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 US stock discussion v3, Double Bottom coming?

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prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 8 2011, 10:06 AM)
For value investing, I suggest looking at global macro themes e.g. energies, transport, etc and then zooming in on those companies that meet your requirements.  Personally, I utilize a mix of growth and defensive stocks e.g. Apple for growth and Coca-Cola and P&G as defensive, dividend-yielding stocks.  Note there are some stocks that have good dividend yields and still experience relatively good growth such as the North American energies and some South American FSIs.

Added on April 8, 2011, 10:11 am
You are examining the validity of buy-and-hold strategies from a time perspective and in a literal sense.  Note that buy-and-hold can mean a time span of a mere few months to several years.  In reality, fund managers who employ a buy-and-hold strategy (none less than the guru of them all Warren Buffett) have exit strategies as well as sell prices at which they will dispose of their stocks.
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Hey bellion

Fancy meeting you here....hope its more objective than Sing vs Msia! biggrin.gif

Thanks fir your input...

since we have limited time as individuals, i have narrowed my focus to
precious metals which i have been resaerching since 2000.

As for defensive and high yield stoicks, i have invested at home in palm oil eg Boustead and consumer eg Panasonic...great yields and
still growing

Good point about exits....sometimes things do not turn out according to our assumptions or something else happens

eg recently a major silver miner had EPA problems...great company but short term something happened. Still cloudy so exited 50% of my holdings....
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 8 2011, 10:45 AM)
You can't get anymore objective when its comes to value investing. 

I am keeping only one home-grown stock at the moment which is Public Bank and it has been a good compound growth stock over the years.

Just as we select our entry points in buying stocks, we should always have exit strategies and a sell price discipline. 

Regarding metals, I have very little experience in it besides a one-time purchase and eventual sell-off for a Canadian gold producer called Yamana Gold. 

My current preferences are North American centric energy stocks, South American utilities and banks, a few US retail centric banks, one or two technology stocks, a few pharma counters and global O&G service providers.  I periodically balance my portfolio with dividend-yielding defensive stocks such as the likes of Coca-cola, P&G, J&J, American Exp, etc.
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You have a pretty wide range of U.S stocks. You do this full time?

PBB is a great stock....returns would have been great.

Ahhhh Yamana Gold....great company, louse of a management in Marrone CEO.....had it, sold it.......too much dilution of shares

i have been following PMs since gold was $220 and silver, $3
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 8 2011, 10:59 AM)
I am semi-retired so I do spend a fair bit of time reading and researching stocks, bonds, index funds, REITs, properties and other asset classes.  I utilize trading strategies revolving around two option approaches and day trades during earnings season to augment my returns but do NOT replace my overall strategy of value investing, asset class diversification, cost averaging and portfolio rebalancing.  In my opinion, any investor (amateur or professional) with NET returns of 15% or more annually for a period of 5 years or more is doing a might fine job for his or her net worth.
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i see.

15% is a great return over time......gold bullion has been proving more than that in the last 10 years....
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 8 2011, 11:08 AM)
If you had the holding power and kept gold and silver related stocks over the past several years, you would be a rich man now.

I have very little understanding of these precious metal markets hence I refrained from investing in them.

I suppose "buy-and-hold" or more accurately "buy-and-hold until sell off at your sell price" is not so appealing to a lot of the younger investors due to its longer time frame, the need to do copious amounts of research and most significantly, the amount of capital that needs to be locked in during the holding period.  More so when purchasing US stocks such as Apple, IBM or Goldman Sachs which go well into the 3 digits for share prices.
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i had been holding gold since 2002. Been in PM stcoks since 2004.....not too bad....2008 was a shocker

Havent sold a single oz of phjysical yet....

Gotta go...plane to catch...see ya later

Added on April 8, 2011, 11:12 amGolds at new record $1465

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 8 2011, 11:12 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 8 2011, 11:21 AM)
2008 would not be a shocker now if you deployed dollar-cost averaging strategies.  That's where available cash to invest is king - always keep a good hoard of ready cash to pounce in such special situations.
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Right! i had cash...i just cashed out of HBC and planted them into PM stocks. But imagine the slide! rclxub.gif
Thats when i bought SLW at $3 average.....its a 13 bagger now at $45. i am glad i stayed the course

Gold went from $1000 to $680 in 9 months...silver went from $19 to $8.50......but it quickly recovered
Was expecting the PMs to do well in the financial crisis. But it didnt then.... rclxub.gif

Held on for dear life biggrin.gif

You are right about cost averaging. Thats the way to make the returns.
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 8 2011, 07:50 PM)
Sorry, buy and hold on most cases now is not longer valid, even Warrent Buffet said so. Check his last one to one interview. In today's world, nobody can predict what will happen in the future.

