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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V67, Alex's 1447 or 1388.....

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yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(cypher @ Dec 3 2010, 03:15 PM)
suddenly so many sapu in OSK ???!!
*
KUALA LUMPUR: Berjaya Corp Bhd (BCorp) last Friday clinched a deal to sell a 70% stake in its stockbroking arm, Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, to Singapore-listed Kim Eng Holdings Ltd for RM142 million.

The RM142 million price tag comprises total net assets of RM100 million and goodwill of RM42 million.

BCorp, in a statement, announced that its subsidiary Inter-Pacific entered into an asset purchase agreement with Kim Eng to transfer the former’s entire stockbroking and related businesses to a special-purpose vehicle (SPV).

The RM142 million sale consideration will be settled in the form of a 30% equity stake in the SPV and a cash payment of RM42 million.

According to Kim Eng’s announcement to the Singapore Exchange, Inter-Pacific’s estimated net profit for the financial year ended April 30, 2010, was about RM14.4 million, while its estimated net asset value as at April 30, 2010, was about RM97 million.

Based on the estimated net asset value of RM97 million, Inter-Pacific is being valued at 1.46 times book, which analysts consider a rather good price for BCorp.

The deal came as a surprise as BCorp and Kim Eng had in end-August announced that discussions to form a partnership had been mutually terminated. The termination came barely two weeks after the duo had disclosed that they were in on-going talks for a strategic partnership, following a report in The Edge Financial Daily.

Nonetheless, this is a pleasant surprise to the local stockbroking industry.

The hefty RM42 million premium that BCorp is able to fetch will probably cheer the other stockbrokers, many of whom are trading below book value.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-fina...g-industry.html

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 03:22 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 3 2010, 03:21 PM)
Watch SUNCITY closely. Volume is coming back.
*
what's up with suncity? shocking.gif
while sunway still laggard.... hmm.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 03:29 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 3 2010, 03:30 PM)
The share price has reached bottom! Time for rebounding. I hope I'm right.
*
but it's among the closest to the newco's offer price...
...probably new injection to sunreit? brows.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 3:40 pmonly 2 reds in Asian market so far...china and us. flex.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 03:40 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(shinchan326 @ Dec 3 2010, 03:57 PM)
how do u all think about NAIM??
*
I got some sleeping...dunno when can awake. yawn.gif
Don't make me wait until next Sarawak election by April! doh.gif

yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 04:57 PM

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magician got...up 2 pts...
...today's target is just stay above 1500 mah. biggrin.gif
so that Alex won't withdraw his rally TA perspective. thumbup.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 04:58 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Dec 3 2010, 10:11 PM)
You are right, but will wait and see.  brows.gif Yup, maybe buy more Arreit; better still Axreit. tongue.gif
*
Axreit recent few days got someone trying to push up the price and put on rather big sell queue at much higher price with some gap.
As at current price of 2.34 with latest 3 quarters + estimated some yield as 3rd qtr for the 4th qtr, yield is only at 6.7%. doh.gif
I thought to top up some too, but not sure if I should wait for a while for it to consolidate. hmm.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 10:25 pm
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 3 2010, 10:13 PM)
haha, i also topped up some ARREIT at 90.5, better than topping up at 92.
*
Arreit has been laggard recently. Guess 0.905 is a good entry point, may top up some too before it catches up with other reits. biggrin.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 10:25 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Dec 3 2010, 10:27 PM)
I calculated that prices will appreciate to RM2.7+ because the div yield will be too high to resist. Estimated full year EPS to be more than 38 sens or minimum div of 19 sens. If you have confidence in this counter, prices now are still reasonable.
*
How you calculate to get RM2.7? What yield % you expecting?

I got the latest 3 qtr DPU to be 3.7, 4.0, 4.0.
Then I estimate the upcoming qtr to be 4.28 (7% more income as for newly acquisitions, as research house estimates a 5-10% gain)
That gives a total of 15.98 sen (quite far away from your 19 sen)
Therefore yield % = 15.98 / 2.34 (today closing price) = 6.82%

Please enlighten me. Thanks! notworthy.gif

yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 3 2010, 10:53 PM)
biggrin.gif laggard compared to others? yeah.. but i dont really want it to go up.. sad.gif
If its yield goes up to 20% how? tongue.gif
I also love it that way but too optimistic. blush.gif
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Dec 3 2010, 11:15 PM)
Think he was referring to Tecnic. Read his blog just now  tongue.gif
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Was he? Misunderstood loh. tongue.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 11:19 pmAnyone has research paper on Tecnic? Since so hot now, wanna take a look also. biggrin.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 11:19 PM
yok70
post Dec 3 2010, 11:46 PM

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Bursa is so not informative.

