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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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beandk
post Aug 10 2011, 12:26 AM

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This 2wong really rajin la. Cut and paste the same thing in three threads. What's the purpose of pasting so many postings?
beandk
post Aug 10 2011, 01:27 AM

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QUOTE(spikyz @ Aug 10 2011, 01:03 AM)
i opt to wait n see..mainly because no cash left already to buy new property. Hahah just managed to get one in d early of this year and its rented.

During time like this..i opt to wait. plus i start investing in precious metal with spare change. Market is very unstable now, plus with no cash to buy new house. i dont have many option rather than wait for "good time" (which i may or may not get).

Lolz, i think it all depends on each person. if u have enough money and think u have a great buy, then go for it. But remember, dont overstrecth ur wallet and budget. dont over borrow and u will be safe.

cheers
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Unfortunately, those who are safe seldom become millionaires. Agree? Anyway, I'd like to urge all forumners to stay strong irregardless of the outcome. I wish everyone the best! Be cheerful always!
beandk
post Aug 24 2011, 02:33 AM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Aug 23 2011, 07:42 PM)
Guys, see if you can get any of these properties at auction. try out yourself...it's fun.  brows.gif
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Are you going for any of the above auctions?
beandk
post Sep 12 2011, 02:00 AM

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QUOTE(chabalang @ Sep 11 2011, 10:52 PM)
{Long post ahead...fellow forumers kindly ignore if  rclxub.gif }

I normally avoid commenting on 'heated' thread but I feel there is a need to address your 'facts' from a source (GlobalPropertyGuide.com) which is based in Manila. While most of their information is sourced from 'valid' sources such as NAPIC or WTW, I need to raise issues on the following items:

(i) From the article: "House prices in Malaysia are still below their pre-Asian Crisis levels". I was scratching my head, is that so? I went to NAPIC website to dig for information and found http://www.jpph.gov.my/V1/pdf/IHRM_Q1_2011_P.pdf .  Try to get the price index from 1980 to 2011 but only managed to get information from 1990 to 2011 on Page 13 of the report. On the surface, all house price index in 1Q2011 (140.7) seemed to be lower than in 1997 (216.8) but it is NOT comparable as the index has been rebased since 2000. With a little mathematical rebasing/linking, the all house price index in 2011 is definitely ABOVE the pre-Asian Crisis levels. As far as I am aware, I do believe most properties (except for some high-rise ones, low-cost and abandoned ones) in Klang Valley and Penang have increased above the pre-Asian crisis levels (pre-1997 price levels). Caveat: I am NOT a property expert like some fellow forumers, maybe some people with more information can throw more light on the pricing.

(ii) From the article: "After the Asian Crisis, prices of luxury detached Kuala Lumpur houses fell by no less than 39%, between 1997 and 1999.". Yes, there were some bungalows in Damansara Heights/Kenny Hills up for sale at 'fire sale prices" during 1998/99 but the "cheap bungalow" supply was rather limited. But they have since recovered and shot past the previous peak in 1996/97. When I was house hunting in 2007/08, my Malaysia-based colleagues mentioned that bungalows in Damansara Heights and Bangsar were the first to run after RPGT removal, and selling prices were already higher than in 1997. Take a look at the detached house price index (for whole M'sia), if 2011 is rebased to compared to 1990s, it is also higher. As for KL, the increase in detached house price index (it's the steepest as well) from 100 (2000) to 187.4 (2010). Detached house price increase is the steepest among different types of housing during 2000s is to be expected as the higher-income group's annual income increase is significantly higher than the lower-income group's...means widening income gap (a common global phenomenon) but also MORE $$$ chasing after high-end properties. I am not saying high-end properties will not drop (anything that moves up too fast will have to "rest/pull back") BUT in the long run, if the rich gets richer and the number of bungalows in Damansara Heights/Kenny Hills remains constant, so what happen? Unless, you feel M'sia has no hope in the future - then all bets are off.

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Back to the topic discussion, fellow forumers are entitled to write their opinions, experiences and etc...that's what make a forum both informative and entertaining. Since I was just discussing on property prices in Klang Valley with some friends over lunch, I am adding our discussion to this thread:

(i) Negative impact from worsening global economic outlook
What Debtismoney mentioned on the dire economic outlook is generally quite true (albeit sounded like Nouriel Roubini)...Europe debt problems are getting worse and US leading economic indicators are also deteriorating-> global economic picture is likely to worsen. M'sia economy will face headwinds and that will dampen demand for properties.

