It is probably very busy.. my VPN connection to US also dropping to Just2trade site.

But, MBtrading and TD Ameritrade are ok. Very smooth.

Dow Futures all red as expected!

Market still got overhang from the bad jobs numbers on Friday but now the excuse here
is another FEAR from the Euro zone. This time is Italy! It is alleging falling apart now.

Final Tally

Dow 12505.76 -151.44 -1.20%
Nasdaq 2802.62 -57.19 -2.00%
S&P500 1319.49 -24.31 -1.81% <-- nice spot at 50MA!

US market now is afraid the unknown in Europe now that it is at the highs..
but didn't care for anything just over a week and half ago when this problem was already brewing.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 12 2011, 07:13 AM

Watching SP500 or SPY today... if it can't hold 50MA at 1315, just get out of the way otherwise it will be wonderful buy.

Watch Silver and Gold.. these two precious metals are moving up.

Buy signal in.. can't fight the Fed. Bernanke talking about additional stimulus.

Both SLV and GLD will be worth quite a bit if US misses the Aug 2 deadline or rating agencies decided to cut
US AAA status.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 14 2011, 12:54 PM

The market been very strange these past 2 trading sessions. Pop in the 1st half, sell off in the 2nd half.
Tomorrow is option expiration. I bet same thing will happen again. Not moving anywhere.

Good evening Z,

I'm not trading this week. Off on my vacation,.. but occasionally take a peek at the market since last week.
Can't stay completely away since I'm a wall street addict.

Anyway, major disappointment for the banks.. Goldman Sachs also went south together with BAC.
Same goes for C - no bad news but sliding on this receding tide.

I'm holding out for JPM - last hope. JPM better delivers or else.

OMG.. $400 darn! I sold my AUG covered calls just last week before I went for vacation.
If AAPL stays above $400 by Aug expiration, I'll lose my shares.

G'evening folks,

Took a peek at the market over the weekend... still up and slowly grinding up here. Mostly because of earnings. So far, 65% of the SP500 companies have better than expected profits and beaten earnings estimates despite horrible macro data - Euro zone, and looming US debt issues.

I'll be back trading again after Aug 5th. I'll continue to watch the market from beach.

Good luck to all trading!

There's quite a bit of upside surprise in earnings for some of US companies. Look at AAPL -> very strong earnings and because they had such a low expectation, they've moving the other direction when the market seems to falter here.
This is going to generate even more buying pressure when market moves north again.

After hours, I did a peek at LVS. They finally has a very nice Q2 earnings! Pretty strong too.
Beat on both EPS and Revenue this time.

I think with the looming debt crisis and if there is a downgrade or default, market may at most pull back 5%~10%, and if it happens, it will be great buying opportunity.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 27 2011, 10:23 AM

Nice buy for TZA... Should continue to work until they sort out this debt ceiling mess.

Would love to see SP500 drops to 1250 for better re-entry.

AAPL -> like to see it dips to $350 for good reload.

Have to use $cash.. what else...


Anyway, I'm back from my holidays.

Dow 12240.11 -62.44 -0.51%
Nasdaq 2766.25 +1.46 +0.05%
S&P500 1300.67 -4.22 -0.32%

What a lovely retreat.. anyway, nasdaq seems to buck the trend a bit today but two majors gave up after
US house delay the vote.

Got to be careful tonight shorting into the weekend. If those crazy folks at Washington DC decided to pass the bill,
by Monday, we'll see euphoric bulls again.

I'm hoping for at least another leg down to the 200 DMA before jumping in on the long side.
Need to watch this.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 29 2011, 10:15 AM

Yeah..Be ware of those sharp horns (or claws because this Bull could be Bear in disguise).

Anyway, what a week.
US govt still playing the ping-pong game with the debt ceiling bill. I think nothing will be decided until the 11th hour by Aug 2nd.

Dow 12143.23 -96.87 -0.79%
Nasdaq 2756.38 -9.87 -0.36%
S&P500 1392.28 -8.39 -0.65%

The major indices despite red, still managed to close above the 200MA level. Remember to use good stops if you're buying at this level.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 30 2011, 09:38 AM

Don't panic guys, we've seen this before.