So, taking on that cue, its entirely depends on one either to buy/hold, trade or contra. Everyone have different view. I only play commodities in 2005. So I have little experience. Would love to sit with you do discuss smile.gif are you in KL btw?
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Was in KL. Back home now. smile.gif

Read what bellion said about Buy and hold.
Buy and hold does not mean AND fall in love with it and die come what may.
One must have an exit strategy when things changes such as assumptions gone sour, management screws company, etc
Case in point - HSBC. i bought since 1989 Tiananmen. Held till 2007 when sensed that U.S financials gonna
suffer and GOLD wass gonna profit- SOLD

Case in point: SLW - would you have sold? When?
Since 2002, SLW biz plan has not changed, management not changed-still as good
Improving income, profits- why sell? wink.gif

Added on April 8, 2011, 10:14 pm
QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:58 PM)
I prefer to go for a 50% return for a year than a 15% a year for the next 5 years ( just focus on 1 year only )

Not in Dow though, and just my way.

I do not think practically Dow would behave in the same old fashion.

Dow is still in ICU with super low interest rate leh, and hanging on to QE2 or 3 is coming hmm.gif

Joke of the world though.
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If Dow was in ICU, why is it at 12,000? whistling.gif
More QE means higher DOW......JMHO

Added on April 8, 2011, 10:16 pmAGQ still ROCkin and ROLLin at $255! smile.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 8 2011, 10:16 PM
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2011, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 8 2011, 11:02 PM)
I could be wrong.

But . by re reading your statements, basically they relate  to sales, or careful  " selected statements" in relation to some sorts  of seminars.

Actual performances could be quite different.
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You are wrong. He was discussing with me.

He said

QUOTE
In my opinion, any investor (amateur or professional) with NET returns of 15% or more annually for a period of 5 years or more is doing a might fine job for his or her net worth.


Nothing to do with sales. Its all about stock investment. i replied him as well.

Oh BTW getting 50% returns in ONE year is a great thing.....genting huh?

QUOTE
quote=SKY 1809:  I prefer to go for a 50% return for a year than a 15% a year for the next 5 years ( just focus on 1 year only )


Care to share? smile.gif

prophetjul
post Apr 9 2011, 08:10 AM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 9 2011, 12:01 AM)
Let me get this straight - I am not selling nor pushing any sort of investment seminars or gimmicks.

Getting a bit paranoid here, aren't you?
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Hes probably a

user posted image

Added on April 9, 2011, 8:19 am
QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 9 2011, 12:16 AM)
For me - buy and hold only if one got sufficient cash to hold it over a longer period of time.
+exit strategy [use Bellion's Theory of Reality] (use trailing stop??)

If I got extra cash like 50K$ lying around, I will be comfortable with it of purchasing good stocks. Else, I will do swing or day trade.

Now back to topic, BUY and HOLD, how many shares that you are holding at each time? 5,000? 500? 50?
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Holding the number of shares depends on how you want to design your portfolio and of course your investment capital

For example

For my Precious metals portfolio
Firstly its divided into a) Gold b) silver started with 35% ,35% and cash 30%

Next sub divide further a) Major Miners b) Mid Tier miners c) Small Miners/Explorers
This i started with 50%, 35%, 15%

So along the way you do portfolio balancing as mentioned by bellion

i am actually now Gold 20% Silver 50% cash 30% due to the surge in silver prices. i sold some
silver stocks earlier Will do further rebalancing soon.
i still wanna ride silver a bit more.....AGQ stilll ROCKIN! $263 thumbup.gif

Added on April 9, 2011, 8:21 am
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 9 2011, 02:04 AM)
Darn.. not chasing this.  dry.gif

I'm just got some HL instead, playing catch up since it is Silver mining.
Broke out above the 100 SMA today.

Holding some TCK too, my fav play is back. Needs a bit more pull  back to load up another scoop.
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Dont chase .....wait for next correction
As for HL, i sold this miner due to the EPA penalty issue. bought it at $3.
Its a beautiful miner....wait till the EPA clears up in a few days. Anyway silver looks rather stretched..
when silver corrects, HL will do the same

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 9 2011, 08:21 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 9 2011, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 9 2011, 10:07 AM)
Darn it, my AAPL fried. less than 1 week option expiry and i'm on huge negative now. Fcuk. Should get Silver AGQ, but too scared to click buy, coz of cash running low.
50 shares already cost nearing 13,000$.
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Dont buy now.....risk/reward not worth it........look at the charts

RSI at 81!!! shocking.gif Wait for next cycle..... Mkts will always be there......patience
prophetjul
post Apr 12 2011, 07:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 11 2011, 11:13 PM)
SLV broke above $40. This AGQ balloon is getting bigger.. absolutely nuts.    shakehead.gif

Someone please stick a pin in there to let some air out..  laugh.gif

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Did it...prickked it at $268.33.....psssssssshhhhhhhhhh......to $254.......... biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 13 2011, 07:59 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 12 2011, 08:53 PM)
Not enough yet.. like to see a pull back to $200 in the coming week..  laugh.gif
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$200 is highly unlikely in this correction....that would mean silver at $34ish...

i see a bounce around $230...failing that $215.....

