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 PPB Group, Long term fundamental stock

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gark
post Dec 9 2014, 10:01 AM

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From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia....
QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 8 2014, 06:07 PM)
Oh I got it already

>50% of PPB's earnings are contributed by Wilmar's earnings

Wilmar's results hit PPB's earnings, but not revenue, because PPB consolidates Wilmar as an associate

Wilmar's recent performance really that bad? Calling ASEAN specialist Unker gark to comment notworthy.gif

If u look at PPB's quarterly report, all of its segments reported better revenue and margins; it's Wilmar that is dragging PPB down.
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CPO down, soybean down = negative refining and crushing margins ....

Wilmar have very little plantations, it is mostly a CPO refiner and soybean crusher. When CPO and soybean prices comes down, then they are stuck with high cost inventory, hence losing on margins.
gark
post Dec 9 2014, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 9 2014, 10:05 AM)
Margin losses will last until they clear their old (expensive) inventory

forward outlook will be better...no? unsure.gif
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Refining and soybean crushing net margins is less than 2%, and even sometimes at slight negative. Wilmar earn their money mostly through trading.. ie. buy raw inventory when it's 'cheaper' and sell refined oils when it's 'price is higher'.

They have lots of storage tanks which can last for months 'waiting' for the right price. That is why you see Wilmar can post fantastic margins >20% when the CPO/Soybean is going up and negative when it's coming down.

You must understand HOW a business makes money before you can estimate their future earnings.. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 9 2014, 10:12 AM

 

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