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 KLSE Stock Performance the year ahead ?, Discussion on Equities Outlook, Strategy

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TSAiSeh
post Jan 22 2010, 10:37 AM, updated 16y ago

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Wang Habis di PAKAI ! huh.gif

Ada nampak apa apa perkembangan selanjut ini dari STIMULUS RM67bil yang sudah habis disbursment ? hmm.gif

Wang Habis, tiada lagi untuk perkembangan Ekonomi Negara, cam mana lah Saham agaknya nak naik ? rclxub.gif




Friday January 22, 2010
DPM: RM67bil disbursed from stimulus package
By STEPHEN THEN


stephenthen@thestar.com.my

MIRI: All the RM67bil from the stimulus package allocated by the Government had been channelled for its intended purpose, said Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

A major portion of the money was for infrastructure projects and there had been clear indications that they had succeeded in spurring the economy, he said.

Speaking at a luncheon organised by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry here, he said there had been a slower decline in the rate of gross domestic product because of the injection of Federal funds.

“The first and second quarter of 2009 saw a downturn of 4% in GDP. By the end of 2009, the rate of decline dropped to only 1.2%. If we had not allocated the RM67bil, the country would have witnessed a massive closure of businesses and increase in unemployment.

“We had averted a major downslide because of the stimulus packages,” he said. The country’s growth rate was projected at about 4% to 5% this year, he said.

Muhyiddin, who is on a two-day working visit to Miri and Bintulu, said it was time to focus on generating greater income and development now that the economic situation had stabilised.

He cited manufacturing, production of electrical and electronic goods, production of palm oil and rubber, and oil and gas as the main sectors that could lead to better level of incomes this year.

“China has increased its import of these products from Malaysia and this is a very good development.’’

Muhyiddin, however, said the Government was still concerned that most Malaysians were trapped in the middle income category.

The South Koreans, he said, had overtaken Malaysians although they were once lagging behind.

“These Koreans used to come to Malaysia to study our way of doing business. Now, they have surged past us and are four times ahead of us. What happened to Malaysians?’’

The Government, he said, was now in the final stages of preparing a new economic model that was aimed at creating a high income status for Malaysia.


Added on January 22, 2010, 3:04 pmWritten by ThMalaysian equities ‘fairly valued’, says Public Mutual
The Edge Financial Daily
Friday, 22 January 2010 11:34

KUALA LUMPUR: Although valuations in the local stock market look stretched, builders and exporters may shine, helped by a recovering economy at home and abroad, said fund manager Public Mutual Bhd. Malaysia’s biggest private fund management firm, with RM34.3 billion in assets under management, is bullish about equities in China, Australia and Singapore, said CEO Yeoh Kim Hong.

“In terms of valuations, the local market is fairly valued,” she said. Malaysia was one of the worst-performing stock markets in Asia last year, ranked fourth from the bottom. Malaysia’s benchmark share index is trading near its 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, Yeoh said in an email interview.

Public Equity Fund, which invested mainly in Malaysian stocks, outperformed the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index over the past 12 months, with a total return of 59.4%, compared to the index’s 48.4% return during the same period, data on Public Mutual’s website showed.

For 2010, investment themes are expected to be centred around the country’s economic performance, said Yeoh. “Investment themes in Malaysia include beneficiaries of the pick-up in construction activities, resources stocks as a hedge against inflation and selected export-driven stocks on the back of a recovery in global demand,” said Yeoh.

Trade-dependent Malaysia may see its gross domestic product (GDP) expand by 5% in 2010 after shrinking by an estimated 3% in 2009, a Reuters poll of 15 economists showed this month. Public Mutual holds 30 million shares in palm oil exporter IOI Corp Bhd, Thomson Reuters data showed. It also owns 8.6 million shares in IJM Corp Bhd, the country’s largest construction company by assets.

Elsewhere in Asia, Yeoh said her firm likes China, Australia and Singapore.

“Despite the Chinese government’s recent tightening measures to slow credit growth, we are optimistic about the long-term prospects for Chinese stocks,” said Yeoh.

“We are also positive about the outlook for Australia and Singapore which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated global economic recovery,” she said.

