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 Stock Market V49, MARKET REBORN LIKE A TIGER ROAR !!!

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cherroy
post Feb 4 2010, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 4 2010, 11:15 PM)
hmm talking about KNM... i had a look on KNM's babies...

I dont know whether IBs who offered CWs will adjust the Exercise price or ratio since KNM made the announcement.. I hope yes.. coz if not... many ppl will get burned...

*All the babies should still be alive when the privatisation exercise finishes
*I apologize first if my calculations are wrong.. i'm newbie  sweat.gif
*While mothershare holders are rejoicing, warrant holders are shivering now...  hmm.gif

*
No, Cws, or put warrant won't adjust their exercise price due to the announcement. They are not related, as CW, HW are warrant issued by third party, not related at all to the company.

All the babies won't be alive if privatisation exercise finishes, as KNM share no longer in the market or listed, if the privatisation completed. What's for those babies in the market if mother is no there anymore.

There is always clause in the CWs, whenever if the mothershare underlying no longer exist or whatever issue, they had set up rule how to deal with it. Can be final exercise based on privatisation price, or whatever they had put up prior before hand.

If the privatisation price is proposed at 0.90. Probably market fair price should be around 0.85, as it doesn't make sense for anyone to buy beyond or even at 0.90 if privatisation has strong possibilities go through, unless investors 0.90 is huge undervalued and don't want to sell at 0.90 for privatisation plan to go through.
cherroy
post Feb 5 2010, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(GregPG01 @ Feb 4 2010, 11:55 PM)
So tmr, call KNM warrant holders will  sweat.gif OR hold and hope it's a hoax.
*
Normally privatisation takes sometimes to be completed. Also, not every privatisation will definitely go through one.

It is in the stage of proposal. There are lot of work need to be done, by then some warrant may expire or near expire already. (sorry
cherroy
post Feb 5 2010, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 5 2010, 12:00 AM)
ahh interesting~~ so there is a glimmer of hope there... but again, IB sure take advantage and press warrant holders....  mad.gif
wahh excited to see what happens to KNM tomorrow... mother up up up babies down down down... laugh.gif
*
Generally, the clauses are already there when they issue the warrant time. Just one needs to dig into the details of it.

This is not like playing game, that simple can change the rule, but there is short term joy and longer term pain for CWs if privatisation go through.

Short term, KNM share goes up to 0.8x, so CWs follow a bit.
Longer term, KNM share won't go up more than 0.90 so does valuation on CWs, so whatever premium paid will be gone.

Generally if there is privatisation proposal, stock price generally stuck in a range until stituation of the privatisation is clear and near conclusion, until now it is under proposal stage, anything can still happen in between.

cherroy
post Feb 9 2010, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 9 2010, 04:57 PM)
my stone friend is cherroy  wub.gif

gua tarak care liao, i will store in freezer, until it reach RM12 or RM13.
*
Please don't turn me into stone... laugh.gif

Take years may be decade of polishing the stone before it can turn into gold. icon_rolleyes.gif
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Feb 10 2010, 08:56 AM)
Chinese trade balance data coming out soon
*
It should be called trade surplus data. tongue.gif
Not balance. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(jasontoh @ Feb 10 2010, 10:24 AM)
RM1 special divvy?  drool.gif  drool.gif
*
Sure boh? for a company that usually five 2/4 cents dividiend one, suddenly give RM1.00?

10 cents already big deal and shareholders will be jumping up and down.
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 10 2010, 11:10 AM)
digi give 3 times divvy per annum ~ can achieve 7-8% divvy.

called it a divvy counter, maybe?
*
I remembered Digi said they want to give >100% if its profit few days ago, if not mistaken.

QUOTE(verbatim @ Feb 10 2010, 11:14 AM)
Is it true that BNM will impose something Reits in coming months??
*
Don't heard any of it. But BNM signalled don't expect low interest rate environment will stay long.

But I don't view it can be upped a lot though, max go to 2.5% only for near term or this year.

Interest rate up, means interest payment for refinancing for reit is up also. So it is a negative factor for reit.
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 10 2010, 11:22 AM)
I got a feeling that  ah lim would push Genting to a high price and let Reosrt World price stays where it is.

Then he would take Resort World into private by exchanging with Genting shares.