I read this page trying to understand warrants, and I can't find answer. doh.gif
http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/products...d_warrants.html

My immediate questions:
1. -W is what? call warrant or put warrant?
2. What's the difference between call/put warrant?
3. What happen when the call/put warrant expire?

Until now, I still getting all kinds of different answers. Try to find accurate answer at Bursa (since I worry different market has different definitions) but can't find any. rclxub.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 11:47 pm
QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Dec 3 2010, 11:25 PM)
Arreit move like bor.... Sure you like it kah  hmm.gif  tongue.gif

Arreit drops are not so significant compare with other reits during 2008 subprime crisis due to reasons below :
1. Long term tenants
2. Long term loans with fix rate.
*
Thanks for the info. notworthy.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 11:51 pm
QUOTE(GregPG01 @ Dec 3 2010, 11:36 PM)
no 1 talking about kencana raising more monies ? dilutions , dilutions , dilutions ...
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The world is fair. Expansion comes with dilution. As long as it has enough jobs for the expansion...this, gotta wait for papers to come. lazy lazy... tongue.gif


Added on December 3, 2010, 11:52 pm
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 3 2010, 11:43 PM)
90.5, 91, no diff from 90 sen hahaha

question is would it ever go back down to 83? tongue.gif
*
my first buying was at 0.845. tongue.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 3 2010, 11:52 PM
yok70
post Dec 4 2010, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(drsaleh @ Dec 4 2010, 12:42 AM)
yok.. try to answer your q, someone else can correct me if wrong

-W is warrant that is dished out by the company. e.g. IJM-WC is warrant that issued by IJM before. usually conversion 1:1. at the end of the expiry, u need to convert to mother share if u still holding it. that means you have to fork out your money to pay 'the exercise price'.

where else -C is structured warrant that is issued by investment banks. usually American style, ie cash setttlement. conversion rate differs, sometimes 1:3, even 1:10 also got. At the end of the expiry date, if the warrant is in the money, you'll get paid in cash. hence the term cash settlement. you CANNOT convert to mother share at any time, not during the trading day, and not even before expiry.
If it is out of money, all your money burn lo.

put warrant if not mistaken, is for hedging purposes. Since it is not shariah approved, I didnt bother reading about it. But I remember reading somewhere in Robert Kiyosaki book, mentioning how to leverage and make money using put warrant.

Hope this help.
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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 4 2010, 12:49 AM)
just some amendments. if the CW is out of money, no harm -you just lose a little money. if it's below the strike price (all CWs have this), then might as well just burn it. icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Thanks!! notworthy.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 4 2010, 05:21 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Currylaksa @ Dec 5 2010, 07:02 AM)
Don't understand what you mean shocking.gif

CI high means REIT overpriced... or you mean we should invest in CI because it's high?
*
I think what he means is that CI high, stocks are moving up high, so can earn much more than defensive REIT, which usually moves only 4 times a year (while declaring dividends) tongue.gif


Added on December 5, 2010, 1:40 pmI guess for those who can't take stress or those who is already rich, may play safe game on divvi stocks/reit. Since only the divvi received already large amount, enough to buy benz. cool2.gif
On the other hand, those new player who has little capital, may play higher risk stocks, hoping to grow more capital from their tiny capital. sweat.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2010, 01:40 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Dec 5 2010, 01:46 PM)
sure boh? how many new player with little capital u know who played high risk stocks to grow their tiny capital?
the stock market sifu will kill them all!  thumbup.gif after 1-2 years, they'll be taking passive approach instead
once u get ur trading tactics correct, profit more than loss, then u r on the way
other that that, THERE IS NO such thing as beginner luck  nod.gif
*
There has no free lunch in this world, has it? biggrin.gif
As for me, if I am a millionaire and heading towards my golden years, I'm pretty sure I'll only invest in REITs. So I only need to read the newspaper once a week to update myself of world economy. I won't spend so much time on stocks as today. nod.gif


yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 06:47 PM

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wondering how much the korea war can affect our market, as US and China also kind of tense on it right now (inclusive of Japan-China issue in addition to the korea one).
sigh! buy or sell? I'm newbie woh, give me such challenge so fast meh! sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2010, 06:47 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(popcorn513 @ Dec 5 2010, 07:07 PM)
I thought u r oldbie , ur trading exp?
*
Not yet one year. But not very young also lah.
My graduation day will be when I reach 5 years. wish.gif


Added on December 5, 2010, 9:31 pm
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 5 2010, 08:52 PM)
wah what can i say, you already took the words outta my mouth. shocking.gif
i must say you described my journey so far pretty much notworthy.gif

anyway, my observations about the older guys approach (those at the bursa market chats) is that most are quite new to the market. Current holdings incl Unit Trusts, Gold, traditional heavyweights (like Btoto, Public Bank, Genting and maybe some recent hot stocks etc), Forex (mostly Aus), and foreign-FDs for their kids. they were looking for ways / hot tips to improve their capital gains. most of the guys i've talked to (including my dad, but i taught him a bit of TA tongue.gif) say that TA is a new thing to them. in fact the odd thing is that most of them have their capital invested elsewhere, in Hang Seng (incl. A-shares), Singapore, US, Aus. Most haven't even heard of REITs or what their structure is like.

but thats just my observation from talking to people at these events, they might be an exceptional case i don't really know. laugh.gif
*
Ya, agree that many don't have any idea what REIT is. I was quite surprise when talking to them, and some have more than 10 years trading experience. And not to mention TA, almost zero % of those I know care to learn TA. However, for long term (3 years and above as defined by unit trust) investment, it makes sense that TA is not so important. Remember pana always said. just buy lah, why care that few cents to queue. rclxms.gif
I can see nowadays, investors are getting more and more pro, willing to learn to understand FA and TA, instead of by TIPS. A lot of old folks play stock by TIPS. I also have a friend that his father is actually having a "retired bosses fund". They retired, and they are very rich. What they do is they gather millions in hand, and play/create TIPs to earn money. They are what we called sharks.
I kena a few times by tips thing. Now, I rather stay safe, buy on good FA stocks, with the support of TA. tongue.gif


Added on December 5, 2010, 9:32 pm
QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Dec 5 2010, 08:33 PM)
well then, I also enjoy reading the klse thread, since u guys got the pulse on the local market
my era, no different, all wan make quick bugs by just listening & reading the analyst report etc
I also got burnt in klse during my virgin days, many moons ago. did forex, futures, warrants, penny/goreng counter & wat not

no one I know started off with high dividend defensive counters, we all just thought we were smart & wanted to show we can do better
now that I hav eaten my portion of kicap. I will tell newbies to invest in high dividend defensive counters
the only problem for some of them, it is very pricey & slow moving

no point talking about woulda, coulda or shoulda, its all in the past, we must move forward & learn from mistake
some can progress to fa, ta & combine both. others just surrender or went halfway, be passive & go for unit trust & etc. its a free world!
ur own passion & drive for something will deliver ur own rewards

how is their approach?  compare it with the older 30-40 y/o guys i meet at the Bursa market chats / AGMs, their approach is different.
Taikor, would you mind sharing your comments on current market situation? I am kind of worry on two things:
1. korea war that involved china and US, and also sort of involved Japan now! doh.gif

2. hot money. I was wondering if our index was being pushed up 5-10% by it directly or indirectly, what could happen when it leaves us? Will our index drops 5-10%? do you mind share your pass experience on hot money issue as when comparing it with current situation of malaysia economy?

Thanks!! notworthy.gif


This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2010, 09:32 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(Jtic @ Dec 5 2010, 09:33 PM)
yawn.gif
i started my investment when i was in college,yr 2008. Borrowed money from fren to invest gold as that time year 2008,gold was too cheap.. went in and out 3 times on paper gold.
after that, AUD fall below SGD, went in buy some AUD also... then started stock in 2009.
So, Im also noob bie.
hahaha~
*
Are you making profit? tongue.gif

yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2010, 09:37 PM)
I can tell from my experience and personal view.

