You may be disappointed with their behaviour

Aiyor, was hesitating when it was 2.2x and thereafter forgot liao.... miss boat.

You are right, but will wait and see. Yup, maybe buy more Arreit; better still Axreit.

Subject: HDBSVR: Gamuda, Maintain Buy



Gamuda: Still our high conviction stock pick

• Most leveraged MRT proxy

• Strong local property sales, slight delay in Vietnam

• High conviction BUY, raised TP to RM4.90

Remains high conviction stock pick for the sector. We raised our SOP-derived TP to RM4.90. Like for MMC, we built in realistic assumptions for the RM40bn MRT project – 50% probability the MMC-Gamuda JV would clinch the RM14bn tunneling works. We value this at RM1.5bn (RM0.68/Gamuda share) using 2011-2016 cash flows, 10% discount rate, 8.3% blended margins, and 50% discount. In order not to double count, we removed the SOP accretion from the RM2.5bn new orders assumed for FY12.

Most leveraged MRT proxy We remain convinced that the JV will be appointed PDP/chariot master and will clinch RM14bn worth of tunneling works. Our conviction stems from its past experience with tunneling works and the fact that the MRT project is paramount to the ETP’s target of achieving 6% growth in the medium term. Hence, it is in the PM’s interest not to delay this project and entertain competing bids from contractors without the required expertise or due diligence. Most recently, he said he wants the project to start by July 2011. Post the National Economic Council meeting, this project will be tabled to cabinet by December and likely go via the PDP route. The consultant’s report has been tabled to SPAD, where we understand the government is in favour of the JV’s alignment. This project will more than double its existing RM6bn orderbook and give another 6 years visibility post completion of its double tracking project in 2013.

Delay in Vietnam, strong local property sales. Gamuda’s launch of its RM6bn Tan Thang development in HCMC has been pushed forward to Feb 2011 from Nov 2010, due to a change in decree in Vietnam. Nonetheless, Gamuda believes it can catch up and is maintaining its sales guidance of RM700m (RM300m Tan Thang, RM400m Yenso Park) for FY11. On the local property front, sales for the two months of FY11 of RM250m have surpassed expectations, and it will have to raise its RM880m sales guidance for FY11. We have not factored in contribution from Vietnam.

No la, just sharing. since MIB always give me their research paper on Gamuda.

This post has been edited by protonw: Dec 6 2010, 03:57 PM

Sounds like I have to buy back at higher price.

so boring... all that I sold go flying. All that I keep lao sai...

This post has been edited by protonw: Dec 6 2010, 04:10 PM

Maybe Maybank sells PT to buy OSK. Just my wild guess.

Just bought MB last Friday and now sinking as well...