Point 1 and 2 you are referring to Japan but point 3 is not bcos japanese still obligated to work in office.. I agree country like japan, property is not a good investment as it depreciate. The one that hold the value is the land...

But this is Malaysia.. transportation is still lack behind by half a century..

Malaysian still very productive and no sign of population shrinking.. even though if we reached stagnant growth, urban migration still play an important key factor in urban population increase, particularly Klang Valley.. you dont often hear ppl migrate from KL to Pahang to work, all ppl around you flock into KL from all over the place..

Your point number 3 has little to no impact.. even retirees wants to leave an a conducive environment and good amenities.. choosing a place to stay is not always want to be near to work place but some ppl prefer to move to suburbs, get a landed prop and less hectic environment.. Look at Mahsing, Gamuda, SP setia all are aiming suburbs... there is still a demand for props at conducive environment and you can work from home at the same time..

The way i see, ppl are always upgrading life style, looking for a better environment as time passes by.. apartment -> terrace -> semi-D -> Bungalow.. from kampung to suburbs, or from urban to subsurbs.. As long as ppl are still moving around, there is always opportunity..

spot on... you say it yourself.. small houses also an opportunity.. as i mention, as long as ppl still moving around, buying bigger or smaller house are also opportunities, thus property market will never die..

Population growth and urbanization will continue to sustain the supply in the market.. there are upgraders and downgraders at the sametime..

If worry to much, i think its better to stay away from RE if one is not confident

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 19 2011, 11:01 AM

300k in Melaka is nothing compare to >500k in KL.. price in Melaka is pretty stagnant for the passed few years.. despite property booming this few years, houses in Melaka still did not appreciate more than 100k .. Klang Valley and increased more than 200k..

The important factor we should analyze is cheap financing rather than property price...

TheDoer, I know Melaka houses were selling 240k 5 years ago.. given financing 5 years ago (before US subprime and Malaysia economy was doing pretty well) was BLR+1% (6.75+1 = 7.5%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 216k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1547/month...

what about now? you mention house in Melaka is 328k, given current financing BLR-2.3% (6.3-2.3=4%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 295k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1409/month, montly installment is even cheaper than 5 years ago despite price had escalated so much..

Even BLR will raise to 7%, your interest rate is still only 4.7% and your installment is still on par with 5 years ago.. the only thing is your downpaymnet will be more than 5 years ago (developer giving 10% discount anyway, so what the neck)...

I just want to point out that, despite house price had escalated, but financing still remain affordable and even cheaper even though house price had increase.. since you can afford RM1500/month anyway, why not developer increase the price and reap the profit?

Is bank losing money my giving BLR-2.3%? just read banks financial report, they are earning every year and profit getting more and more..

Will property drop? NO....

1) as long as cheap financing exist in the market, it will prop price raise or sustain..
2) Loan tenure getting longer and longer.. 20yrs > 30 yrs > 40yrs .. now Hongleong and Maybank even launch the new scheme, where 1st 30yrs you only pay down 50% of the installment, while the rest 50% is being paid lumpsum after 30 yrs.. soon I foresee 2 generation loan.... Tenure getting longer and longer is a sign of getting monthly installment lower and lower.. and you know this will create prop price to go higher and higher..
3) There is only that much of limit to regulate financing.. over regulating will hurt the 1st time buyers and also slowing down the property market which the government will try to avoid.. giving 100% loan for salary below 3k for 220k below prop is also a sign not to slow down the prop market while keep owning a house reachable for low income group.. 70%LTV is the best they can do for the time being, being a season investor, there is no stopping from them because they got so used to it.. If cant invest expensive houses, they may opt for investing houses that are <1 mil, houses category which are for the masses, "rich get richer, poor get poorer".
4) Government will still keep the prop market vibrant at least until 2020.. In order to get into high income country, income per-population has to be increased.. As mention, "rich get richer, poor get poorer", I foresee wealth gap getting wider.. 10% of Msia population commands 90% of the country's wealth, while 90% commands 10% of the wealth, so once the 10% rich ppl gets richer, on average our country's income per-population increase (total income / total population).. wah-lah.. we are now high income nation (on number looks nice), but what about the 90% population?? <- anyway, this is just my opinion

As per-contract, no.. the +1 -2.3 cannot be changed..

It all started during US Subprime period when the country economy was low.. if you remember property market was slowdown at that time (2007, 2008 and early 2009) with fewer launching, fewer transaction, prop was cheap at that time.. Ppl were out of job, company was cutting cost, and the market fell.. that was a golden time for prop hunting (for those who have the capability).. OPR were revised and BLR follow.. At the sametime, bank loan was very competative.. started off with -1, den -1.5, den -1.8, den -2.0...... Bank interest rate was historically low, as low as 3.5% for some loan...

IMHO, the competativeness among bank triggered the discount rate on mortgage interest. When the volume is there (scale of economy), giving cheaper rate while getting bigger volume tend to be more profitable..

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Added on April 19, 2011, 2:38 pmAs I mentioned before, even before the crazy price hike recently, Melaka houses adi selling at 240k and require monthly installment of RM1500k even 5 to 6 years ago.. so the recent price hike in property had not increased monthly commitment, infact, it became cheaper.. Husband and wife join name to buy property is common.. how many ppl can buy property on their own even 5 to 6 years ago?

