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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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sunzi69
post Jun 5 2011, 05:06 PM

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i'm 25..a fresh graduate graduated from UK majoring in finance just landed on a Management associate job in 1 of the MNC in Malaysia...

starting pay- RM2300 (to be revised after completion of the 2 years training program)

feel like freaking stressful when talking about this property prices..

For others may perceive that Foreign grad that got a MTP job in MNC seems to have a lot of bright prospect but i seem myself very gloomy future down the road....

I am local and my great grandfather follow Yap Ah Low to develop the KL raw land ...but now seems like i can't even have my own 5 feet place to sleep( to own a house) *those speculate jerks who didn't contribute to the economy but everyday just going to new launch development site to sign a few S&P documents ,few more months back pass back the title to freshie like us and earn the "jackpot" with appreciation gain out of nothing...

People like us work like hell from 9am to 9pm in MNC just able to fork out few hundreds to save in a month...

But people like those freaking rich auntie just buying properties like buying vegetables ,5 units in 1 new lauching project, b4 get CF, gain 50k appreciate, Sell... 50k x 5 = 250k

we freshie only managed to save RM300 per month, it will take how long to reach RM250k... but auntie just put few thousands for downpayment to developer, few months later, magic show starts, RM250k cash in ..wink ^_* ( definately she will sing the Rihanna's song .. don't stop the music.. come ..young man..keep buying.. agent asking buy now ..if not few months back increase again... developer asking.. no bubble.. buy buy buy ..so that they can sell to u more more more at HIGHER and SKY HIGH Price) i knew i ady have written in a very emotional way ady... haha..but i just can't help it...

ok..after emo from my right brain.. it's to use my left brain to analyse..

According to Property Price to income ratio, Malaysia seems quite low compared to Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, China ,Taiwan, Korea (see any similarities ??)

1. They are all Chinese origin, we Chinese custom from 5000 years back, die die must have a house to start a family)

2. They are all very developed country in economic sense...but Malaysia?? hehe..are we??

this is what I object what the agent said about Malaysia property price is much cheaper now compared to Hong kong and Singapore...
but ahem..excuse me...do we earn as much as HongKee and Singaporen or Japanese?? what are their GDP per capita???

World Ranking (by USD) GDP per Capita as at 2010 (sources from IMF)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...l%29_per_capita

15 Singapore 43,117
16 Japan 42,820
24 Hong Kong 31,591
25 Brunei 31,239 (surprise me, Brunei.wow)
33 South Korea 20,591
37 Taiwan 18,458
50 Libya 11,314 (lol..even Libya just got attack also doing better than Malaysia by far percentage..are we ashamed or not?? )

65 Malaysia 8,423
94 China 4,382 (dun forget PRC has 1.3billion ppl)

(comment a bit above)
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan,Korea needs not to say..They ady get rid of medium income trap.. their economy can producing high value add on products and rakyat enjoy high income so that high property price still can sustainable...

moreover, Singapore and Hong Kong do have a protective security net for low income group, they can't buy private house, still have "HIGH QUALITY HDB Flats" for the citizen.. but What About Malaysia???

Our Goverment said RM3k is considered HIGH INCOME group?? but bloody hell..do u think RM3k alone can afford to buy a house??? say cheers to urself in tat particular month if u no need borrow RM300 from ur parents or cash advance from credit card if u r living in KL...

so.. I earning 3k ,Gov said i ady high income group, suppose I should not have the problem to own a property ,rite? since I am so "success".. but the fact is ???

what about those low income group below 3k??? what about the new generation future?? yeah.. 18 years education n training in Malaysia... Singapore Gov get it all talents for free.. TQ very much for ur highly productive workforce n cheap as well...

okay..come to an article on Household debt in Malaysia – Is it sustainable? — S.M.Mohamed Idris
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/breakin....mohamed-idris/

According to Bank Negara’s Annual Report 2010, Malaysia’s household debt at end of 2010 was RM 581 billion or 76 per cent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The Bank claimed that the household debt is still manageable because of income growth, high levels of savings and favourable employment opportunities.

Malaysian household debt service ratio
39.1 per cent in 2006
49.0 per cent in 2009
47.8 per cent in 2010.