Not in  near term, bcos Genting share price is still low  now.
*
Actually with high amount of cash, Resort or Genting Malaysia is a good target for privatisation.

GentingM's short term investment (1.7b) + cash (2.7b) already reach 4.5 billion

While it has 5.7 b outstanding shares, means if offer Rm3.00 it needs roughly 17b. With Genting already hold around 50%, means 8.5b needed only for privatisation. Pay 8.5b which they can access 4.5 billion seems very attractive deal, not to mention GenM generates huge cashflow each year.


cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Feb 10 2010, 01:49 PM)
Anyone got XDL research paper? I wonder how research paper gonna say about XDL  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif
Good for you! Get out just in time. Me always slow motion one...  doh.gif  cry.gif

Added on February 10, 2010, 1:51 pmFor XDL case, PE ratio no longer works...
Now is the trust that makes investor/traders angry... vmad.gif
*
Yup, for red chips issue,
because if there is no trust, then whatever figure, EPS, PER is meaningless, as investors don't know those figure is trustable or not, due to some issues happened in Sg.

Until company give real hard cash (dividend) consistently from its profit made, only can slowly gain trust on it.

It is about trust, not PER or whatever figure on the book.
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(Zack Styler @ Feb 10 2010, 03:26 PM)
Just talked to my remisier, he mentioned stocks to accumulate for long term are Maybank, Dialog and SAAG..

Any comments guys?  biggrin.gif
*
No comment but can read some in SAAG topic http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1021447/+1340

More and more shares being issued due to bond exchange.. sweat.gif

Your remisier actually recommend SAAG? blink.gif
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Feb 10 2010, 03:33 PM)
When XDL was going for listing,Camel bank was doing it and in the internal briefing,the indicative IPO price was around 1.4x.Somehow the IPO was delayed for reasons unknown to us.

After a few months,the IPO went ahead with OSK appointed as the main managing agent,though Camel bank was still the  Advisor.But the IPO price was down to 50 sen IIRC.

This big difference in IPO price was a big surprise to many of us ,and I have been advising my clients and also forumers here to avoid red chips  since day one.

Unfortunately, my suspicion is coming true.looks like its a real pirate ship.

As for the other red chips listed here,I have no idea whats going on.

My two sens,please judge your own.
*
My gut feeling is that (I am not good and might be wrong),
1. I feel not quite right when all red chips come in all are shoe manufacturers, posted before, why all shoe coming to Malaysia? Malaysian like to buy shoe? biggrin.gif Joking only.

2. Why target KLSE? There are lot of bourses with more liquidity and more exciting bourses to list, why Malaysia?

3. PER is extremely low for IPO, as normally company list IPO around 8-12x PER. IPO at 3x PER is seems too cheap. Company willing to accept so low valuation for listing? When something being sold at so low price, why investment banks didn't raise any question on it?




cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 10 2010, 05:11 PM)
i dunno how they can fix the imbalance in European Union....

The main 2 groups:

Rich Countries that are getting out of recession, ready for rate hike or inflation will strike:
Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium..

Countries that are not doing so well, rate hike will kill their still weak economy:
Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy..

*
This issue had been mentioned since the first day Euro being formed, this is disadvantage of having single currency. For eg, if Germany inflation is problematic, so need to raise interest rate, but at the other side countries, economy is so poor with high unemployment, then how to tackle this situation? There is no easy solution for this kind of problem.
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Feb 10 2010, 05:21 PM)
There could be a two-tier Europe or a total collapse of the Euro IMHO.
*
I don't think so, EU will fight hard for singularity, if not, Euro becomes meaningless and could fall apart, two-tier is a bad starting point which could lead to decoupling.
cherroy
post Feb 10 2010, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(mmusang @ Feb 10 2010, 06:07 PM)
all packaging companies going up.
after oldtown, there is one china packaging companies will be list..
probably a good counter who have 8.2% of market share
*
Market has reserved view on red chips...




cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Feb 11 2010, 08:34 AM)
JCY will reduce size of IPO.

Added on February 11, 2010, 8:36 amBy Joyce Koh and Soraya Permatasari
    Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- JCY International Bhd.’s owner reduced the size of an initial public offering of the Malaysian supplier of components for Western Digital Corp., a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.
    YKY Investments Ltd. sold about 383 million JCY shares to institutional investors, 19 percent less than it had initially planned to sell, the person said, declining to be identified.
*
Woot, bad for IPO...