This kind of event only got effect for short term.
In fact, if tension blow out, the created panic mode could be a buying opportunity.
Mainly because it couldn't blow out to full tension event or WWII like issue.

No matter how, China-US-Japan are having close relationship to each other, one rely on the other, in term of economical way.
Those are more political issue only.

Eg. Iraq war, 911.
*
Thanks! notworthy.gif

In this case, the "buying for christmas" wish in US may not be as good in Asia....it's a buy low vs. average down case here. Gotta do some math on calculating the possibility ratio now. 344*0.485+(435.657^87-847*0.7463)/((22*3930.57-445)+(77880.32/654)..... biggrin.gif

yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(Jtic @ Dec 5 2010, 10:04 PM)
so far ok o~
as i bought gold, aud all at almost btm point.
then i started touch stock in march,2009~ also when the time, every counters simply fly.
wat i wanna say is my holding power was too weak during the march-sept 2009, the 1st 6 mths when i started play stock. i bought many counters damn cheap but also sold many counters in damn cheap price with just peanut profit..... sweat.gif
now my holding power already much improve  nod.gif
*
wah....holding power is really important woh. If you hold those in 2009, now you probably double capital already. tongue.gif
so first lesson to learn: holding power if there is no reason to sell. flex.gif


yok70
post Dec 5 2010, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Dec 5 2010, 10:30 PM)
Exactly. Most stocks that I bought in Feb-March 2009, now should double at least. Some sold it earlier this year, some, still keeping. Even when I told my friends that most of my trades gained at least 100%, but they found it hard to believe but if you look at overall market, no matter what stocks that you bought in 2009, now should at least double (good fundamental stocks though). I do see that the more often we trade, our profit margin will become lower and lower even though you are actually making money from every trade. Not sure why this happens though.  hmm.gif
*
This is what buffett said right? he said hold gains more, because if you sell, you may not be able to catch the first train when it rally. hmm.gif
I did set up a target of 70% profile keep for mid/long term, 30% for speculations. But until today, still hard to achieve that. Because my profile still not clean, still got some underperform laggard stocks with huge loss right now, so capital stuck. Such as bjcorp, msports, supermax, p&o. Why i still keep them? Because 1. huge loss. 2. still got hope on them to rebound. doh.gif


Added on December 5, 2010, 10:51 pm
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 5 2010, 10:44 PM)
well, one stock going 100% is equal to 5 times ~20% gain. its not easy to pull of 5 20% short term trades because need to spot 5 potential movers.

not many people can do that unless they play leverage like warrants. nod.gif so technically you got stellar performance!
my holding power for 09 was too weak. up 20-25% i run and switch stocks. this year hehe, 50% also duwan let go with 10% trailing. biggrin.gif

that's another good tuition fee paid. brows.gif
*
ya, tuition fee paid and learn. rclxms.gif
one said, stock trading is very easy, just hold some good stocks, don't sell until 100% profit. And for those losing, cut loss when it reach 30%. hmm.gif



This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2010, 10:51 PM
yok70
post Dec 6 2010, 02:24 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Dec 6 2010, 01:48 AM)
yok70, no need worry korea war that involved china, japan and US, coz we're in an interconnected world! for hot money. u need to read up about definition of interest rate in wikileaks. we all know abt the sub prime crisis. as a case study, who can pay int rate for their loan at tat time when fed keeps on increasing int rate? its like setting the house on fire, then putting out fire jus bcos want to cool down the economy/inflation  rolleyes.gif
since earning fd int so low, y bother keep in usa bank. sent it out to work smart in wherever got opportunity or high int rate. once fed increase int rate, time to bring it back to the good ole usa, pay the loan & enjoy the profit  cool2.gif can u see any clue on hot money from attachment
Thanks for the comments. notworthy.gif
From your attachments, what I see was when interest rate gets lower, it triggers market index goes lower as volume is losing too. And Investment Advisers earlier bullish call was fake while the market continues to get bearish, and these advisers turn their call into bearish at last. Quite scary to see this! sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 6 2010, 02:26 AM

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