(Meaning to say earning RM100, almost half of paying off housing, car instalment, credit card)
left RM50, then what else?? not to say
1)insurance (getting more n more expensive due to medical inflation)
2) daily meal allowance ( food price hike like hell, sugar,what else?)
3) utilities ( TNB naik lagi)
4) transportation (no more subsidy, transporter said wanna increase again)
5) ptptn fee
6) children tuition fee
7) grocery
8)internet
9)mobile
10) basic entertainment (movie..etc)
11)parents allowance
12) car maintenance
13) gf maintenance
*take note, item 12 or 13 could be very expensive too ..hehe ^^ depend on individual
14) savings (Masih ada meh???? sudah negative lor ....)

n Please pray to God or Allah or Buddha or whatever, that no1 in ur family fall sick or need emergency treatment, as 1 minor surgery could cost you nearly bankrupt....

and Answer to BNM item 2)high levels of savings
1)we young generation will have no money to save
2) Old generation save becoz they don't see any productive economy opportunity to invest, or worried for the future, only thing, goreng stock and goreng property la..is it health to an economy??

and BNM item 1) income growth and 3)employment opportunities are in certain correlation from my point of view..

as what Najib is proposing ..ETP (yes, Economic Transformation Program)...sounds glamorous and shed a light to a gloomy gen-y youngster like me..

What I only know..Mr.Prime MInister.. sebelum kita jadi HIgh Income Country, sekarang ni sudah High Burden la...apa pun naik, gaji tak naik...
have a look on the latest http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index....emid=89&lang=en

my lecturer said , he earns RM2300 in Standard Charted Bank also once he graduated back in 20 years ago...
but now , I also earning RM2300 after graduated from UK..

at that time, he bought a bangsar landed property just cost him around RM30k..
i just check on bangsar landed property just now, it shows Bangsar,RM13,2Million (RM380.00 psf)

Bangsar Property price increased by 440 x
Fresh Grad Salary increased by 0 x (stagnant )

once again- well done.. Bolehland!!!

let's talk about Income growth and Employment Opportunities...
definately we Malaysia ady fall into Middle income trap countries..
To producing high quality services and products like Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Japan (Can we or Do we able to fight??)
(Singapore and Hong Kong have a world class financial centre, logistic port, free corruption n busines friendly environment, do we have tat???)
(Japan can made high quality and cheap Toyota or Korea can made hyundai or LG)
What We Malaysian proud of ?? Making Proton cars ?? but still need protection??? and cost we Malaysian paying so high instalment for a ok ok proton for such a high price and sacrifice our quality of life...

To achieve a high income country > to able produce high value of services or product n efficient > can we product high tech or value product services > (do we have tat talents?? or able to attract the talents or could we have the efficient and skillful workforce???) > to attract those talent > what is our gov policy or our current environment??

write till here...my paid is freaking low(RM2300 for junior)..but the same equivalent job i could earn about SGD3500 in senior position (about RM7500).. about 3x what i earn in Malaysia...

so don't say we young generation not loyalty or to serve our country ...(but i dunno why i still serve my contribution in Malaysia becoz my family is here .. n I still love KL n it's my root)

btw,1 last sentence..
Looking at the problem from the ratio of household debt to disposable income, this ratio is 140.4 per cent for Malaysia, one of the highest in the world; above that of Singapore at 105.3 per cent, USA at 123.3 per cent and Thailand at 52.7 per cent in 2009. This means that the loans taken by each household in Malaysia is on average 1.4 times more than its household income.

yes.. no.1 in the world 140.4 percent for household debt to disposable income ...yes..we r more serious than sub-prime buyers in U.S and yet ppl say we Malaysia will not happen that what happened in U.S...

i just wondering if ppl stop repaying their repayment n go bust, Banks surely are the one whose get affected drastically....if bank no money channeling out money out...surely tighten of credit supply...a mere property price bubble burst could trigger the stock marke collapse hence the hit into the real economy....it just like what happened in 1997..

perhaps 1 big event i believed which might started in China will initiate a contagion effect on the Asian region and sweep away all the excess liquidity in the market and once again 1997 Asian financial Crisis will once ..the history repeat itself again.. it's a circle anyway driven by human greedy n fear...

so.. the music chair ..see when the music stops la...

n i think very soon .....

This post has been edited by sunzi69: Jun 5 2011, 05:41 PM
sunzi69
post Jun 5 2011, 06:50 PM

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Unexpected.. TQ kochin & chabalang for ur so positive n promt feedback to open my view.. thought surely i'll got a screw from all the elders who will despise me who only know how to complaint...hehe

I have no idea how people outside self-bragging how easily they can easily make tonnes of money but for me a fresh grad like me, earning money is really not that easy..feeling the pinch of inflation ady..

