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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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Bobby C
post Feb 23 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Feb 22 2011, 01:22 PM)
Like you fren, I also thought we'll have correction starting in 2012. I foresee this correction however will only be applicable to areas or developement where :

1. "New money" areas / development
2. Areas or development where its instrinsic value does not match similar, same locale developments. Lay man terms, OVER PRICED.

My bet is areas like TTDI, BU, DU etc will hardly kena....................  wink.gif
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Correct, correct, correct. Agree v what you say. Mini bubbles forming esp newly developed area. Hope will not burst but if it did burst, first hit will be the new overprice properties.

It is unbelievable that new development sitting on formal rubbish dump also 'sold out' because of mere news on LRT extension, not even shadow yet but breeze, fire already full blown. Tat's dangerous. Nobody even care to do a search on the developers' background.

Others will will be new development tens of kms away from town but demand higher price than ttdi, bu, blah-blah ...

So layman common sense can answer simple question, not need expert to tell u lah.

Not prophet of doom to predict when's the dooms day coming. But received some wind for someone in the bank in managerial position tat thing might change by yr end.

Some say 2nd wave of Euro crisis.

I think might be after GE when piggie bank running dry, or when all the new development completed and entering the market at the same time. They will feel the strongest resistance. Well, if they can break the resistance level and have the same demand, then ok. All are safe.

Else, many who are waiting in this forum will be happily buying over at a discount, 5%, 10%, 15% ...

In the end, the developers run away will all your current and future cash and end up you become slaves for the banks for the rest of your life all because you don't understand your own needs and wants.


This post has been edited by Bobby C: Feb 23 2011, 03:18 PM
Bobby C
post Feb 23 2011, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 23 2011, 04:27 PM)
i saw one properties.. it got 2 block..
stated both block will be completed in same date and time..
but then the developer make it phase 1 and 2
=.=
phase 2 will be more expensive than phase 1 for 20~30k
both also build the same time.. finish the same time..
developer purposely make it 2 phase.. reli muntah darah..
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That's ok, they did the same 6 yrs ago and way before tat. Early birds catch the worms. Marketing strategy. If u like ah pek see-see-look-look-going-merry-go-round-cannot-make-up-your-mind type then u good on you (no offense lah not referring to anyone here).

Worst they kept all the good units to themselves. Tell you all sold out or booked. If you interested, leave ur name, card, hp no, they will call u when available. Then slowly one by one release, call u so-and-so loan cannot approve lah, now available ... if u interested, quick quick money now or never... telling the same to all. S&P, building layout, official launch only next yr or next next yr type. This type of developers first go tell them go fly kite.

Look straight to our eyes. Just tell us what you are selling on the spot don't hanky panky behind the scene else give u a tight slap on the spot. Better put my hard earn money in many other investments. Don't limit urself to properties around KV. And dont just looking at houses and condos.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Feb 23 2011, 04:49 PM
Bobby C
post Feb 25 2011, 05:57 PM

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Don't be too happy even as owners where property inflated 60-70% Don't be too happy too if property bubble burst as per your hope and dream.

Things are boiling hot in the Middle East while everyone focusing on Euro and US. Just hope and pray hard that the small flames wouldn't spread to Saudi oil field. If so, be prepared that oil may hit usd200-300 as in the 70' oil crisis.

If that were to happen, touch wood not, everyone be it landlords or tenants all also kena. You be glad if you can keep you job and have roof overhead.

Bobby C
post Feb 28 2011, 04:20 PM

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Moral of the stories is, instead of focusing on external macro factors which is beyond our control unless you got a crystal ball, why don't we focus on internal factors that are within our reach ie how to increase your salary (passive/active income), other forms of investment that can alleviate your net worth, how to live below/within your means and stop comparing with your peers, try to study the properties that you are targeting whether overvalue or undervalue or stable (min chances of bubble bursting), how to mitigate risk etc etc.