SP 1250 to SP 1350 still in range
Dow 11600 to 12900 still in range

Tonight macro data:
ADP job (private sector) up to 114k for July but much less than the revised 145k June numbers.
Market seems to have lower expectation this time.. only 86k.

Safe haven-> GLD indeed

But, get ready to trim some GLD position if equities ready to move up.
I think we're ready to bounce up soon.

Watch that floor for SP500 1250. I'm buying here with tight stop.

Adding my position for CAT (Dec calls), getting ready to rebuy back my AAPL calls,
also adding FCX (copper play).

Trading LVS again.. 45 is a good nice spot for awesome Macau and Singapore growth.
Q2 results finally delivers.

I'm staying away from banks at the moment. Doing absolutely nothing for C or JPM for now.

This Friday job report (for July) will be pretty important.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 3 2011, 09:10 PM

Same here.. I add GLD to my position everytime it tanks or if there's a pull back because of fear in market or dollar going down and trim it if there is a 'feel good' kinda feeling in the market. GLD movement is very slow but seems like good long term holding for now as long as US Treasury and interest rates continue to be at historical low level. I think we may see Gold price soar to US$2K/oz by early next year.

As for the latest action, let's take a look at what happened overnight.

The market starts off with some semi-positive numbers (ADP private job @@ 114k) but
was disappointed with the ISM non-mfg: 52.7 (July) vs 53.3 (June), clearly a decline
in the economy. The selling program kicks in and it is downhill from here at the 1st hour.

SP500 dived below 1450 (that's the trap door to watch for) and once it drops below that level,
selling accelerated because a lot of stops were taken out as well, everything falls like mahjong tiles..
A lot of capitulation here because of that psychological level. Suddenly, market is trading below Japan quake level
based on over-exaggerated fear here. US is not in recession yet but it is trading as if it is. So, when there
is a mis-price, the funds waiting for bargain price will start to buy. The algo saw this pattern and follows.
This is where we (retail investors) need to jump in as well.

You can see how the prices move in tandem and to be trending along with the exp. moving averages.
Once it breaks above the 200ema and then followed by a re-test of 50ema line, we got a bullish divergence.
The buying algo continues higher bid and ask till close.

As a result, the major indices scored green at close. This is much better than yesterday.
From the lows of the day. All in all, we got a pretty good rally (feels like a +2% day).

Dow 11896.44 +29.82 +0.25%
Nasdaq 2693.07 +23.83 +0.89%
S&P500 1260.34 +6.29 +0.50%

As a trader, I just have to ignore all the crazy headlines news.. just watch the trend and trade along with it to make money in this crazy market and just buy when there is capitulation. All those noise will be gone and forgotten by next week.

I hope SP500 1234 should be the low for this year..and short of any more bearish macro data, I think the market will attempt to consolidate around here before moving higher.

Thursday evening: Initial claims
Friday evening: July job numbers (this one is important). If this one is bad... don't hold long over the weekend.

Good luck to all, keep a tight stop and may all make money!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 4 2011, 07:13 PM

Yes, stocks are cheap here.. it is below the 2011 benchmark now and we're back to Q4 of 2010 earnings.
At this level: SP1220'ish, IMO, this market is pricing in bad job numbers tomorrow evening.
So, I'm buying and adding now.

Adding more CAT and FCX calls.

Waiting for AAPL... this thing is incredibly strong despite market pulling back hard.





This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2011, 12:33 AM

Everyone,

Look for companies that have beaten earnings expectation since last 3Q.. and these are the ones you want to buy and hold for much longer term (at least 3 months) if the market fails to rally back or may taken longer than usual to bounce back.

Good luck and trade safely!

Good morning guys and gals!

Oh man..What a beating!! Definitely feels like '08 or early '09 crash.

When SP500 unable to rally back up above 1230 after the dip to 1220,
I have no choice but to bail out from some of calls and to jump to puts immediately to hedge with my some over calls.
Huge volume here.. lots of selling into close. This time, even AAPL got sold off.

Be sure to know your risk when you're buying here. The floor that was 1220 (or Dow 11500) now become resistance.

Watch for the big UE number tonight.. it is going to be a pretty wild ride for sure.