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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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ManutdGiggs
post Sep 13 2011, 11:17 AM

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I wander people like us communicating in this thread hoping for an up or down in properties?

For me, I hope its up and up and up again. No harm. Like for our salaries, noone will hope to stay stagnant for years.

Hoping for up in properties prices doesnt actually make us any bad as its only opinions from everyone.

Investors or flippers will definitely not hoping for a downturn. People who are not confident can actually join us rather than beat us.

Hopefully we will see another bull run in property market till 2020. Then what you buy today can at least double or triple the price by then. Everyone can retire early. Isnt that good?
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 13 2011, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(tiensong @ Sep 13 2011, 11:24 AM)
I understand your points....but do you know how many percentage of malaysian do not own any property at all?

like what everyone say, richer people will only become more richer...

if bull run in property market till 2020, the gap between rich and poor may become widen...do you think that after you retired, can you live in a happy society (robbery all around and other social problem etc.)
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Haha, good point brother. Actually m afraid of everyone retiring early. If all of us retired, whos gonna work or run businesses. If noone, then who is gonna occupy our properties. Haha. Dilemma.
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 14 2011, 08:54 AM

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If high RPGT is applied, I dun think many buyers will get enought option to purchase as a lot of owners will wait for the correct timing or elevate a little of the price to compensate for the lost in RPGT. Unless the entire group of owners are not able to repay.

With govt proposal of 1 house / person, it might also have a brioght side of it. If developers are smart enought to govern their own production, less development will help to sustain the price level as at now. They can actually play a commodity game to held the output. Anyhow, its all up to the developers. Its still have greed in mind, then regardless of how well the econ in m'sia today, we will still see a little adjustment in the near future.
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 14 2011, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Sep 14 2011, 10:07 AM)
i think most they will impose it on foreigner, if such policy implemented, how r developers going to survive?
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Keep the supply at very minimum and try to strike for the best possible price. At the same time, subsales can also drive up the price when its demand more thaqn supply.
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 23 2011, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Sep 23 2011, 06:09 PM)
it was the last 2008 crisis that pushed our property market up... i still remember end 2008, most people claimed cash is king, dun invest dun simply spend...quietly many went into the Property market..

I am not saying the price of Property will go up futher..just share what i heard/experience in 2008
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Even today when everyone is talking about properties prices slowing down, but I still see lot of people rushing into the market as if properties are at a bargain. Guess what, my friend have an offer to purchase his house at parkcity at RM 1.5 mil when the valuation is at RM 1.3 mil. Buyers are loaded with cash. Just maybe not sure where to spend.

Those who are actually afraid of this crisis are those who owe bank too much. When net liabilities are too high, its not easy to overcome it when the financial crisis hit us. Cash is still the king if you know when to keep it and when to invest it. Some say money is not belong to you if its not spent.

Properties at this moment are still good to invest. But location is very important. KL city, Bangsar, Damansara Heights, Bukit Tunku, TTDI and a few more are actually evergreen. No worries if you are buying with a little more premium. Later, you are gonna enjoy it when it comes to your turn to sell.
ManutdGiggs
post Sep 23 2011, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(macyhouse @ Sep 23 2011, 07:40 PM)
that was on 2008 property price  tongue.gif
yeah right .. when KLCI drop till 1000 ... i see you want to dump money in stock or property  whistling.gif
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U r rite too. I still buy into stocks even now. No need to wait till 1000. V wouldn't know if it ll b 500?
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 1 2011, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 1 2011, 10:57 AM)
i am not interested in residential prop, enuf oredi..troublesome to manage.
any chance shop price fall back to 2 years ago?  about half the price?
to me, even drop 20-30% consider a big bargain. consider as bonus to me if drop more..


Added on October 1, 2011, 11:01 amvery difficult to buy shop directly from developer.. all sapu by insider/fren. 
but now seems easier. developer are launching to the public..eg M city etc. but still expensive. hope subsales can drop a bit.
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subsales ll not gonna drop so easily or so soon boss. those buying shops r rich n like gangster. holding it even with lower % of rental. went bangsar w frenz last few wks to survey de price. super high man. 5yrs ago 3+mil. now 6+mil oso hav to think again. 1 of my frenz holding 5 units. tis fello can retire liao if sell all.

if u really looking for new shops, pls pm me ur budget. i can help get fr developers.
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 6 2011, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Oct 6 2011, 08:42 AM)
Formula to become millionare...

$$ borrow from bank + Prop capital apppreciation = Millionare/Multimillionare on paper
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We should never declare the props r ours when v r stil loaded w bank debts. Nothing to b proud of when its stil belong to banks. Can onli call ourselves slaves to the banks.