(ii) Negative impact from flippers/speculators/weak holding investors
There could be some fire sale/urgent sales from speculators if the market turn flattish or decline. There is no data on the number of such property flippers/speculators and as such, those with better feel on the ground (e.g. real estate agents) will have a better idea. I can only presume there will be more when the markets get hotter - particularly concerned on those purchased on 5/95 scheme and those buying multiple units on high leverage.

(ii) Positive factors supporting property market
(a) Low interest rates. The current low interest rate environment is expected to last another year or more (Bernanke is holding Fed rate near zero until mid-2013 and with current weak economic outlook, central bankers are inclined to loose monetary policy). The "positive carry" and negative real interest rate is expected to provide support to the property market BUT it is also one of  key factors for the recent skyrocketing properties in KL and regional countries (double-edge sword)

(b) Inflation (or inflationary expectations). This factor is cooling off but was a factor driving/supporting higher property prices in 2009/2010. You can ask around how much building materials and labour costs have gone up in the past five years. How was much was a plate of chicken rice in 2000 and now as compared to a terrace house in PJ during the same period(please consider in percentage increase)? We should consider inflation-adjusted pricing (real term) of the property prices over the period.

( c) Lessons from Asian financial crisis, Lehman liquidity crisis, etc. A number of developers and seasoned investors are already prepared for the upcoming recession...their balance sheets are "cashed up" + low net gearing and ready to acquire 'cheap stuff'. They have all learnt from previous lessons, are much better prepared for the storm ahead and that is expected to provide some support.

(iii) Too fast, too furious
I told my friends that the asking prices of properties (particularly, new launches) have gone bonkers- price increases of more than 60% in two years is just too much. While a couple of them agreed that the "asking price" is getting ridiculous, they asked to me to view the price increase more holistically - to consider:
(a) overall DD/SS (one mentioned Greater Klang Valley population was likely to increase 3%-4%, higher than national average. You can work the annual demand. Supply? - there is limited comprehensive data, even from NAPIC - the numbers are aggregated);
(b) affordability of mortgages (yes, a number of forumers have mentioned stagnated fresh graduate income BUT a friend mentioned to me that the mean household income in Klang Valley is likely to be around RM6,000/mth (it was RM5,011 in 2004) and households in some PJ/USJ areas were around RM8,000-RM10,000 according to his market research survey. I cannot find EPU/DOS/Census latest numbers). A loan of RM500,000 at BLR-2.2% for 25-year tenure is around RM2750/mth - affordable or not?
( c) M'sia property prices have stagnated for a number of years after Asian financial crisis with 911 + SARS + UMNO Youth Keris incident, and only started to move after 2006/2007 but got derailed by global financial crisisin 2008 - so, the price rocketing after that in 2009/2010 with a convergence of favorable factors (low I/R, inflationary pressure, etc.)...during the years post-2000, the mean household income has increased substantially (some forumers may dispute but most of those I know are earning a lot more in 2011 than in 2000).

(iv) Other factors discussed
(a) M'sia politics + increasing polarization in race and religion issues + education system + brain drain + equity market-> all these have impact on demand for properties. In particular, there will be a waiting game (particularly for foreign investors) for GE13 results and consequences...wait-and-see for the local property market. 
(b) I kept harping on housing affordability BUT we went into an unresolved stance..arguing around (i) an average house price in KL is a high multiple of annual household income (ii) mortgage monthly repayment is still reasonably affordable?

My personal opinion is that the local property market is likely to take breather in the coming months (i.e. flattish or even slight decline) but a crash is unlikely UNLESS the whole world goes into a recession deeper than the 2008 one.

My usual disclosure: I am vested in properties with minimal gearing and not a property-industry expert. With my current asset allocation, I will benefit more from a property market downturn.
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A very unbiased write-up backed by good resonings and facts as well. You should write more often. thumbup.gif
beandk
post Sep 14 2011, 01:29 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 14 2011, 12:52 AM)
tmrw, he'll deny it, say people twisted his words, etc... bolehpolitikus like to get attention this way. ignore...
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It's good if he'll be denying it. If really happens then.... doh.gif
beandk
post Nov 1 2011, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(Tikietic @ Nov 1 2011, 03:30 PM)
about last weekend, i ter-spotted an ads in iprop of a dsl house in usj amend the price downwards... an interesting and rare development?

(reminds me of those used cars sale.. pricing them down, down, down as time progresses)
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And your conclusion is property price has already fallen based on this?

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