jfrymdwsz: i am not sure, but it should be under 300, +150 service fee, about 4xx. sometimes they are very nice enough will give 20% discount.
which body and check out the seller background. if the person shoots event often, or does wedding, portrait outing a lot, that easily cover 30k shutter each year. i know i reach 70k now with 2 year 3 month old A300. and i dont shoot that much

for how long it last, it really depend on luck rather then statistic, i dropped my camera once (ouch) in taiwan and broke my hotshoe, but still working, 70k and counting. i hear people passing 100k, and left the camera in storage after getting a new one. but i also seen people who have camera died at under 20k shutter.
usually i think mirror will break before shutter, the plastic holder for the mirror is just plastic, usually it will break before the shutter unit. watch out for abnormal mirror action (extra sound from mirror slap).
8tvt: depends, like me, i never reset/format my card. (unlike some people claim that you have to format your card to prevent card error/crashing, i
never once had memcard crash/corrupt) after 9999, a new folder
YYYxx1 will be created,
YYYxx2/3/4/5 and so on, so the 1,2,3,4,5 will let u know that photo number in 10th of thousand
flysheep: few possibility,
i) it will prompt error XX which i have no idea what, because i never seen one.
ii) shutter might still work, but at diff speed then expected, output will be in wrong exposure~!
iii) broke during shutter release, u hear a magnetixc noise, something like SSS, bbeerrzzzzzbzbzbzz
ahpingko:mine reach 70k already

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if shutter break under warranty period, just send in for repair for FOC. but, do not have drop mark, else they will declare as human self inflict damage.
it was claim min 150k or 1 year, which ever expired first. but seldom got ppl pass 50k(average 160 shutter per
day) on first year, so usually it expired base on 1 year warranty first. but warranty for shutter will void if u have extended 2 years (alltogether 3 year) and u pass 150k shutter.