Good evening everyone,

We're just about 90mins away for the US UE July numbers.
Europe market now is dying and everyone else is watching US numbers.

If the numbers are worse than last month, we definitely get another sell off. If they come in better, then we'll get a relief pause or even maybe a short rally but definitely take your chance to get out before the weekend.

I'm hedge up with my puts and prepare to add more if the momentum to the downside increases.
This is where the 'sell' algorithms will be in control and it will be super fast. Just like last year flash crash (April-June).
Looking at SP500 1150 possible target.

Don't be afraid to take a hard look at your portfolio and see what you can do minimize the hurt if you're long.
If you've enough dry powder, use it well. A lot of equities now below 2011 fair value.
Heck, even SPY the index matching SP500 is cheap now. I'll probably do a blind buy if we get another 5% drop here.
Need to spread out the buys in stages.

Good luck to all. The bears are in control now.

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Added on August 5, 2011, 8:34 pm

Relief is here:

UE: 9.1% (July) vs 9.2% (June)
Non-farm total: 117k (July) vs 46k (June) this is better than expected!
Private: 154k (July) vs 80k (June)

Cover all shorts.. we're going to bounce here or at least pause from falling.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2011, 08:42 PM

Hard to pick the bottom but tonight we should get a pause here from the freefall.
I'm covering and try to sell the pop to trim my risky exposure.

For decent rally, both SP500 and Dow needs that 2.5% or higher.

Opps... selling algorithms still in control here.. too much supply, everyone wants to get out to take advantage of the good data. All going red for now.

The better Jobs report is US not enough to allay the fears in Europe.
Panic in Europe continues.. EU head says "calm down, look at the fundamentals".

But the fundamentals in Europe is WORSE than US.. so market continues downslide here.
Spain and Italy.. both combine worst than Greece.

I think for market to turn around, US has to lead again. Need more better macro data here.

Let see what next week will bring.
Uncle Ben won't appear until the final hour.

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Added on August 5, 2011, 10:26 pmBuy algorithms are in control now.. short covering seems to be in place. Need market to grind itself at least flat or higher than yesterday close. Watching that SP 1186~SP 1214 range.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2011, 10:26 PM

Buy algo turned into Sell ago again.. what a quickie turnaround.

Lots of sellers than buyers at the moment. Watching to see if this would fall and test SP 1165~1170 by closing.
Almost near capitulation...market needs to complete flush before recovering.

I'm seeing a lot of triggers now.. including those high dividends yielding stocks are falling giving up more than 12 months worth of gains. It is definitely going to take a while to overcome the selling pressure.

Going to stagger my buys here in stages.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2011, 11:45 PM

Here it comes... 1170 and keep falling.

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Added on August 6, 2011, 12:01 amGoing to set my buy here at 1165-1170... algo oversold again.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 6 2011, 12:01 AM

Got to make money.. short term day trade only.
I will bail by closing if this doesn't work.

Bouncing back up to 1180... moving my stop up. need a bit more to lock in my profits.

Nobody cares about the US Postal office.. they're in red for many years already.
Most in US now use UPS or FedEx or other private courier services.

Yes, wait for Fed govt or Uncle Ben or Bro Tim to step out.. then we'll have a super rally again.

Locking in my 1/2 of my gains at 1192.

Nah... people like him and Warren Buffet doesn't care much about this (the ups and downs of the market).

Infact if there is another recession, it will only make them EVEN richer because their competitors will be out,
they will go out any buy more cheaper assets.

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Added on August 6, 2011, 12:40 amNice.. I can see buying algo now wants to meet up again with the decline 50ema line. That's where I unload my second half... hopefully probably 1215 or higher.

Sorry for the tech speak.. that's how those crazy computers are trading today. Majority of them are just machines throwing shares across the exchanges going with the patterns. If you know these patterns, just go with it.





This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 6 2011, 12:40 AM

Ka-Ching!! SP 1210... I'm out! Got my dinner for this weekend.
That's good enough for me.

Here's my take on this.

The market is pretty volatile when everyone else panic.
As small guys like us, you need to learn to be patience and not to trade emotionally.

When you do this during times of major sell off, and you could sell all emotionally if you can't stand the pain anymore, that is when you will realize you made the biggest mistake because of selling at the bottom!

So, calm down, have a cup of coffee or teh tarik something. If you're already long, just stay put for now. Review your portfolio and watch for opportunity to average down.

Learn the technicals.. watch for the support/resistance level. This is very important because this is how the algos are trading. Since we've broken the key support, it may take a while for demand to overcome the supply at the top.

So again, don't panic. IMO, we're not back in 2008 yet but the financial news are already playing the "double dip" scenario in people mind.

Good luck to all.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 6 2011, 01:00 AM

Dow 11444.61 +60.93 +0.54%
Nasdaq 2532.41 -23.98 -0.94%
S&P500 1199.38 -0.69 -0.06%

Yo yo indeed! Very volatile..

