I wont be constantly short GU or EU. Go check your charts again. Back when GU was 1.50, everybody said it will go down to 1.30 and so forth, it rebounded back to 1.60 within couple of months.

agreed !

during that time , in monthly chart , it shows weak bull where GU is rallying from 1.36xx to 1.7xxx ..and somehow now , GU in correction mode back in 3-4 month before.

but currently GU is back to dive again :-)

that is what i saw in the chart :-)

GU is in the dive again because the market is trying to price in what the fed will do in the next policy meeting after the discount hike. But that doesn't mean USD has no problems of its own.

I got fooled by fake UJ trend breakout yesterday..

I see capitulation

I am really weak in the fundamentals and how the currencies react from one another.. where do u learn all this stuff?
Hope after i finish reading Economics for Dummies book i understand better..

Watch this BOYS


Attached thumbnail(s)

i hv updated new news/commentary/etc. those who want to share theirs pls post in below format. if any points u want to stress in the news, hope u can bold it or even better if highlighted. i'll update in 3rd post after that.



This post has been edited by Invince_Z: Feb 19 2010, 10:44 AM

what is capitulation, in this context ? enlighten me please

Those who went long in the range of 1.35-1.36 got stopped out early this morning as the Fed raised the discount rate. By understanding the behavior of the herd, now more and more people are jumping aboard to short euro due to the Fed's discount hike. And market has always taught you that if doomsayers are coming out and saying euro will reach parity to the dollar , etc, doesn't it usually mean a reversal is coming?

Why is forex thread still here if the Government announced that Forex is illegal in Malaysia?

Because we don't do forex in Malaysia perhaps?

cool!...mine got stuck!...

this motto been playing in my head...but still against the trend...guess,need to understand the term trend properly?...

got stuck in UJ also...seems it going up...need to wait till it get down...by now its slowly going...

yups!...it happened both to EU and GU...
again...the technique of reversal thingy made me wonder how to act?...didn't manage to join the forces...

This post has been edited by unknowndevices: Feb 19 2010, 11:45 AM

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p...postcount=21947

from my experience , if you experience reversal thingy , just stay away from the market ...it helps you to regenerate again your idea on market trend

trust me , i've been there too :-)

Lunch, see u all

i'm closing the GU pairs they r waiting for tonite (gmt+8) news.


UK retail sales may down..most probably.

EU news shall shake both GBP n USD. the effect shall be more on GBP than USD.

US news...expect GU pairs to reach below support 3. as the week ends.


am i on track? what do u think?

This post has been edited by Invince_Z: Feb 19 2010, 01:03 PM

First of all, i want to ask you if you have ever thought that the market has priced in bad news in both pounds and euro?

that is the bad side of me. honestly, i'm not. cant think of what would happen if EU got bad news.


btw, it happen just now. i was closing all GU pairs trade. simultaneously. i.e:

GBP/USD loss: 0.33 per pips (buy) - 8 items @ 0.33 total
GBP/USD profit: 0.54 per pips (sell) - 1 item @ 0.50

profit at time of close: 13.00

as all was closed, i notice the software close all buy, but 1 left sell. previously 0.50 sell was cut to 0.17 sell, at same sell price. that can happen meh? i never know that before.

Ok, try to think outside the bell curve, think of extreme events.

IF euro data comes out to be bad, how many pips do you think it will go down from here? Another 100? 200? 300?

What if the data turns out to be good?

So ask yourself this: What's my downside and upside risk ? (depending on which trade you take)

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Added on February 19, 2010, 3:04 pmNote:

If you have noticed, companies are hiking up their dividends, and repaying shareholders. This itself is a sign that the companies are confident going forward.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Feb 19 2010, 03:04 PM