Sad!!!
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 8 2011, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Oct 8 2011, 08:53 PM)
Singapore is a financial hub, it has capital inflow from other countries.

Services industry - engineering, healthcare, insurance, banking, finance, advertising, entertainment etc. It all ties to physical stuff consumption. It's not about the particular country is services based economy or natural resources exporter.

Dude, without physical stuff (natural resources - coal, fresh water, cotton, oil, timber, rice, iron ore, copper etc) how to grow perpetually? Without infinite supply of energy, cement and steel how to build luxury apartments/hotels/casinos in Singapore forever non stop?

I'm not arguing with you, just want to let people know, when we reach the peak supply of physical stuff, we will all be in big trouble...
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Agreed, in some way?!?

ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(golfphunk @ Oct 16 2011, 10:12 PM)
developer may just focus on developing further lands away from the city for affordability..

if prices drop..im sure someone is there to snap it up.. =)
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No worries. One Q. R u gonna sell when it's not up to de price u wan? So I stil dun think it's gonna drop in price.

U r very rite tat developers ll build further away fr city. Lots a developers now focus at places like kajang, semenyih, rawang, bangi, etc etc.
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Oct 17 2011, 01:56 AM)
If the interest rate goes high, there will be a few who won't afford to pay the monthly installment. They were paying $500 a month. Now they have to pay $1,000 a month because interest rates are 12 percent. What happens? They can't make the payment. What do they do? They sell the house, or they try to hang in there for a while until the house gets repossessed, and the bank sells it. Either way, the house is getting sold. The house then goes on the market, adding to the supply glut of homes for sale. It's not just this one family that's affected, because interest rates affect everyone. Suddenly, a large group of homeowners can't make the payments all at once.
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Assumption is alwiz assumption. 12% was a history long ago. I've no idea if it's gonna happen again or it could b higher than tat sooner or later, or never.

1 more Q, r u ready to face it or runaway fr wat u assumed ll happen? If u hav chosen to live w it, then b a man n face it. Plan A or B or C. Whichever plan u hav. But if u hav chosen to stay away, actually u r living in denial. I would rather face it. No matter wat ll happen, s long s v r ready n well prepared or equipped, I dun c any big prob. Econ cycles come n go. 1984, 1997, 2002/3, 2007, or later, those who r not prepared for raining day ll suffer. Those who r smart enuf ll enjoy n growth their wealth even more. opportunities r for those who r prepared for it.

Life is short. Few 10 yrs of life r not much. Do wat u think is worth doin when v r stil capable. Worries ll only make our life suffer.

Eg. I would rather live 60-70 yrs n eat wateva I like. I ll not live 100 yrs eating food I dun like. In tis case, I hav planned well for my family members. They ll enjoy de fruits when I'm no longer w them. If v plan well, it's not de matter when r v buying or selling, it's where about v r investing.

No obligation boss. Just IMHO.
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Oct 17 2011, 11:02 AM)
"US, Europe is different, govt are not allowed to intervene."............you sure or not?  Have you heard of bailout before?  If you don't call that market intervention, what is???
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Tats y v dun alwiz look at others. Otherwise many ll go invest oversea liao. I hav to giv credit to those who r optimistic enuf bout de props price goin up or at least sustain. S mentioned by Lucerne kor kor, Danaharta is 1 solution. But out of the whole nation, how many props r taken over by Danaharta??? My relative worked there. I was even offered a few props to buy then. S I mentioned b4, opportunities r for those who r well prepared, of cos well equiped oso la. Back in 1997-2002, I hav seen many props offered to public by Danaharta. I hav oso seen lotsa ppl rushing to buy. Y?Y?Y? Cheapo??? Not really. Its just very simple. Smart ppl alwiz spare for raining day. FD is 1 strong criteria to grab tis offer. Bank ll come into the pic to help if u hav handsome FD amount w them.