Tell us prophets of doom since when we hear good news. Ever since 1997, seems that every 1-2 yrs we experience uncertainties and crisis after crisis. Life goes on and many still making good money from properties and other investments.

Ok, instead of being NATO, am also almost making up a deal to invest in some property that has potential to reap double triple quadruple return, Insha Allah of course, we can only do so much as human. But again, that is another playing field, road less travel, need plenty of perseverance and hardwork. Some might also think we are mad. Property boom or burst does not affect this kind of investment and it is not in KV.

Bobby C
post Mar 1 2011, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(aeiou228 @ Feb 28 2011, 11:22 PM)
LOL, If I can tell accurately the name of this kind of investment, any present for me ? tongue.gif
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You oledi know liaw. No present for you in this case brows.gif
Bobby C
post Mar 1 2011, 05:48 PM

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Pre-election conspiracy to con speculators. Where else to get extra funding?
Bobby C
post Mar 3 2011, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(IMHO @ Mar 2 2011, 02:51 PM)
rural areas has less earning opportunity....
so come to urban with more activity
*


Not exactly true. Things might change in future when people from urban moving back to rural.

Friend of mine staying in so call rural area and work part time as a broker. Personal property/land acquisition like every 3 mths. City folks like us can only dream of tat once every few yrs. If you are resourceful and got plenty of insights eg where the development going even when the land is still full of lalang, that where these 'genius' hit. Last thing they look for is when it has been developed into another KLCC or Mutiara, tat when they already gone far far pocketed heaps of profit.

Moral of the story, never look down at rural folks. You never know how full their bank account even only wearing slippers and riding motorbike. [tongue.gif]

Bobby C
post Mar 3 2011, 05:45 PM

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So city folks, don't be despair. Even now staying in a pigeon hole. You can always migrate 1-2 hrs from the city upon retirement and build ur dream homes v acres of orchard to yourself and family. Of course have to plan now not after retirement.

Never know what's going to happen 10-20 yrs down the road. Globalization and urbanization taking its toll. Sporeans coming to KL to seek jobs, KL folks going back to kampung to cari makan. Human like animals just follow where the food source.

In the past, people don't want to be rubber tappers. Nowadays people happy to be rubber tappers, even managers also drop his pants liau. tongue.gif

You never know when the wheels going to turn around.

Moral of the story, never be too proud and learn to cherish what you have. smile.gif

Bobby C
post Mar 16 2011, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 14 2011, 03:53 PM)
This is cruel world.
No money, no convenience.
No money, stay in ululu place loh.

What I said is about hypothesis, if, one day, people don't mind to have 300sf 220k apartment, there is always possibility in the future developers may build it as well.
Provided those 500K apartment, little buyers around.
Until now, need to find at outskirt of town area, or just like what you said ululu one.
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Yup, everything is possible. Foresee that shall be the trend in KV in the near future. People will go for budget AirAsia style. Tat's why D'sara Perdana selling so well ages ago.

A friend in Tokyo having a small apartment of less than 600sqft. No complain. Still alive and kicking wat after the big quake.

Looking at positive side, a small house = nothing to buy aka cannot buy anything cause no space in your house so save more money! Want to buy new furniture have to give it all away or pay to discharge old furniture ie force saving in a way.

Nowadays esp recent days (3 biggest quakes of the century hit in <10 yrs) world hit by many many crisis. But life still have to go on what. So continue to wait for more crisis or look at positive side, find out how to minimize/mitigate risk, make full use of opportunities around and make the best out of it.

But guess prob with youngster nowadays upon graduation first get a brand new car first (hey you been con by the gomen/bank already)! After finish paying off car loan then think of house. Problem is after paying off car loan thinking of a new car cum a new house cum a new hubby/wify cum a new kid on the block .... so forever and ever waiting and complaining properties too high. Stories never end.


ps:- buying new cars is the worst financial decision in this country (one of the most expensive car rates in the world with the highest import duty and taxes) no many many thanks to this Tun and his legacy to keep subsidizing his baby Potong which cannot export and compete with global brands. Now all suffer poor public transportation as long ignored and forgotten, all force to buy car to support Potong.
Solution:- kancil or bike

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Mar 16 2011, 11:46 AM
Bobby C
post Mar 16 2011, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Mar 16 2011, 02:04 PM)
ha ha... car (>RM100k) is status of a person...once u bring it out to pickup ur gal. ur confident level is diffrent compare to ppl with car <RM100k... that is why ppl still go for the car 1st. the property taste change and as well as the gal taste change as well, bro not like 10 yrs back lah...

