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 US stock discussion v3, Double Bottom coming?

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bellion
post Mar 25 2011, 01:05 PM

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Seems like recent postings in this thread is all about equity options rather than about actual stock investments.

By the way, do of you posters here own US stocks or purchase such stocks upon which you trade options?
bellion
post Mar 25 2011, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 25 2011, 06:16 PM)
It is again, individual preference. If one like to trade gold/silver, by all mean concentrate there.
No bro, you're half correct. Refer to few pages behind. Options is another investment tool that you can leverage on. Buy stock (equity) and follows by OPTIONS. Not a bad idea, if you know how.
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Been doing that for more than a decade.

From my experience, it's a lot better if one owns the underlying stock upon which options are bought and sold rather than just trade the options themselves.

This post has been edited by bellion: Mar 25 2011, 08:47 PM
bellion
post Mar 25 2011, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Mar 25 2011, 08:54 PM)
Thanks, that one is a good one. I got OPTION of LVS, BAC with underlying share as well.

Can you share some of your OPTIONS Do and Don't?  thumbup.gif
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Typical straightforward option strategies but the rule of thumb being that particularly every option trade that I do, I own the underlying equity or at least intend to purchase it at a targeted price if the stock price drop (such as in a naked put strategy).

Covered call writing and naked puts are my preferred option strategies. I also always look to buy back options that have over time fallen in value as a risk management technique.

I am not much of a technical analyst (very much a value type investor + a bit of growth investing thrown into it for good measure).
bellion
post Mar 25 2011, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 25 2011, 10:01 PM)
Bellion - those are good strategies since you've the underlying stocks or funds to cover the puts.
I also used the same method for protecting my long shares or trying to buy cheaper share if the stock falls below my level.

For equities with no underlying shares, I use spread strategy (either bulls calls or bears calls) depending on market sentiments.
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You mean credit spreads? I don't have a knack for it.

My primary returns from investment are derived from value investing which means long hold on fundamentally sound stocks - I utilize option writing to augment these returns from time to time.

This post has been edited by bellion: Mar 25 2011, 10:21 PM
bellion
post Apr 7 2011, 10:07 PM

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As its earnings season, you gents and ladies should consider making day trades now by reading the pre-market announcements.

I bought Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Immucor (BLUD) yesterday and sold them a short while ago for some quick profits. BBBV went up almost 5 bucks today after earnings announcement was made yesterday.
bellion
post Apr 7 2011, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 7 2011, 10:14 PM)
yes, true but if the post announcement for future projection is bad, they you go... DOWNHILL.
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That's why you need to read the reports before the surge happens or just at the start of it and catch the momentum.

A hedging method is to buy those stocks which you don't mind holding long term even if prices go south.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 7 2011, 10:59 PM)
The hedging is with OPTIONS. Normally the market shoot up in after-market trading, to catch traders off guard.
Everyone have a different strategy. I made 3 attempt in the earning calender to it and in all 3 failed. The company yes, good EPS, everything so solid but the conference call afterward reveals that they are not so generous on the dividend payment or having a bearish outlook. All 3 are NYSE/NASDAQ components.

I rather go old-school. By the way, BUY AND HOLDS nowadays holds little or no truth already..  thumbup.gif
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On the contrary, I have had good success with day trades in my years of trading during earnings season. There are several factors that I consider beyond merely EPS.

Why is buy and hold no longer relevant? Please provide some reasons. I do a combination of buy-and-hold (value investing) augmented by selling options and day trades during earnings season.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:26 AM)
Okay, fair enough. Now, let's share the coming good stocks that will make a handsome returns. Share it with us over here.

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Check out North American centric energies with good FCF and low to mid PEG ratios.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 09:25 AM)
AIG and C i guess yiou know......never really liked finance cos after seeing U.S finance in 2000s. i sold ALL my HBC in 07 and planted into precious metals. i have been holding HBC since Tiananmen......   biggrin.gif
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For value investing, I suggest looking at global macro themes e.g. energies, transport, etc and then zooming in on those companies that meet your requirements. Personally, I utilize a mix of growth and defensive stocks e.g. Apple for growth and Coca-Cola and P&G as defensive, dividend-yielding stocks. Note there are some stocks that have good dividend yields and still experience relatively good growth such as the North American energies and some South American FSIs.