If you take a look at today pattern.. it looks like a zoom in version of a the entire year of 2009 where March 09 printed the bottom and the V shape recovery happened. SP 500 prints 1168 and Dow prints 11140 as the lows of the day and followed a huge bounce up.. then.. sell into close and ended up flat.

I think that should be the floor for now (SP 1168). Needs a bounce back up next week. Uncle Ben will appear during FOMC meeting. Also, they (Euro Central Bank) don't make stupid decisions over the weekend.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 6 2011, 07:26 AM

Wow.. S&P really pulls the carpet to reveal another trap door for the market.

This could be also S&P way of taking shots back at the US govt because of their bickering over the artificial debt ceiling or trying to get back because of their mistakes stamping AAA rating over the mortgages-back securities couple of years ago.

It was already rumor during of the trading day than S&P may downgrade on Friday, therefore the market tanks to 1168 lows during open despite better job report. At 1168 lows, this could be baked in. Market pops back up after ECB said that a deal may be struck for Italy/Spain but fades into close.

It's definitely going to be volatile day again on Monday. Asia and Euro market will suffer first because of the uncertainty where US market will go and it will open much later.

Anyway, let's see what we got so far.

Upside: SP 1220 (no catalyst next week unless better macro data or good news from FOMC meeting)
Downside: SP 1170, if this breaks, then SP 1120 to 1170 could be in play.
The floor at 1120 could be extremely dangerous because the market close at the border of bears territory.

Also, got to watch the Dollar. If Dollar goes down because sovereign funds are unloading Treasuries,
then equities will go up, not down. If Dollar spikes because fear, then equities and commodities will go down.

I think either way, most likely we will probably see a spike in Gold again (safe haven for now during times of uncertainty).

If you're long term player for equities, look for the companies which have consistently beaten earnings estimates for the past 3~4 quarters and ready to buy those because their PE are coming down and they will be very attractive soon.

Good luck to everyone and trade safely!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 6 2011, 10:21 PM

Like a I've already mentioned, the 'debt ceiling' is artificial. It is not that US can't pay it debtors (unlike Greece/Italy/Portugal/Spain/Ireland), it is just that the divided US Congress is playing with fire on 'how' to pay them.
S&P already warned them well ahead in April that any delay in the policy will result in downgrade. It happens now even though the debt ceiling already been raised and a spending cuts between 2.1 and 2.4 trillion over 10 years. S&P was looking for 4 trillions cuts. If interest rates rise because of this, may cost the US govt additional $100 bln/year to pay its debtor. The other two rating agencies (Moody and Fitch) maintain US's AAA rating. So, nothing may happen for now.
But, it will be interesting to see how the financial market will react tomorrow.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 7 2011, 10:07 PM

Yes, nothing much will happen. But, Japan continues to experience stagnation even after 20 years. Can't go up, can't go down. Japanese too frugal to spend.

On the other hand, US will spend themselves into prosperity.

Tonight, will be watching that line: SP 1168-1170.
I'll buy if market won't tank below it. I'll let the selling (usually first 1-2 hours) to get subsided.

Good luck to everyone.

Last Friday SP 1168 floor broken. I'm staying on the sidelines.
Need to see if 1150 can hold or not by later.

Ok to catch but must use thick gloves.

Looks like today low could be 1151 (close enough to 1150) but I'm not holding overnight here.
Need to see a bounce back up to 1168 or close above for reversal.

Everything is discounted.. cheap cheap sale.

Let's hope so.. if this drops below 1150, I'm bailing. I got my stop here now.
Need to have a catalyst first.

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Added on August 9, 2011, 2:05 amI'm out.. 1152.. scalp $200 bucks only.
Absolutely no bid for this market.

Let' see if we can test 1120 by tomorrow.

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Added on August 9, 2011, 2:23 amDow 11K gone. 10.5k will be next.
Selling begat selling.

Let's take look at financials - worst hit:

C - $27.50 (cheap!)
BAC - $6.50 (cheaper!!)

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 9 2011, 02:23 AM

Panic selling today.. accelerating downwards after that floor breaks.

Watch for Dow 10800 and SP 1120.

Gold spiked $65+..
$VIX spiked 40+%

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Added on August 9, 2011, 3:09 amSP 1123 low for today... should be the floor for now unless we get more bad news again.
Bouncing back up to 1135.. 50 minutes to go for trading.

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Added on August 9, 2011, 3:24 amAAPL finally got back to $350'ish. Got some Jan '12 calls here.

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Added on August 9, 2011, 4:13 amFinal tally and damage done today

Dow 10810.76 -633.85 -5.54%
Nasdaq 2357.69 -174.72 -6.90%
S&P500 1199.46 -79.92 -6.66%

That's it folks.. if we go down another leg to SP 1080.. this market will be toast.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 9 2011, 04:13 AM