Silver's outta stock everywhere in U.S....premiums are at 12 to 15%!! drool.gif

Added on April 13, 2011, 8:01 am
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 13 2011, 06:19 AM)
Closing
Dow 12263.58 -117.53 -0.95%
Nasdaq 2744.79 -26.72 -0.96%
S&P500 1314.16 -10.30 -0.78%

When Goldman says sell oil, they panic and sold!  laugh.gif

IMO, that's just an excuse to sell, or aka what the market needs anyway for a
decent pull back before the next rally up.

Hey.. AAPL finally green on this red day: 332.40 (+1.60 +0.48%)
I think it may have found this bottom. 330 area.

I've bought back on May bull spread, sold off the puts spread during the dips. Just nimbling here, will add if the uptick continues the next trading day.  Also, looking for more dips buy for LVS too.
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Goldman Sucks is one of the biggest mkt manipulator.....when they say sell, they will be buying those who sell.
Always happens.....the suckers will always be there....thats why theres a mkt biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 13 2011, 08:02 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 13 2011, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 13 2011, 08:40 AM)
Evil Goldman probably already sold ahead of their call.  I remembered them calling for $100 oil in Oct, when Oil was trading around 70-80 and they bought huge load ahead of time.

Now, all basic metals including Copper also 'kena'.. damn Goldman!  mad.gif

Z: For AAPL trade, watch this interesting clip from that dude Cramer:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000016364
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Goldman always do that....thats why its manipulation......but then suckers are born every minute...

Cramers one of the worst.......hes already bought, the he starts to pump..in fact CNBC s just crappola...
i do opposite of what Cramer says! tongue.gif

Added on April 13, 2011, 9:20 amAGQ vs AAPL

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AGQ&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=aapl

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 13 2011, 09:21 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 13 2011, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 13 2011, 09:36 AM)
yes, cramer the scammer!

Boss, you compare of Apple vs Silver is not an APPLE to APPLE comparation.. Aiyo!
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Just for comparison on stock price gains.... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 13 2011, 09:46 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 13 2011, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 13 2011, 09:50 AM)
Haha, as suspected. Do yo u think Uranium is a good buy now? Still thinking my lovely URRE, URZ & gang. Made good $ riding URANIUM pre-Nippon nuclear crisis.
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Dont know much about Uranium. i am small player concerntrating on precious metals...no time for
anything else. smile.gif


prophetjul
post Apr 13 2011, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 13 2011, 02:44 PM)
Over a longer term period, all this is small potatoes.  What matters is that if the stocks you are holding in hand is a real gem and was bought at a good price, you can only gain.
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But, but i am a small potato............ wink.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 14 2011, 07:54 AM

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This one AG, up 12.27% at $23.05 with a high of $23.63......good trade
prophetjul
post Apr 15 2011, 07:27 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 15 2011, 12:16 AM)
Agreed.

In this poor market (2008-2011) we still see no commendable recovery in housing and employment.
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Thus the bet on Precious metals! biggrin.gif

Loaded more AGQ at $268....gonna sell this tonite......to my residual........Silver's so strong.......its amazing!

thumbup.gif

Added on April 15, 2011, 7:28 am
QUOTE(bellion @ Apr 15 2011, 12:34 AM)
I believe it's a sideways market over the next several years but companies are also pressured into raising dividends - case in point was when Microsoft even borrowed to pay dividends.  Which is why it's good to keep a good chunk of one's stock portfolio in high dividend yield stocks.
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bel

whats so good about a stock having to borrow to pay divs? rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Apr 15 2011, 07:28 AM
prophetjul
post Apr 15 2011, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Apr 15 2011, 09:11 AM)
AGQ: 278.64
+19.66 (7.59%)
After Hours: 280.84 +2.20 (0.79%)

Didn't do any justice, price up just for FUN? Gaaaaa....
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What justice? Just trade it! biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 15 2011, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 15 2011, 10:17 AM)
Silver will reach a tipping point soon... this thing can't just go up forever.

It will be really fun to ride this thing back down later.
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Been saying that since $30! How? biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 16 2011, 08:23 AM

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AGQ ROCKZ!! $289! +3.74% ! thumbup.gif
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