In terms of sectors, Public Mutual prefers consumer, infrastructure and natural resources stocks in the region, she said. Yeoh said her firm will be selective in investing in Asia’s telecommunication sector, which had underperformed in emerging as well as developed markets in the past year.
“Broadly, the growth prospects for telecommunication companies are constrained as penetration rates are generally high in most major markets,” she said. “Telecommunication stocks tend to be perceived as yield plays and laggards during an economic recovery,” she added. Public Mutual has about 60 million shares in Malaysia’s Axiata Group Bhd, which owns telecommunication assets in many fast-growing markets such as Sri Lanka, Indonesia and India. The fund manager also owns 5.96 million shares in DiGi.Com Bhd, the smallest mobile provider in Malaysia.

— Reuters This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, January 22, 2010.



This post has been edited by AiSeh: Jan 22 2010, 03:04 PM
alenac
post Jan 22 2010, 06:28 PM

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hahahaha tongue.gif tongue.gif Takde climax pun stumulus ape ni? Habis mani jer! drool.gif

This post has been edited by alenac: Jan 22 2010, 06:28 PM
danmooncake
post Jan 23 2010, 10:35 PM

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All those billions of ringgits well spent? Yeah, right. More like right into the same cronies hands of the same political parties.

High income? Where to get high income if the govt continues on the policy of low wages, more cheap imported labor and poor labor union? Where to get high income where we don't even have a decent min. wage system?

Let's face the truth. IMO, this govt is completely clueless how they should stimulate sustainable growth.
All these spending are nothing but a farce and trickery and meant to brush off the middle class who are the ones suffering.



amco
post Jan 24 2010, 12:56 PM

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why my pocket dont feel good at all? in fact, goods are getting more expensive thanks to exccessive high car price, petrol, reducing subsidize and increasing taxes (GST coming). another FEEl GOOD factors and lips service?
audi8
post Jan 24 2010, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(amco @ Jan 24 2010, 01:56 PM)
why my pocket dont feel good at all? in fact, goods are getting more expensive thanks to exccessive high car price, petrol, reducing subsidize and increasing taxes (GST coming). another FEEl GOOD factors and lips service?
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sad everything is getting more expensive plus upcoming gst, susah for rakyat
epalbee3
post Jan 24 2010, 01:26 PM

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well.. GDP formula is as follow:

GDP = private expenditure + gross investment + public spending
+ export - import

when you put stimulus to spend money, you increase public spending, hence GDP will be up. when you increase house price and lower BLR, more people buy expensive house, thus gross investment increase. Sort of non-productive gain and based on debt, like US.

I do hope the house price will be back to its reasonable value after the dip. GDP does not mean anything if buying a house for own stay also hard.


Added on January 24, 2010, 1:40 pmAnd I have some thought just now about end of 2008 recession:

During that time, all of us are very worrying about petrol price, and even government has announced that petrol price will stay high.
Newspaper has announced that high petrol price era has come.
And we have prepared for that and feel the life is difficult.

What happens after that? the recession turned the petrol price to its 30%.

Now today: we see that property prices are increasing every month. Some people said that if you don't buy now, you might not be able to buy a few years later. We feel stressed and try to accept the fact.

But, ... do you really think property price will keep on increasing to sky?

From our experience, we know that whenever the price hike and people feel extremely stressed in their daily life.. that is time to warn about the recession.

What say you?



This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jan 24 2010, 01:40 PM
danmooncake
post Jan 24 2010, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 24 2010, 01:26 PM)

I do hope the house price will be back to its reasonable value after the dip. GDP does not mean anything if buying a house for own stay also hard.

But, ... do you really think property price will keep on increasing to sky?
*
What do you mean reasonable level? I believe the lows have been past already and it
will continue to go up as the economy recovers and as long as the govt keep the interest rate low.

People are pouring back into real estate investment because current FD rate sucks!





epalbee3
post Jan 24 2010, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 24 2010, 11:00 PM)
What do you mean reasonable level? I believe the lows have been past already and it
will continue to go up as the economy recovers and as long as the govt keep the interest rate low.

People are pouring back into real estate investment because current FD rate sucks!
*
well.. most new landed areas in KL cost more than RM550k.

Perhaps other places are better. I have observed two places.

The house price had been doubled since 2004 in 5 years time. Previously was 250k. Now 550k.





 

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