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 PPB Group, Long term fundamental stock

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wil-i-am
post Nov 10 2013, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(syukurbahagia @ Nov 10 2013, 09:12 PM)
If you have money put at FD and not intend to use for another ten years, you may consider buy this stock. Need very long HOLD
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Wat is d average DY for past 5 yrs?
syukurbahagia
post Nov 10 2013, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 10 2013, 09:37 PM)
Wat is d average DY for past 5 yrs?
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LOOK AT CAPITAL GAIN RATHER THAN DIVIDEND.
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 8 2014, 05:28 PM

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This counter have corrected a lot recently...now seems to be quite attractive hmm.gif
felixmask
post Dec 8 2014, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 8 2014, 05:28 PM)
This counter have corrected a lot recently...now seems to be quite attractive hmm.gif
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You got see their EPS ?


2009 136.31
2010 159.00
2011 82.7
2012 71.04
2013 82.88


2Qtr 2014

EPS Cumulative Quarter 6 months ended

2014 2013
26.20 35.08


their Qtr report also not amazing.

This post has been edited by felixmask: Dec 8 2014, 05:53 PM


Attached File(s)
Attached File  ppb_quarterly_report_2014_2qtr.pdf ( 105.95k ) Number of downloads: 2
chongwei
post Dec 8 2014, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 8 2014, 05:28 PM)
This counter have corrected a lot recently...now seems to be quite attractive hmm.gif
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Is it a good time to buy in? would you buy in? and what price? smile.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 8 2014, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Dec 8 2014, 05:43 PM)
You got see their EPS ?
2009 136.31
2010  159.00
2011 82.7
2012 71.04
2013 82.88
2Qtr 2014

EPS Cumulative Quarter 6 months ended

2014      2013
26.20    35.08
their Qtr report also not amazing.
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felix meow meow,

2009 and 2010 EPS got results from operations (sugar manufacturing and sugar cane plantation) which were discontinued in 2011, u gotta remove the element to make the EPS trend analysis more meaningful

Btw, I see their revenue growth quite strong, at 12% compounded growth

What is dragging their earnings ar? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Dec 8 2014, 06:00 PM
felixmask
post Dec 8 2014, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 8 2014, 05:58 PM)
felix meow meow,

2009 and 2010 EPS got results from operations (sugar manufacturing and sugar cane plantation) which were discontinued in 2011, u gotta remove the element to make the EPS trend analysis more meaningful

Btw, I see their revenue growth quite strong, at 12% compounded growth

What is dragging their earnings ar? hmm.gif
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u read their Qtr report 2h 2014

EPS also not good.


SUSPink Spider
post Dec 8 2014, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Dec 8 2014, 06:02 PM)
u read their Qtr report 2h 2014

EPS also not good.
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Oh I got it already

>50% of PPB's earnings are contributed by Wilmar's earnings

Wilmar's results hit PPB's earnings, but not revenue, because PPB consolidates Wilmar as an associate

Wilmar's recent performance really that bad? Calling ASEAN specialist Unker gark to comment notworthy.gif

If u look at PPB's quarterly report, all of its segments reported better revenue and margins; it's Wilmar that is dragging PPB down.

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Dec 8 2014, 06:08 PM
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 8 2014, 09:04 PM

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Here's my take on PPB's financials...

5-year CAGR for revenue: 12%+, the growth rate is quite stable
Gross profit margin peaked at 20% and then dropped, but has since recovered slightly and stabilised at around 16%
To really evaluate the profitability of its operations, I isolated contributions from its Joint Venture (not really significant) and its Associate (Wilmar, VERY significant) - average net margin achieved on its operations is 10%

Now, this is where Wilmar's earnings fluctuations and disposals of sugar-related operations hit PPB - bottom line...i.e. Earnings Per Share. EPS has been erratic, and on a downward trend.

The way I see it, PPB is like a hybrid, some sort of a hybrid security - when you invest in PPB, you are investing in PPB's businesses AND PPB's interest in Singapore-listed Wilmar International.

Good or bad? PPB's businesses in Malaysia are quite strong, some are household names. From what I read, their operations in ASEAN also doing okay too. Now, the million dollar question is...how is Wilmar doing?

http://ir-media.wilmar-international.com/p...ncialHighlights

Comments? notworthy.gif
gark
post Dec 9 2014, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 8 2014, 06:07 PM)
Oh I got it already

>50% of PPB's earnings are contributed by Wilmar's earnings

Wilmar's results hit PPB's earnings, but not revenue, because PPB consolidates Wilmar as an associate

Wilmar's recent performance really that bad? Calling ASEAN specialist Unker gark to comment notworthy.gif

If u look at PPB's quarterly report, all of its segments reported better revenue and margins; it's Wilmar that is dragging PPB down.
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CPO down, soybean down = negative refining and crushing margins ....

Wilmar have very little plantations, it is mostly a CPO refiner and soybean crusher. When CPO and soybean prices comes down, then they are stuck with high cost inventory, hence losing on margins.
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 9 2014, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 9 2014, 10:01 AM)
CPO down, soybean down = negative refining and crushing margins ....

Wilmar have very little plantations, it is mostly a CPO refiner and soybean crusher. When CPO and soybean prices comes down, then they are stuck with high cost inventory, hence losing on margins.
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Margin losses will last until they clear their old (expensive) inventory

forward outlook will be better...no? unsure.gif
gark
post Dec 9 2014, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 9 2014, 10:05 AM)
Margin losses will last until they clear their old (expensive) inventory

forward outlook will be better...no? unsure.gif
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Refining and soybean crushing net margins is less than 2%, and even sometimes at slight negative. Wilmar earn their money mostly through trading.. ie. buy raw inventory when it's 'cheaper' and sell refined oils when it's 'price is higher'.

They have lots of storage tanks which can last for months 'waiting' for the right price. That is why you see Wilmar can post fantastic margins >20% when the CPO/Soybean is going up and negative when it's coming down.

You must understand HOW a business makes money before you can estimate their future earnings.. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 9 2014, 10:12 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 9 2014, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 9 2014, 10:11 AM)
Refining and soybean crushing net margins is less than 2%, Wilmar earn their money mostly through trading.. ie. buy raw inventory when it's 'cheaper' and sell refined oils when it's 'price is higher'.

They have lots of storage tanks which can last for months 'waiting' for the right price. That is why you see Wilmar can post fantastic margins >20% when the CPO/Soybean is going up and negative when it's coming down.

You must understand HOW a business makes money before you can estimate  their future earnings..  wink.gif
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sweat.gif
mikehwy
post Dec 9 2014, 10:39 AM

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I guess the cpo prices r going nowhere near term.
Would skip this.
ahwai
post Dec 9 2014, 04:16 PM

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USD strengthening benefit CPO players
felixmask
post Dec 9 2014, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(ahwai @ Dec 9 2014, 04:16 PM)
USD strengthening benefit CPO players
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foreseen CPO dont go down. biggrin.gif
ahwai
post Dec 9 2014, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Dec 9 2014, 04:25 PM)
foreseen CPO dont go down.  biggrin.gif
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ye ke? SELL only
felixmask
post Dec 9 2014, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(ahwai @ Dec 9 2014, 04:32 PM)
ye ke? SELL only
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I ASK U...U ask yourself blink.gif
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ahwai
post Dec 9 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Dec 9 2014, 04:35 PM)
I ASK U...U ask yourself  blink.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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hahaha my tips .. Sell on rebound.. dead cat bounce

Teroid
post May 17 2015, 04:04 PM

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