I think it explains why young people (Gen-Y) are so impatient and the turnover in corporate is so high as compared to my father's generation...
MY CEO advice to our MAs- "You Young People only needs to remember 1 thing, my only advice, Be Patient! Time will come and you will have your chance"

but We hor...everyday c the property's price har..cannot be patient anymore.. that's the root of problem..

but realized that keep changing job is not wise enough unless u ady carried the skills or something valuable in ur org to jump over to another org...then only u will have the bargainable power to ask for higher salary.. hehe

I think if Gov wanna make Kuala Lumpur a world class financial centre.. please consider if these financial talent's income can afford to pay for the accommodation in this financial centre..

1)as far as i know, there are a few financial services company in Malaysia doing outsourcing job supporting Asia Pacific region (we got the deal i think is at expense of our lower labor cost la...
1 of my batch graduated in UK too- book prize winner in banking and finance)
Ended up working in C bank(MNC)Trade Finance supporting Asia business - everyday work from 10am to 10pm (pity her, coz Taiwan always revert things back at 4 or 5pm ,then only they can start work, must finish daily basis)
She is earning RM2300 (including bonus, she doesn't have any bonus and Ct Bank claims that extra RM300 is ady considered her bonus so in fact her basic salary is only RM2000)

Her sisters all landed a well-paid job in Singapore .e.g. SIA (i have strong feeelings that must be 6 out of 10 SIA stewardess are from Malaysia, I have damn lots of frens working in SIA) and becoz of she has to take care her old aged mother, she can't go to Singapore but end up working in MNC with only RM2000 basic salary and hardly could survive in the heart of Kuala Lumpur...if not,1 more grad will be working in Singapore again..hehe)

I'm lucky enough to get into a MAP programme out of few hundreds candidate and believe that I can have a bright future..but my colleagues whose are those clerical or officer in the age of 30-40..with income less than 2.5k ..I really have no idea how they can survive in Kuala Lumpur?? so interested to know so that they can teach me how to swim in the ocean...ahahaha

back to the topic above,
if i can't afford to buy a house in the heart of KL, probably i will ask for reallocation my work station to places like Seremban , Melaka or Ipoh..perhaps few hundreds bucks already can rent a big double storey house.. haha...


This post has been edited by sunzi69: Jun 5 2011, 06:58 PM
sunzi69
post Jun 11 2011, 02:57 AM

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it's me again, 25 year old fresh grad who's complaining can't afford to buy property...

well, to conclude a bit.. basically, there are 2 camps arguing in this forum ..those who ady in the boat, n another was people like me..can't afford to buy...

Those ady in the boat( Developers, Bankers, Valuers, houseowners, Investors, Speculators)
(play monopoly b4? u guys are as if those just bought the "little green n red" house earlier and setting high prices, and worst still, the 100 u earned last time is different with what we earned 100 this time...we are those "late comers" who came into the show n realized that " OMG.. it's freaking expensive...with the poor salary $200 collected every round, we keep on paying rental n taxes, yes ,of coz, we will broke soon, just admit it, this is the design of capitalism, n we have to admit it, it doesn't fair to late comers)

I do notice 1 forumer mentioned that "Demand is there" ..no worries...but do you understand the principle of economy is that "inverse relationship between demand and price"?

now all properties incl condo ady Sky high price - even though u willing to sell, young ppl willing to buy (but bank may not approve with relatively so low salary...) and pls don't blame the graduates that earning so little..it's not our fault...

I see many hardworking and talented graduates are performing exceptionally outstanding in academic and co-curriculum but as i said, u good in studies may not indicate good in "earning $$$".... there's no direct relationship....

what i could say our economy is distorted n sucks.... we have many high quality of graduates but with well trained, they can become somebody..believe me...

I use "Finance services" in economy as an example to give us a better picture...

Current M'sia job market:-

For example, take a finance major grad- who learned simply everything from A to Z in finance, how to hedge ,by what products (SWAP, forwards, futures) or how to price it? To apply Enterprise Risk Management to manage interest rate risk, liquidity risk, forex risk...To explain Basel III capital requirement ..Capital Market Master Plan..Ratio analysis..Bond Valuation..n etc) wow- U.S and UK syllabus... great!!!

I believe my UK syllabus is exactly same as what Singaporean learning as well ..but the difference is they got very good internship exposure n can landed on a very good first job...We Malaysia finance graduates most of the time doing the following:-

Banking jobs "generally" available in Job market of Malaysia -
In Generally- promoting credit card, personal loan, credit processing, credit recovery, balance transfer , etc.......