Added on April 8, 2011, 10:11 am
QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:26 AM)
That are some of the examples. So, you can see by yourself. The words BUY and HOLD is not longer valid for overall market. This is not my words, but from FUND MANAGERS who managed over 20 billions $.
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You are examining the validity of buy-and-hold strategies from a time perspective and in a literal sense. Note that buy-and-hold can mean a time span of a mere few months to several years. In reality, fund managers who employ a buy-and-hold strategy (none less than the guru of them all Warren Buffett) have exit strategies as well as sell prices at which they will dispose of their stocks.


Added on April 8, 2011, 10:22 am
QUOTE(ronn77 @ Apr 8 2011, 09:55 AM)
Well, I'm still holding tight some financial stocks as although loomed outlook since subprime crisis but believe if you have holding power then the return might be worthwile unless if we are looking for quick gains. This is the commodity year, next year might be other sectors, who knows...
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Some of the banking counters look like a good buy with attractive price to book values. JPMC and Wells Fargo are my preferred picks for a long term hold (i.e. holding until the next economic boom).

The longest stock that I have held (and still have a good number of shares in my portfolio) is Coca-cola from 2001. I bought them after reading Warren Buffett's high praise and keen interest in the company.

This post has been edited by bellion: Apr 8 2011, 10:22 AM
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 10:27 AM)
Hey bellion

Fancy meeting you here....hope its more objective than Sing vs Msia!  biggrin.gif

Thanks fir your input...

since we have limited time as individuals, i have narrowed my focus to
precious metals which i have been resaerching since 2000.

As for defensive and high yield stoicks, i have invested at home in palm oil eg Boustead and consumer eg Panasonic...great yields and
still growing

Good point about exits....sometimes things do not turn out according to our assumptions or something else happens

eg recently a major silver miner had EPA problems...great company but short term something happened. Still cloudy so exited 50% of my holdings....
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You can't get anymore objective when its comes to value investing.

I am keeping only one home-grown stock at the moment which is Public Bank and it has been a good compound growth stock over the years.

Just as we select our entry points in buying stocks, we should always have exit strategies and a sell price discipline.

Regarding metals, I have very little experience in it besides a one-time purchase and eventual sell-off for a Canadian gold producer called Yamana Gold.

My current preferences are North American centric energy stocks, South American utilities and banks, a few US retail centric banks, one or two technology stocks, a few pharma counters and global O&G service providers. I periodically balance my portfolio with dividend-yielding defensive stocks such as the likes of Coca-cola, P&G, J&J, American Exp, etc.

This post has been edited by bellion: Apr 8 2011, 10:47 AM
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 8 2011, 10:46 AM)
Don't forget these two tech giants:
CSCO  April 2001 $17   April 2011 $18
MSFT   April 2001 $33   April 2011 $26

Also, giant industrial:
GE       April 2001 $40   April 2011 $20

10 YEARS... they're still flat or 1/2 of their previous high.   doh.gif

BUY and HOLD???  Better BUY and PRAY!!  laugh.gif
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Buy and hold strategies does not exclude the premise of a selling strategy. It merely means holding until an opportune time exists to sell.

Note that NO INVESTOR - either amateur or professional has been or will be able to time the market consistently.

This post has been edited by bellion: Apr 8 2011, 10:52 AM
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 10:52 AM)
You have a pretty wide range of U.S stocks. You do this full time?

PBB is a great stock....returns would have been great.

Ahhhh Yamana Gold....great company, louse of a management in Marrone CEO.....had it, sold it.......too much dilution of shares

i have been following PMs since gold was $220 and silver, $3
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I am semi-retired so I do spend a fair bit of time reading and researching stocks, bonds, index funds, REITs, properties and other asset classes. I utilize trading strategies revolving around two option approaches and day trades during earnings season to augment my returns but do NOT replace my overall strategy of value investing, asset class diversification, cost averaging and portfolio rebalancing. In my opinion, any investor (amateur or professional) with NET returns of 15% or more annually for a period of 5 years or more is doing a might fine job for his or her net worth.


bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 11:02 AM)
i see.