For speculators, I would suggest u guys start saving a bit. Not need to go all out la. Chinese says, if its belong to u, it ll end up urs. Otherwise no need to blame or force la. (Sori har, my england not so good la)

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Oct 17 2011, 12:03 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 17 2011, 12:34 PM)
well i m not a speculator, but loading up now to buy cheap prop in coming months. can not get one in 1997 but hope to get some good prop in 2012.. especially shops and factory lots.
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Lucerne kor kor. I didn't mean u la. Sori misund. It's alwiz best choice to buy shops n factories. But location is de main concern. Concept is important too. Old type of shops like shop apartment or shop ofis obsolete. Now ppl need thgs like giza, damen, velocity, icon city etc. But theres a price to pay for to get new concept investment.

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Oct 17 2011, 12:53 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Oct 17 2011, 01:24 PM)
i'm speculator,  nod.gif
but i have disposed most of the units, and see what will happen in 2012/13  rclxm9.gif


Added on October 17, 2011, 1:26 pmi still believe it won't drop much, because the statement highlighted below proven since many many years ago:-
“Because it is a market that has no shorting mechanism, it has a tendency to rise rather than fall, unless the fundamentals pulling it down are strong,”
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Good for u. Smart har boss. Earn how much. Can share ga?
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Oct 17 2011, 03:34 PM)
well, don't expect there's a cheap stuff as 1997, i think many people miss understand that there's a forecast heavy drop price at 2012/13, if that's the case; is a financial crisis then!
i'm not expert, but i would say the definition of drop means only a price correction, just give simple example:-
bought a under construction unit with 500k and VP on 2012/13, target to sell at 750-800k and advertise it, due to too many VP in same time and current demand, seller start lower down the price to 680-700k, and finally deal with 600-630k.
another example; a completed project with original launched since 2009 with 500k, current dealed and market price at 750-800k this year, due to the weak market and demand on 2012/13, seller only manage to deal at 720-770k.
i would say the price still remain high, just the escalation curve become flat or stagnant, whoever thinking to buy from developer and for own stay, don't expect any new launch with below market price.
otherwise i'll not keep some rented units if there's a heavy drop next year.
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Well said dude. I'm in diff position. I dun own any but I'm managing my bosses props which can fetch handsome return. Factory bot less than 5yrs ago can double de price with 4. Offers at a time. It onli happened in tis few wks. My bosses view r diff. They refuse to sell. They r terbalik a bit wan. Proposed rental increment due to good asking price. Is tis a Gd way too???
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Oct 17 2011, 10:22 PM)
Exactly bro. The fact has spoken. Currently the household debt is around RM500 billion!


Added on October 17, 2011, 10:25 pmThe only reason property prices went up drastically is because of this easy, cheap loans!
In reality we are heading towards doomsday..
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Wat ll happen if everyone is able to repay. 20yrs later all of us ll enjoy de fruits???
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 17 2011, 10:39 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Oct 17 2011, 10:33 PM)
lol..he will show you household debt 2,000.0 billions in 2031.
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True oso wo. But $$$ depreciate ma. So 2031 - 2,000.00 billions is like wat, 500 mil today???

Think.
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 18 2011, 06:50 AM

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QUOTE(Fazab @ Oct 17 2011, 11:17 PM)
What if a number of 'someone's did not think of taking care? You know, plain reckless, or maybe blinded by greed?

The official figure of 47 bankrupts a day is rather scary
We have people who are not very good at taking care of themselves.
And a lot of them, it would seem.

Yes, these are credit cards and car loans.
We will know the figures for house loans defaulters come 2012 when a lot of props are VP and the payment starts.

Seriously, I myself hope I am wrong and you are right.
But numbers shouldn't be ignored just because they don't fit our theory.
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Hav u heard of PINJAM NAMA? Lots a idiots giv their names for wateva reason. Then get more $$$ at de end n dun mind to go broke. De person who gav money benefit de most. Benefit like, profit in biz, purchase of land under Malay reserve or etc etc.

Dun forget, bankrupt ppl mostly took up personal loan.

So think again. How many would hav go broke due to props.

Anyway, I dunno how to comment further if there r ppl hoping for crash. Dun blame me for being optimistic. All facts or figures given r prediction. Happen or not, it's only god ll know. Just like share market in Cantonese. GU PIU. GU GU HA only.


