http://mystockfolio.blogspot.com/2010/11/w...aycity-now.html
As you already know, Sunway is merging with own SunwayCity to form a bigger property entity. This is following after the Sunrise-UEMLand and MRCB-IJMLand merger events. What a great move by Jeffrey.
Sunrise+UEMLand might be 1+1=3 as Sunrise has the technic and good reputation in Mont Kiara while UEMLand has a lot of landbanks in Johor-the future development in Malaysia at Iskandar area.
MRCB-IJMLand also not bad,but I see it as 1+1=2 only, just bigger in size.
While Sunway Holdings+Sunway City is in my mine=1+1=4 or even 5. Why?
First, Sunway merging Suncity will create a greater and better image for Sunway, flushing away the confusion in investors who are confused with whether to invest in either of the companies.
2nd, with the merging, institutional investor now invest in stock for the rest of assets not already in Sunway REIT. Example: The Sunway college, Sunway medical centre, Sunway Giza shopping mall....etc
3rd, the biggest catalyst in future is Assets moving from Newco Sunway --->SunREIT, it will further unlock the value in assets own in Sunway. Thus pumping up the cash for further development or special dividends.
4th. With its huge success in SunREIT IPO, Sunway Newco will further attract big institutional investors who love great volume, and lower risks. RM2.80 looks attractive compared to most analyst estimation of BVPS 3.50-3.70
5th. Its overseas development especially China Tianjin project if launch successfully, will be a great milestones for the company, and can provide further venture in future into China, maybe and IPO in HongKong or China ?
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Well, between Suncity and Sunway Holdings, I prefer Suncity. As most assets is at Suncity, and the Bookvalue of Suncity is actually more than offering price of RM5.10, it should be more than RM5.20
Any it is selling now at RM4.60, still lower than offer price RM5.10
RM5.10 according to most report, 20% in cash+80% in Newco shares swap
So, if you buy 1000 shares now at RM4.60, to simplify exclude the brokerage fees,etc.
Cost=RM4600
20% cash back on offer RM5.10=RM1.02*1000=RM1020
80% on RM5.10=RM4.08. As Newco Sunway offer at RM2.80, you can get 4.08/2.80*1000=1457 Newco shares.
And also 1 free warrant for 5 Newco shares (exercise price=RM2.80)
So, all in all you get:
Cash=RM1020+
1457 Newco share valued RM2.80=RM4079.60+
291 free warrant( If listing price is RM0.20=RM58)
If you decide to sell once listing of Newco at RM2.80
Your return=RM1020+1400xRM2.80( Forget the oddlot)=RM4940
Cost=4600
Return=4940
Profit=340(7.39%)
But if you see a good future in the company and since volatility surely improved, you decide to wait until mkt price reach BVPS estimate RM3.50
So, now your return is
Cash=RM1020+1400Newco share xRM3.50=RM5920
Profit=1320(28.69%)
And this is even excluding free warrant worth
RM0.70*290=RM203
So, now is Suncity a good buy for now? You Decide!
Sunway, Why you must buy Sunway/SunwayCity now!!
Nov 25 2010, 08:15 PM, updated 16y ago
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