Cost of living is expensive nowaday...
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Tat's d case go modified/remake/repaint old kancil or old cars Jap brand or old wira v Mitsubishi engine and make them brand new.

Thereafter when got more money go get a pickup truck can pick up many many gals as u wish.

Why truck you may ask? Here the reasons

i. Diesel fuel efficient, more efficient than 1.3M satria
ii. Diesel comparatively still cheaper than petrol. Their dare no simply hike else all transport companies will hike full then big hoo haa
iii. Diesel engine long lasting some recorded 500,000km no need overhaul engine
iv. Truck no 130% import duty compares with SUV, MPV, MiniUV blah blah
iv. Truck bulky and big can withstand langgar and harrassment from BM, MB on the highway
v. Can do partime delivery during wkend tongue.gif
vi. Diesel more green than hybrid. Go check how much environmental damage from the hybrid batteries, from manufacturer to the tong sampah
vii. Euro country 1.3cc also use Euro 4 / Euro 5 diesel. Msia dare not upgrade else kill off what else but Potong completely

Potong wins pants down thanks to b***** Legendary Tun!

Bobby C
post Mar 18 2011, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 18 2011, 09:32 AM)
if it was you, would you prefer to stay on after witnessing such disaster/cheating death or would you rather migrate?
if migrate, where do you think japs will go?
1. australia
2. singapore
3. malaysia

don't think they like china, hk, taiwan, korea, right?
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Sorry you have missed the major destination ie Thailand.

Bangkok Sukhumvit Sol??? like mini Japs town, so many Japs open stalls there just to earn a living. Heard nearly 100k Japs. Japs have passed their prime, now they are going down hill. Oz/Sg probably too expensive to many of them. Only those married v family esp Msia/Sg wives will stay put in Msia/Sg. Just look at number of Japs in town and closure of many Jap restaurants cater esp to the Japs. Their number are much lesser now.

Tats personally observation.

Bobby C
post Mar 19 2011, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Mar 19 2011, 10:52 AM)
i found out that the 100% loan scheme will charge flat 7% interest. yes, it does not follow BLR
it's kinda ironic to charge such a high interest on the "poors" who are trying to own a medium cost home
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Wat?! Additional interest to cover non performing loan?!

Recently check with AIA, their flat rate is fixed something like 5.6%.

Good job. Tat's to show how sincere they are. thumbup.gif

Carry on dreaming in this slumberland rakyat Malaysia. You ask for it, since majority refuse to accept the truth but prefer to listen to propagandas and lies! All prefer to stay in own comfort zone. Tat's why you get for refusing to speak up! wink.gif


This post has been edited by Bobby C: Mar 19 2011, 04:21 PM
Bobby C
post Mar 22 2011, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 22 2011, 03:20 PM)
In my earlier thread said that property bubble is happening everyday since 1986, it just happen in different time, in different areas & in different sector or segment of the property mkt, if one really study the history, you shd know that, I feel that some forummers seem like waiting for property mkt "CRASH" "across the entire mkt", it is not likely to happen, if you look at plenty of sub sale ads in The Star Classified & iproperty, I believe there are some gd props at bargain....
Property mkt is doing correction everyday, if one really want to buy a property, pls spend more time monitoring the price at preferred areas, property price will never increase all the time, the problem for all of us are we dun know the future, everyone is merely contribute their ideas on this topic based on respective past experience in tis sector....
Monitor, monitor keep monitoring, close with agents, I believe you will buy at yr "right" price
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Yup, too bad miss the boat when mini bubbles popping in early-mid 2009 in KL. Easily 50% profit in cash drool.gif

Oh well, there are always opportunities around. Don't be greedy.
Bobby C
post Apr 5 2011, 09:22 AM

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Received some wind from the top.