Increase 10 to 20k within a month is very subjective to demand and supply theory... willing buyer willing seller.. Klang Valley ones can increase in a week.. (especially new attractive launches)

1 thing proving urbanization is Klang Valley price is getting crazier than Melaka.. although Melaka housing getting more expensive, but can the rate of increase in Melaka comparable to KV? no... KV still takes number 1 spot..

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 19 2011, 02:38 PM

Couldnt agree more... thats one of the famous tactic nowadays... just do a booking without commitment bcos developer belum dapat AP... by the time sign SNP, all drop out 1 by 1 and agent call up 1 by 1 from the waiting list... but at the beginning, when looking at the sales chart it looks blardy good bcos after you book, not necessary have to buy.. there is where developer take advantage to increase price due to the "virtual high demand"

Msia prop will be "soft landing" soon.. escalation wont happen forever and I dun think price will drop also.. it will just slow down and appreciation wont be as drastic as these few years .. at this time, locals will slowly digest and consume as inflation increases ..

If you say "Prop price adjust" means "drop", I dont think it will drop overall, probably small segment but not the entire nation.. Overall, prop price wont drop as long as cheap financing still fueling the market.. Property will still appreciate in the long run..

p/s: watchout for BTS which government plan to imposed in 2015.. if this really take off, prop price will soar even higher..

http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/3445/Mand...row,-says-REHDA

Mandatory build-then-sell concept will hamper property industry grow, says REHDA

See Hoy Chan Holdings group director Teo Chiang Kok said full implementation of the BTS concept would push property prices higher as developers would factor in price and additional risks into their cost.


http://www.theborneopost.com/?p=115357
Build-then-sell concept impossible, says DAP

Very unlikely at the moment.. either launch at almost same price or slightly higher within the vicinity... Berjaya wont launch RM400k condo in Bukit Jalil, I&P wont launch RM500k terrace in Kinrara.. Only 1 condition you will see unusual cheap prop in prime area "during a major down turn in econmy" like asian financial crisis and US subprime..

You may find cheaper launching price at outskirts

its called fully "booked" not fully sold.. any tom dxck and harry can book without commitment.. the real picture comes when buyers are asked to sign SNP, lets c how many are real buyer and how many drop outs..

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Added on April 23, 2011, 10:21 amtrue.. was amazed by an uncle share his experience with me, he lost 4 millions in share market and business, but gain back few million after that because of his investment in properties.. what do he drive? a 10 yr old camry... his advise to me.. dont buy expensive cars and dun suka suka change car.. use your credit profile to maximize your borrowing in property..

While I am surpriced with another fren who just bought a beemer (fresh car new car, not recon) and he mentioned his loan barely qualify.. I assuming this is overstreched and for the sake of status, but actually having networth not even close to a million..

brand conscious youngsters... wish them luck..

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 23 2011, 10:21 AM

always prepare cash reserve to withstand 2 yrs of installment IMHO... you can get it rented out to minimize cash bleeding..

IMHO, minor cash bleeding is still tolerable as long as you are confident the prop you are holding will give good returns in the long run..
I was suffering -ve cash flow when I bought my 1st prop 5 years ago bcos the place was untested, and interest rate was high.. not long after 1 year, when the valuation was pretty clear for that place, the rental was increase and thats where I started to gain some +cash flow, and 5 year down the road, the price had appreciated close to 100%..

Most ppl looking at immediate ROI as the key for potential.. however, IMHO, if a prop has its true nature of potential, the potential will always be there regardless what the immediate ROI is. When the true potential previal, it can be bigger than you tought.. ROI and Potential should be viewed from different angle.. The key is how confident are you with your property and long you can hold.. however, smaller players might avoid this kind of investment who cant effort to suffer any cash bleed at any point of time..

Having said the above, I would like to stress that it is not a generalize term but rather a case by case basis.. If your prop incur more losses in the long run, better get rid of it before shit get shitter..

my 2 humble rupiah..

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Added on April 23, 2011, 11:14 amDifferent ppl has different preference and IMHO, should not be generalized everyone should act the same...

-sometime subsale might incur more $$ for fixing old pipes and renovation.. some renovated house might not suit your taste anyway..

-the current attractive thing about new launch is the minimal upfront fee.. its not the installment that they cant afford, but rather the initial capital that they do not have.. Its easier to afford installment than initial capital nowadays.. Notice not many malaysian have enough cash and saving by looking at the ever increasing household debts and lifestyle..

-new launches nowadays mostly offer securtity concept as opposed those most of the subsale unit which do not hav G&G..

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 23 2011, 11:14 AM

Villa Pavilion bukit serdang.. Potential was it is just behind TPM where all the IT companys are and APIIT..
It was untested due to it was the onli apartment around the area.. den came villa park n sanderson

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 23 2011, 11:29 AM

Classic... just like SP setia Zornia ... ppl had been lining up for Naza TTDI Alam Impian since Friday ..

当有一天，你发现30万令吉要购买一间双层排屋，是不可能的事，因房价已越追越高。当有一天，你已有能力购买40万令吉的房屋，但推介100间双层排屋单位，却有400人争相抢购。

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