well.. GDP formula is as follow:
GDP = private expenditure + gross investment + public spending
+ export - import
when you put stimulus to spend money, you increase public spending, hence GDP will be up. when you increase house price and lower BLR, more people buy expensive house, thus gross investment increase. Sort of non-productive gain and based on debt, like US.
I do hope the house price will be back to its reasonable value after the dip. GDP does not mean anything if buying a house for own stay also hard.
Added on January 24, 2010, 1:40 pmAnd I have some thought just now about end of 2008 recession:
During that time, all of us are very worrying about petrol price, and even government has announced that petrol price will stay high.
Newspaper has announced that high petrol price era has come.
And we have prepared for that and feel the life is difficult.
What happens after that? the recession turned the petrol price to its 30%.
Now today: we see that property prices are increasing every month. Some people said that if you don't buy now, you might not be able to buy a few years later. We feel stressed and try to accept the fact.
But, ... do you really think property price will keep on increasing to sky?
From our experience, we know that whenever the price hike and people feel extremely stressed in their daily life.. that is time to warn about the recession.
What say you?
This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jan 24 2010, 01:40 PM
KLSE Stock Performance the year ahead ?, Discussion on Equities Outlook, Strategy
Jan 24 2010, 01:26 PM
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