15% is a great return over time......gold bullion has been proving more than that in the last 10 years....
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If you had the holding power and kept gold and silver related stocks over the past several years, you would be a rich man now.

I have very little understanding of these precious metal markets hence I refrained from investing in them.

I suppose "buy-and-hold" or more accurately "buy-and-hold until sell off at your sell price" is not so appealing to a lot of the younger investors due to its longer time frame, the need to do copious amounts of research and most significantly, the amount of capital that needs to be locked in during the holding period. More so when purchasing US stocks such as Apple, IBM or Goldman Sachs which go well into the 3 digits for share prices.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 11:12 AM)
i had been holding gold since 2002. Been in PM stcoks since 2004.....not too bad....2008 was a shocker

Havent sold a single oz of phjysical yet....

Gotta go...plane to catch...see ya later


Added on April 8, 2011, 11:12 amGolds at new record $1465
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2008 would not be a shocker now if you deployed dollar-cost averaging strategies. That's where available cash to invest is king - always keep a good hoard of ready cash to pounce in such special situations.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Apr 8 2011, 12:37 PM)
Right! i had cash...i just cashed out of HBC and planted them into PM stocks. But imagine the slide!  rclxub.gif
Thats when i bought SLW at $3 average.....its a 13 bagger now at $45. i am glad i stayed the course

Gold went from $1000 to $680 in 9 months...silver went from $19 to $8.50......but it quickly recovered
Was expecting the PMs to do well in the financial crisis. But it didnt then....  rclxub.gif

Held on for dear life  biggrin.gif

You are right about cost averaging. Thats the way to make the returns.
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Dollar cost averaging and portfolio re-balancing have been the main contributors to my stock returns in all my years of investing.

This is due to the fact that no-one except God can consistently time the market. Anyone saying they can is a poker-faced liar.

If the fundamentals are there, you will eventually get your returns.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 8 2011, 07:50 PM)
Sorry, buy and hold on most cases now is not longer valid, even Warrent Buffet said so. Check his last one to one interview. In today's world, nobody can predict what will happen in the future.

So, taking on that cue, its entirely depends on one either to buy/hold, trade or contra. Everyone have different view. I only play commodities in 2005. So I have little experience. Would love to sit with you do discuss smile.gif are you in KL btw?
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What is your definition of buy and hold?

Warren Buffett never said such a thing - let's be clear about this.

You are correct that nobody can predict the future - more so when one is doing swing trades or depending heavily on derivatives or special instruments as one's primary investment vehicle.

Value investing has NOTHING to do with predicting the future - it has everything to do with buying viable businesses at prices which are deemed undervalued and selling them when the price reaches the level where one's objective or gains are reached.


bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:50 PM)
You must be damned good to see US future for the next 5 years notworthy.gif
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I said no such thing. Please re-read what I posted.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:58 PM)
I prefer to go for a 50% return for a year than a 15% a year for the next 5 years ( just focus on 1 year only )

Not in Dow though, and just my way.

I do not think practically Dow would behave in the same old fashion.

Dow is still in ICU with super low interest rate leh, and hanging on to QE2 or 3 is coming hmm.gif

Joke of the world though.
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"Not in Dow" means you are practising asset class diversification which is a good thing.

A low interest rate regime promotes the rise of stock indices hence your premise is not correct.
bellion
post Apr 8 2011, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 11:02 PM)
I could be wrong.

But . by re reading your statements, basically they relate  to sales, or careful  " selected statements" in relation to some sorts  of seminars.

Actual performances could be quite different.
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Huh? What seminars? Who's selling anything here?
bellion
post Apr 9 2011, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 11:48 PM)
Haha,

If I continue to read what you write in this forum for the next one year, then I believe so. rclxms.gif

Only time can tell the truth.
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Let me get this straight - I am not selling nor pushing any sort of investment seminars or gimmicks.

Getting a bit paranoid here, aren't you?

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