Be very prepared for the next storm looming right after GE.

Crude oil now Usd108 how come no hike on fuel? Why so steady and silent? No like Pak Lah 30% hike? Learned from mistakes?

Actually nothing new but just confirmation. Yup, they are going to abolish all subsidies pertaining to petrol, diesel, rice, fertilizer, (don't know abt medicine) .... Malaysians have been pampered way too long. Time to bite the bullet. So further inflation coming right after election.

Cannot imagine what going to happen next. All the best 1Malaysians!

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 5 2011, 09:23 AM
Bobby C
post Apr 5 2011, 02:07 PM

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The Worst and The Best taken from iproperty.

ps:- Anyway, I think the worst coming aft GE. No tahks to this Dr M and his screw up policies and now current generation and generations to come going to suffer more. Baapak Perbangunan? Mie ass, Blaapak Pembinasaan baru betol. mad.gif


11th Worst Housing Markets in the World
Apr 06, 2011

Amidst all the complaints about our high property prices relative to our incomes, it’s refreshing to note that depressed housing markets are even worse. When house prices are low, most of the time it means the economy is sluggish and unemployment is high. So, when house prices are moving up, thank your lucky stars. It means the economy is chugging along nicely and your job is safe.

Check out 11 of the world’s worst housing markets below but they are also great investment opportunities. Buy low and sell high.

#11 Czech Republic

Annual Change: Down 3.0%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.9%

Outlook: Unemployment is continuing to rise, wage growth is weak, and yet the central bank may raise rates, according to board member Pavel Rezabek; weak.

#10 Spain

Annual Change: Down 3.5%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.4%

Outlook: Spain continues to struggle with a banking sector crisis driven by impaired balance sheets as a result of the country's housing market collapse. This, coupled with unemployment over 20%, will keep the market weak for some time.

#9 Japan

Annual Change: Down 3.6%

Q3 2010 Change: Down 0.8%

Outlook: Japan's economic growth should boom in the latter half of 2011, as a result of reconstruction. With many people displaced as a result of the disaster, there may be higher demand for new and existing homes, which could drive up prices.

#8 Portugal

Annual Change: Down 4.0%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 1.2%

Outlook: Portugal's growth remains sluggish and its unemployment high. Foreign demand seems the most likely source of growth for the country's real estate sector.

#7 United States

Annual Change: Down 4.1%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 2.1%

Outlook: The U.S. is in the midst of a double-dip in its housing market. Data does not suggest there will a rebound anytime soon.

#6 Greece

Annual Change: Down 6.0%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.7%

Outlook: In the midst of heavy austerity cuts, Greece is seeing unemployment boom. The country is in the midst of a long-term restructuring while in receivership of aid from the EU and IMF. As such, no rebound in the housing market should be expected, unless foreign demand picks up suddenly.

#5 Dubai, UAE

Annual Change: Down 6.1%

Q3 2010 Change: Down 6.1%

Outlook: Prices continued to fall in Q1. There is some suggestion that supply is in decline, so prices could pick up as a result.

#4 Croatia

Annual Change: Down 7.2%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.9%

Outlook: Unemployment is on the rise, the country's economy shrank last year, and people are protesting against the government. Likely not good.

#3 Ukraine

Annual Change: Down 7.8%

Q3 2010 Change: Flat

Outlook: Consumer confidence is in decline, the inflation rate is improving, but still high. Growth, however, is looking good. So this market may turn around in 2011.

#2 Lithuania

Annual Change: Down 10.1%

Q3 2010 Change: Down 3.9%

Outlook: GDP growth is expected to be at 5.8% in 2011, but the country is still recovering from a housing bubble.

