hi all ...

as title ... last year JAN 2010 it was 3.76 till end of the year DEC 2010 up till 5.55, its like a huge bump

thats alot ..... but this year im thinking to buy in, so need advice from pros and sifu ......

hmm what do u guys think ?? should i ??? coz im thinking to buy 5 lots

thanks

Hmm... The 1st quarter decreased though the % is not alot... But it has been going sideway for almost a month... Maybe it is quite safe to enter now...

hmmm decrease ?? decrease due to split of shares ............ r u refering to increase and decrease % ???

here is the historical announcement


http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/listed_c.../historical.jsp

thanks

if for me, i will ask myself why u want to buy this counter? any good fundamental? what is the business nature? any impact in the future will affect the business? any valuable property in hand? any cash in hand? any prospective expansion?

i will more prefer in property counter than other... more secure... that only my opinion and thinking

thanks

due to recent split.
this counter is over valued.

lol ...ur question really referring to property counter .... hehe

i think of buying this counter coz i feeling it got hope increase again, coz last year really increase alot

I don't know about short run...but this counter worth to have a look for long term investor...
the current price still at a little bit discount, and my value for it is around RM1.25 - RM 1.40..
around 10%-15 discount ...I am thinking to buy some of it too..
happy investing

My view is that the train had left the station. I was looking at this on the last week of Dec 2010.

fundamental wise, retail clothing is a tough business to be in.

hmm since like that ... i think im gonna in 2 lot~~~ thanks for the idea

TA purists can ignore this post. My two cents are spoilered.



This post has been edited by VesperMartini: Jan 27 2011, 11:10 PM

I don't know about short term price...and actually wont put much concern on it.I am value investor and not chartist or TA specialist.
so we;re in different track of game.
I am still doing my homework on the business,
this stock considered as good but certainly not the best.
if it going to drop to 60-90 cents i will just buy more.

certainly + i am still concern about the business are the price maker or taker.. but seems like it is price taker... too bad..but with such profit margin and and ROE in retailing clothes business, quite impressive though I would say especially in Malaysia.

any other opinion?
i am still working out on it before can contribute more

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Added on January 28, 2011, 12:01 amThanks, that's my concern too it is really helpful.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jan 28 2011, 12:01 AM

hmmm ..........

This post has been edited by madguy88: Jan 28 2011, 12:23 AM

I have alots share at RM1.10... then second day it fly to RM1.29 then 3rd days RM1.35 !! And I didnt sell It !! Now drop to RM1.13..luckiyl today raise abit !! WTF !! I should sell when suddenly RAISE SO MUCH !

My view,
This is not a very smart strategy...
To average down when the price had dropped by 40 to 50 % can never be a smart strategy to me..
When price had dropped 50% it will need to move up 100%just to be back to the same location.
To me cutting loss is still the best trading strategy....

as i said, i am value investor..
the growing story certainly have affect the intrinsic value of padini in long run,

my two concern would be,
1) padini is price taker
2) cotton price do have some effect on it
3)I am still doing some research whether padini would done sucesssfully if the grows oversea.

It doesn't mean the value of the stock will decreasing, it is just the growing of the intrinsic value will be much slower in future
yes, i still will consider it as long term investment, but wont put too much in my overall portfolio

just my 2 cents..

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Added on January 28, 2011, 12:37 ami am not trader lol...
i have been doing these for years...
anyway thanks your kindly advice

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jan 28 2011, 12:37 AM

The price doesn't need to move 100% up to get back to the same position. For instance, let say you buy a stock (1 unit as example):

Your Entry price: RM 1

Current price: 0.50

So, you restock at Rm 0.50, meaning your average price now is RM 0.75 ([RM 1+ RM 0.50] /2). As long as the price hit to RM 0.75, you will break even and any movement above RM 0.75 is a profit.

*ignore brokerage fees for the above example

No offense intended, but i just don't understand that 100% part. Sometimes, it's good to average down. My 2cents.

My trade
I analyse all the stock in the market ...
I average down only up to the 5% drop... if it drop further to 10 % I will just cut my losses and move on to another counter. so I will never see the 20, 30 or 50% losses.

I am still looking at Padini. In fact, I indirectly have interest in it thru ICAP.

Yes cotton price is a concern. In fact they have admittedly said they aren't usually the first mover to increase their product prices. This shows they do not have enough pricing power over their products. However, i think cotton price will stabilize when it hit the sweet balance spot in the long term. But i dunno how much. I have listen to CNBC commentary one day. Looks like the commodities guys are doing the oil dirty trick. There isn't really short of supply. Mainly are speculative. But that's for cocoa, not sure bout cotton.

ONE thing to note though, Padini biggest revenue contributor are from Vincci. And I have seen its ability to attract even the LV-fan ladies. So it is a powerful brand. Their business...just take a weekend walk to MidValley you'll see. But, premium Vincci+ dun quite make the cut.

Another thing I like about it, is how the management is working on its cost control. The move to all of them in one Padini concept store will reduce rental cost. Although I m not sure how it'll affect Vincci sales. Their move to focus on higher margin Brands Outlet might cushion the cotton pressure a little bit in short term.

Nevertheless, fashion retail industry is a tough one. Big guys could take advantage of current cotton price hike to squeeze out their competitors. Old dirty trick. Padini biggest competitors from what I could see are from the likes of Espirit, Topshop and Gap. Prices of their products are far higher. So there is still a little room for price rise. If I were Padini, I'll do it after CNY. Sales will slow down during after that anyway. That'll allow consumer to slowly settle with the new price.

Paidini did say double digit return next FY onwards will be difficult. I am taking a more conservative entry price of RM0.83 after 20% margin of error to my valuation.



Just my sharing. What do you think?

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The Fool Investor

SPOT ON..exactly what I am thinking
their management is considered good in cost control as I noticed too...

personally, I believe their biggest competitor is top shop and a quite new competitor from australia called cotton on .

and Yes, Vincci is their main earning weapon.. i know it cause I used to go there quite often (with my ex LoL)
From the cost side of the business,the cotton price will have impact on the business.
But personally ,I believe the business's intrinsic value still growing at sufficient rate in my conservative calculation.
but the I still working on it too..still doing some analysis for it's contingent liabilities, from cost side (cotton) and their growing strategy.

BTW, what do you meant by double digit return? in terms growing of company's profit?revenue? or ROE? or share price???

it is still at discount compared to my valuation, of course I hope can enter lower price, but I just use lower averaging method as I have zero knowledge to predict where the share price are going..