Could be low subscription as well.
cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 11 2010, 11:11 AM)
lol that's a 3D photo.

*
Photo? Should call graphic ler.

Since it is a listing company, they should have a investor relationship section for publishing the annual report column one.


cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(ashiezai @ Feb 11 2010, 12:02 PM)
it's ISO certified (i know it;s no big deal, but at least it won't disappear overnight)

*
ISO just means proper procedure in manfacturing or way to do, nothing to do with product quality or company. In fact, almost every company can get ISO certified, if you are willing to spend some effort to do it and get to certified.
I involved before in ISO issue, so know a little bit.
cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(jasonkwk @ Feb 11 2010, 12:59 PM)
in your opinion, all these ISO proper procedure thing can improve bottomline and earning?
*
Actually don't have direct relationship. ISO can slow down the productivity if being done inefficiently.

QUOTE(Darren @ Feb 11 2010, 01:11 PM)
Most malaysian companies can only get ISO for their management but unable to get one for their manufacturing side. The requirement is crazy.
*
Manufacturing required lot of process and flow, it can be very tedious and affect productivity. Imagine engineers and technician need to do every report and documentation an every single inspection and rectification they do, (some may very minor issue only). The technician might be more busy writing report and prepare documentation as compared to the time spent for fixing.

But proper documentation is very essential for those crucial part or industry. But for the like just furniture fixing, or ordinary non-important product or minor one could be very tedious.
So this may vary from industry to industry.

For more simple eg. You go to car manufacture service centre to service your car vs oridnary Ah Beng workmanshop car repairing.

Service centre with proper documentation with ISO standard procedure could take half an hour just to register your car, type in details, search and review service record etc, blar blar then confirm with you for servicing your car (just changing engine oil and oil filter), which you might only get it done totally after more than 1 hour+.

Go to Ah Beng service shop, tell him want to change engine oil and oil filter, see your service booklet record (or majority none), then straight away draining your engine, flush, then fill up new engine oil, everything done less than half hour)


QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Feb 11 2010, 01:22 PM)
biggrin.gif ISO is simple, do what you write, write what you do...........
Just act as per your documented precudure, easy
It only quality on your process, wont quality on your product
I doing ISO now

*
Yup, but still a lot of people misunderstand the got ISO one, must got quality on their product. In actual fact, no direct relationship.


cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(zWinceZz @ Feb 11 2010, 03:16 PM)
so many penang people from lowyat...

wanna meet up for Penang Lowyat Stock Exchange Group Gathering or not?
*
Which type of "gathering"?

"Huat Chai gathering"? brows.gif laugh.gif


cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Feb 11 2010, 04:19 PM)
Anyone MAS-OR @ 0.145? My hands darn itchy...Feel like wanna push BUY button...then CONFIRM BUY.... doh.gif
*
The high volume on MAS-OR should be taking into consideration.

High volume OR means right holders don't want to exercise the right issue.

Anyone with MAS in hand currently should dispose MAS and buying in MAS-OR, instant can make some money.
cherroy
post Feb 11 2010, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Feb 11 2010, 04:31 PM)
can you elaborate more ala simulation through calculation of current pricing?
*
QUOTE(mopster @ Feb 11 2010, 04:41 PM)
ehh where can i read about OR ?? is it the same as company issued call warrant ?
u guys are buying to trade or convert ? i tot to convert u need to have the same amount of mothershare ? 1:1 ?

RCETRAP sink on good result... working as intended... can buy when lower.. coz i think they will goreng to 70cents again in coming 1 or 2 months.. laugh.gif 
something like KFIMA also...
*
OR- is just a right issue right.

You have MAS-OR then you can buy MAS at Rm1.60.

So now MAS is 1.92. If one has MAS currently, and want to hold it one and also don't want to sell or buy or increase/decrease stake of it.
Then it is advisable to dispose MAS at Rm1.92 then buy and use the OR to buy MAS. As your cost for the right issue OR (0.14 + 1.60) = 1.74 only. So you dispose MAS can get 1.92, you have extra or 'earn' 0.18 out of it.

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