#1 Ireland

Annual Change: Down 10.8%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 3.5%

Outlook: Growth is expected to be weak as austerity measures persist. The banking sector is still in terrible shape. This does not look likely to improve anytime soon.

Source: Knight Frank




The 14 Hottest Housing Markets In The World – Malaysia is #14
Apr 05, 2011
Last year was a spectacular year for the Malaysian property market and this was recently acknowledged in Knight Frank’s survey of the hottest housing markets in the world. Malaysia clinched the last spot at #14, a long way behind Singapore’s 5th spot and miles behind Hong Kong which still stands tall as the # 1 property hotspot in the world.

Note that Latvia is # 2 because of its government policy that provides EU residency to those who invest $96,112 or more in a property there! Those who want to migrate to Europe the fast and easy way – here’s your chance! You just need to fork out about RM300K (cheaper than many properties in Malaysia) and you stand a chance to live and work anywhere in the EU!

#14 Malaysia

Annual Change: Up 6.2%

Q3 2010 Change: Up 0.9%

Outlook: Price rises in Malaysia are expected to continue in 2011, and some are projecting another 13% rise in H1 2011.

#13 Norway

Annual Change: Up 6.6%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.1%

Outlook: Norway's domestic economy remains strong, so there's little reason to suspect a downturn, particularly with oil prices looking bullish.

#12 Belgium

Annual Change: Up 6.8%

Q3 2010 Change: Up 2.6%

Outlook: Belgium's economic strength is built on that of Central Europe, and the continued expansion of Brussels as the European capital. The rumored ECB rate hike should have a negative impact on the sector.

#11 Taiwan

Annual Change: Up 7.4%

Q3 2010 Change: Down 1.0%

Outlook: Taiwan's property market is currently undergoing a correction, and the central bank is engaged in tightening measures that should also hurt the market.

#10 Denmark

Annual Change: Up 7.8%

Q3 2010 Change: Up 1.5%

Outlook: Denmark's property market will be "fragile" for some time, according to the country's economy minister. There still remains a great deal of real estate for sale, and few buyers, which should limit further price spikes.

#9 Poland

Annual Change: Up 8.1%

Q3 2010 Change: Up 1.1%

Outlook: Poland is a renewed target for private equity investors. Growth in Poland has remained stable, being tied to central European strength.

#8 India

Annual Change: Up 8.9%

Q3 2010 Change: Down 1.7%

Outlook: India's real estate market could slow if the country continues its interest rate tightening policy. The sector also has serious problems with corruption.

#7 France

Annual Change: Up 9.5%

Q4 2010 Change: Up 1.4%

Outlook: Like other European economies, France faces the repercussions of an ECB rate hike.

#6 Austria

Annual Change: Up 9.9%

Q3 2010 Change: Up 3.7%

Outlook: Growth in Austria, like much of central Europe, is stable. But there are concerns about the country's banking system and its exposure to Eastern Europe. The real estate sector may be impacted by any increase in ECB interest rates.

#5 Singapore

Annual Change: Up 14.0%

Q4 2010 Change: Up 1.8%

Outlook: Prices were down overall in February, but continue to rise in central Singapore. Government tightening measures are in place, the with the government providing housing for 80% of the population, there's only limited space for speculation.

#4 China (only Beijing and Shanghai)

Annual Change: Up 15.3%

Q4 2010 Change: Up 6.4%

Outlook: China is probably the most talked about real estate bubble in the world, with ghost cities the new topic du jour. The rise in house prices is likely to slide with tightening measures in China taking effect.

#3 Israel

Annual Change: Up 16.2%

Q4 2010 Change: Up 3.5%

Outlook: Israel continues to experience strong GDP growth and a booming economy. The size of the country is also a limiting factor that may help to drive prices higher. Regional instability, however, may be a deterrent to potential investors.