Added on October 18, 2011, 6:56 am
QUOTE(hazairi @ Oct 17 2011, 10:43 PM)
Ok, enough of me repeating the household debt. Now let's look into disposable income. Now read this:

"Looking at the problem from the ratio of household debt to disposable income, this ratio is 140.4  per cent for Malaysia, one of the highest in the world; above that of Singapore at 105.3  per cent, USA at 123.3  per cent and Thailand at 52.7 per cent in 2009. This means that the loans taken by each household in Malaysia is on average 1.4 times more than its household income. 

Since both the household debt service ratio and the household debt to disposable income are average figures, in reality it will be those in the lower income group who are at greater risk of not being able to pay off the monthly instalments.

Spending using borrowed funds can boost economic growth but it can also slow the economy when households are forced to restrain spending in order to service their loans. Thus there are unfavourable policy implications and economic impact when household debt keeps rising."

Conclusion:

- Malaysian household debt to disposable income, ratio is 140%
- Loans taken by each household in Malaysia is on average 1.4 times more than it's household income.

Just imagine your salary is RM1000 per month but you hv to pay monthly instalment loans of RM1400. The debt will keep on pumping. That's the reality that is happening to us all. It's a fact. Now please give me some facts that can deny my theory.. smile.gif
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My advise. Dun b de lower income grp lo. Haha. Joking only. Not tat easy rite. Yeah tats rite. Work hard. Work for ur dream. Being too pessimistic ll not bring u any good. Buddy, relax, even if it's really crash, s I said, prepare for it n face it. It ll get over.


Added on October 18, 2011, 6:57 am
QUOTE(hazairi @ Oct 17 2011, 10:43 PM)
Ok, enough of me repeating the household debt. Now let's look into disposable income. Now read this:

"Looking at the problem from the ratio of household debt to disposable income, this ratio is 140.4  per cent for Malaysia, one of the highest in the world; above that of Singapore at 105.3  per cent, USA at 123.3  per cent and Thailand at 52.7 per cent in 2009. This means that the loans taken by each household in Malaysia is on average 1.4 times more than its household income. 

Since both the household debt service ratio and the household debt to disposable income are average figures, in reality it will be those in the lower income group who are at greater risk of not being able to pay off the monthly instalments.

Spending using borrowed funds can boost economic growth but it can also slow the economy when households are forced to restrain spending in order to service their loans. Thus there are unfavourable policy implications and economic impact when household debt keeps rising."

Conclusion:

- Malaysian household debt to disposable income, ratio is 140%
- Loans taken by each household in Malaysia is on average 1.4 times more than it's household income.

Just imagine your salary is RM1000 per month but you hv to pay monthly instalment loans of RM1400. The debt will keep on pumping. That's the reality that is happening to us all. It's a fact. Now please give me some facts that can deny my theory.. smile.gif
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My advise. Dun b de lower income grp lo. Haha. Joking only. Not tat easy rite. Yeah tats rite. Work hard. Work for ur dream. Being too pessimistic ll not bring u any good. Buddy, relax, even if it's really crash, s I said, prepare for it n face it. It ll get over.

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Oct 18 2011, 06:57 AM
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 18 2011, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 18 2011, 12:16 PM)
that is more true than not, imo.
low productivity and incr debt is what is plaquing many nations.
bolehsia's national debt at 51% gdp now, the law will need amendment when it hits 55%:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ng-warns-anwar/
one can argue 70% is still fine since usa is at 100% and took greece at 180% to see riots on the streets.
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Sori in advance to those young ppl here. I personally think tat young gen now r more speculative. Productivity wise, hmmm, not so. Most young gen prefer fast money. Older ppl more down to earth. I'm not old but since very young I dealt with old guys. I'm a drop out here. The onli cert I hav is 'SIJIL MASYARAKAT'. I hav seen ppl fall fr very peak to very low. WHY??? Greed!!!

Lotsa ppl now try to flip for profit. Tis r opportunists. Not investors.

Anyway, s some mentioned, diff ppl diff thinking. Maybe its bcos m KIASI so cant able to earn quick money. HAHAHA

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Oct 18 2011, 07:12 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Oct 18 2011, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Oct 18 2011, 09:10 PM)
thanks for the correction. I was also thinking about something went wrong with my calculation LOL.

Anyway, the point is, our household debt is very2 high and it's in a critical zone now.


Added on October 18, 2011, 9:11 pm

Exactly, I'm preparing for it. I'm piling up my cash to wait for the big bargain.. smile.gif
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Good luck boss. Dun forget to acknowledge me if u hav any good offer.

Tq

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