(Why our salary so low?? Simply, Bolehland can't attract FDI to produce high quality jobs who paid high salary)

take http://www.efinancialcareers.sg/ as example (as at 11/6/2011 1.36am)
1) to sort "jobs in Singapore"
> results show Showing 1-30 of 1104 jobs

2) to sort "jobs in Malaysia"
> results show Showing 1-28 of 28 jobs

(lol - pity us...SG had 39 times more than us )
(i pity myself too, perhaps i'm a loser why i'm not 1 of it that working in Raffles place in SG too...hehe)

Have a look
MALAYSIA JOB MARKET (derived from Jobstreet.com.my - Banking and finance jobs)
user posted image

[SIZE=7]SINGAPORE JOB MARKET (derived from efinancialcareer- Banking and finance jobs)
[cool.gif
user posted image


My point of view...

Singapore HDB (good quality houses, and can't compare at all with Malaysia low cost flat(some called it slum, and i admit), it respects the dignity and basic necessity for people who serve for the country)
Singapore Private dwellings- it caters for investors or speculators like some of you reading in this thread...if u got money, buy la..., no 1 will object)

Malaysia- whoever who invest in stock market also knew...
we ady lost FDI support long long time ago...now whose money to support the market at the level of 1500 ??? u tot our economy is really that good?? (YOUR ALL or OUR ALL own EPF money la, or our future generation MONEY)

aiyar.. I 25 years old.. i also know la..b4 general election come..

wow..stock market good..property market good..strong currency ...visionary future greater KL plan....100 mega storey...

simple economics theory, 3 pillars to boost the economy..
1) Export (b4 1997 crisis strategy- 4 little tiger ah....hehe...die soon la..totally lose out to Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, we ady stuck in middle income trap economy)
2) Private Consumption (last few years strategy la- c our household debt now, look layman beside u, every month after pay instalment, how much they leave??)
3) Government Spending (Last shot la- copy Dr.M strategy, Petronas Twin Towers, KLIA, now we have 100 Stories Tower, MRT project, Iskandar, Greater KL) Last time also got what MSC ah, CyberJaya ah, sigh...we always very "visionary" but in terms of execution ...sucks...

so...to attract pool of talents?? on what grounds??

1) higher inflation
2) low salary
3) high property price
4)high crime rate
5)high traffic congestion rate
6)highly career prospect??

perhaps i think
1)nasi lemak
2)rojak
3)kajang satay
4)roti canai

are the factors who could attract the talents back....ahahahaha


Singapore- Higher property price value can be justified (limited land,the value they created in their job, efficiency, strict law and regulation that do not tolerate corruption, friendly business environment, safety,etc)

Malaysia - on what grounds we property so expensive???
- limited land ar????
- our economy is so "good"???
- very high demand??? (many expats wanna come here to live, work n play???)

so..Minister n people..
dun always use the stupid reason to make comparison to compare la....
our oil and gas is still the cheapest in the region ( see Singapore how much, hey, we producing oil n gas,ok?)
our property prices are still very low in the region ( hey...ppl earning SGD ok ? ppl got HDB ok? u want all young ppl what ? staying in slum? or everyday travel from Seremban to KL ??)

what i only knew.. not only our property prices in distorted
our economy surely will burst soon..yeah
n we all Malaysian n future generation paid for it...

Come on la people( pls be considerate to the young ones, dun suka suka u guys still got option,> low cost flat, in fact, i been thru tat as well, everyday have to reach home earlier to fight for the car park, if too late, stuck ur car behind ppl car, then w/o ur handbreak, morning, let ppl move ur car freely up n down n pray earnestly not rolling down the slopes)
at 1am when u need to sleep after a heavy work, pray those "black ppl" not getting drunk n having party n open disco, in fact, i ady make telephone call to report to Police many times, u know, how efficient is our public services, reach within 30 mins, tegur a bit, they stop the loud music a while, then continue again, if u go to argue with the "black ppl", they will belasah you...malicious damage to ur car" ... n hope do not bring back ur gf or if u happen to have a daughter, be afraid of sexual harrassment, rape, stalker or whatever u called it... drug addicits are common to c ...stolen cars ..motorcycle...n etc )

sigh ....Malaysia.....
(Note- and i'm talking on a overview of macro picture n pls dun tell me how one individual is by all his efforts earning how much n how much...n telling me it's my fault that i earned less than RM10k a month, come on , just admit it ,it's a matter of fact our economy is almost stretch to the end ady and we all eyeing on the ETP....but ETP is just a vision , in terms of execution, many political factors discounted inside la)