#2 Latvia

Annual Change: Up 16.9%

Q4 2010 Change: Down 0.8%

Outlook: Latvia's market boom is somewhat based on a government policy that provides EU residency to those who invest $96,112 or more in a property. Whether this policy will survive the scrutiny of EU leadership in the long-run, however, is unknown.

#1 Hong Kong

Annual Change: Up 20.1%

Q4 2010 Change: Up 3.7%

Outlook: Hong Kong prices experienced an enormous spike in 2010, based on both high demand and easy money flowing from its exchange rate policy with China. As tightening measures take hold on the mainland, that rampant growth in Hong Kong should slow.
Bobby C
post Apr 6 2011, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 5 2011, 11:14 PM)
BLR stays below 7.00% for last 10 years d.

Now housing loan

BLR - 2.2% to 2.5%

effective rate is still pretty low.

so buy or not buy? borrow or not borrow?

hmm.gif

user posted image
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Refinance my loans 2-3 yrs ago. Tat time BLR+0.x%. Only the first 2 yrs they give BLR-0.x%, 3rd yr onwards back to BLR+0.x%.

For the last 10 yrs, never heard BLR-Y before. Only the last 2 yrs such low interest loan offer by the banks.

Believe some powerful hand behind to allow this to happen, easy credit to stir the market, so looks good on surface before GE. Aft GE, wonder whether can still find BLR-Y type of offer and that for the entire tenure (not first 2 yrs). Imagine if you can save 2% loan for 20 yrs tenure how much are you talking about?

One of the only reason to buy property now is very low interest. Believe things will turn right aft GE. Ya, you might get discount of 5-10% on property price, but loan offer goes back to BLR+x, additional 2% for whole tenure so total sum paid still more.

So how to time when to drop? Price drop, interest up, in the end same same. May be you should ask God how to calculate. wink.gif

In short, better to have local knowledge on specific properties rather that general knowledge trying to time the market. You are not buying stocks you know.
Bobby C
post Apr 7 2011, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 7 2011, 05:48 PM)
Totally support!  Don't buy property now, especially the new launches!  But subsales which are more than 5 years old.  Don't let the speculators get away with this, that is sucking people's money out of a ponzi scheme.
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Who are the Mothers of all Suckers in this case?

- Regulators, developers and bankers.

Investors, speculators, home buyers got screwed at the back. They will wake up aft 13th GE. brows.gif

Bobby C
post Apr 13 2011, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 11 2011, 02:43 PM)
recheck yr math.

=(1.067)^40*60=803

correct answer is 6.7% cagr which is about right for very long term.
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Please recheck ur math too.

30k in 40yrs become 800k.

6.7% x 2 = 13.4% increase per yr? hmm.gif

Bobby C
post Apr 14 2011, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 13 2011, 07:58 PM)
no ler... said bought subsale at 60k. not 30k.
my math ok wan... tongue.gif
the point is... residential houses is not that great as investment except for certain periods.
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If u add rental return, tat will be significant.

Tat's why many of us go for rental return. Freehold, leasehold, old, new, landed, strata etc does not really matters so long as location/maintenance/security is good. laugh.gif
Bobby C
post Apr 25 2011, 04:52 PM

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Anyone listen to BFM radio recently? The business, finance radio station.

This morning they interviewed the CEO of Economic Transformation Program. Just few days ago they interviewed the CEO of LHDN inland revenue.

Believe all should know now that only 10% of working population paying income tax. Remaining 90% below taxable income. (LHDN CEO trying to twist and ignore the fact, making ass out of himself in radio station, utterly unbelievable such thing can happen. Oh boy, Malaysia truly Asia mah!)

What shocking to hear that out of 10% paying income tax, only 10% paying 15% above taxes. In short, only 1% paying 15% and above tax bracket! If you are above 15% tax bracket, congrats! You and the top 1%, though the fact is take home income nothing to shout if you stay in KV.

I still firmly believe all being con by conment. But tat doesn't imply one big bubble burst, but possibility of mini bubbles in few areas. Thks to conment lah. 1Malaysia! icon_idea.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 25 2011, 04:53 PM

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