My favorite counter-trend breakout trade .... observe this .. you will likely see this type of breakout almost everyday ... 15M charts ...
When price
moves down and you see pins near a support ... its because
1) sellers are pushing price lower
2) buyers are vigorously buying whatever sellers are selling ..
This will result in equilibrium (price seems to be going nowhere).
In equilibrium .. when everybody who wanted to buy and sell are in the position .. it becomes a waiting game .. who's going to bail themselves out first ?
Last night, the sellers bailed out. Sellers cover their short position by
buying ... then the price skyrocketed ... this type of breakout can pierce
the closest Pivot level easily ... almost all the time .. and stop at the next pivot level.
This is the difference between strong hand and weak hand. Weak hands always bail-out earlier than strong hands.
Strong hands = smart money .. weak hands = dumb money. You dont need to know fundamental to see this (in fact, according to news last night, GU is supposed to go down, it tried to go down but failed, resulting in panic short-covering).
Note that this type of breakout (which is also among the strongest type) happen not because people are buying rationally .. but its because people are covering their shorts by buying panicly (note the subtle difference there). They covered their short due to panic since their shorts arent working... Panic = high magnitude. Isn't this what people say "buy when everyone is panic"?. This is not to be confused by god-forbid "buy when price is going down" .. catching a falling knife.
Our job as a daytrader ? Is to buy near the red line in the picture .. and TP at closest pivot level after that. With experience you can buy even earlier than that ...
I entered at 1.6060 ... the red line was 1.6085. Exit around 1.6120 ish ... depending on your MM ... this could be easily 4-5% gain.
Added on February 11, 2011, 4:11 pmThis is
opportunity. Read my post above.

thank you for the advise... i take note on that.. hope can make bigger pips