This post has been edited by sunzi69: Jun 11 2011, 03:32 AM
sunzi69
post Jun 18 2011, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 12 2011, 11:38 PM)
of coz must also include their net gain from investments lah eg oversea + msia prop, shares, gold etc. once your income is higher, u tend to able to take more risks and invest more.  the gain are higher for the last 10years, favoring gold, prop etc.
of coz salary in oversea is much higher, usually 3-5x vs msia. (depend on country) they are now multi millionaires due to the multiplier effect. (high salary + investments)


Added on June 12, 2011, 10:59 pm

as far as i know not many chinese invest in share market, (china share is limited liquidity mostly control by govt, very similar to msia epf, khazanah etc),  chinese invest mainly in prop. individual foreigner cant buy china share but ok to buy prop. china govt just banned foreigner buying prop since last year, this is the main reason the prop price dropped recently. but china prop hv been increased for about 5x in last 10years. so if the prop now drop 20-30% i think many chinese will jump in to buy again (now only dropped less than 5%) and push up the price. if china govt to open to foreigner to buy again, the prop price will go crazy again. i hv many sg, hk, taiwan, msia fren are waiting to invest china prop again. initially they want to invest in msia but they now prefer china ..waiting for the buy signal.
*
one needs understand China Socio-economic situation to explain this..
the skyrocketed housing prices in China could be attributed to their
1)one child policy [4 person = parents + parents in law total's money + bank mortgages to jack up the properties' price]

2)monetary policy doesn't work at all (China has the craziest underground finance market, tat's y recently RR(reserve requirement has raised to historically high standing at 21 or 22%, forgot exactly how many la, read it yesterday from BBC), China can't hike interest rate anymore, it could affect their export oriented economy, n well,higher interest rate attract more hot money flow in, it will build up the "pressure"of revaluation of RenMimBi, and US politician will find a good reason to attack again,)

3)the respective province Gov's GDP KPI (3 pillars of GDP, export led business- many die due to western weak demand, private consumption- rural areas where can boost, only leave Mega Project and Residential Projects,the only way to goreng this la to increase province Goverment's income..)

4)china gov highly recognize and ady implemented dozen of non-monetary policy to curb the skyrocketed housing price, 1 of it including invited singapore goverment to assist in their successful HDB implementation, and etc,etc....c how humble is China Gov ..they are too big but humble enough the learn the secret recipe of Singapore...

5)we ady could c "they are symptoms of social uneasiness and tensions" in China (but they are good in dealing this) and how a Jasmine revolution evolved from a "vegetable cart owner" to claim his cart back to feed his family of eight..

sigh..anyway..personally, i'm not socialist activist ..but Property shall be divided into 2 markets
1)HDB- pricing monopoly by gov..doing it as social responsibility..anyway human just wants a place to stay
2)2nd market for ppl to goreng, free market, u want how luxurious also tak ape..

*p.s. talking to my "Malay" colleague..
(bang, skrang kos beban tinggi oh, you anak berapa, kos beban tinggi kan?)
(tak ade la,jika lahir anak, kita ada "rezeki")

well..self-explantory...i don't have any rezeki...u can compare my weight n ur weight la..
i eat so little..n think so much...haha
u eat so many... n think little... lol


Added on June 18, 2011, 4:54 pmwell... how i conclude there's a bubble..

if "money" suppose to channel into "productive business" to produce products, services to beneficial to people already start "leaving out" to channel into "property market"..

that's a start of building up of the storm of property's bubble..

simple: ur businesmen fren got say...sigh..nowadays difficult to do business 1 la..gross profit so little..hard to chase back the money..

i rather go goreng property la..dumb some money in, a while, cash some money out...

the above scenario do happens ady indicate a red flag to a healthy economic running...

any??pls share??

& any1 who interested "how vulnerable" it is for our Economy..
would like to invite u to c this
"http://dapmalaysia.org/newenglish/DAP_Budget_2010_en.pdf"

i'm nothing to do with politics, just coincidentally they have the economy report, hehe..save my research time n cost"
Enjoy.. n be prepared...

i'll be seeing Prime Minister this coming week in a Youth Corporate Malaysia event..any1 interested to go ar?
wish i have the guts to raise this in the Q&A sessions later but i knew i won't...hehe
so i hope the seniors can step out on behalf of this for the sake of younger generation...
their son n daughter maybe brows.gif

This post has been edited by sunzi69: Jun 18 2011, 05:05 PM

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