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 Public Mutual v2, PB/Public series

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sulifeisgreat
post Jan 12 2011, 10:04 PM

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didn't the sophisticated trend following proprietary says up, means up laugh.gif
the system sample looks like technical analysis with bb, adx, guppy, macd, rsi & etc rojak inside hmm.gif
here is for fun reading BUT mad.gif I not ejen & get zero benefit out of it
the question to ask, is where is ur frenly ejen when u need them? when they're needed, they go to the perigi izit? doh.gif

Indonesia, India Lead Heavy Sell-Off, Inflation Fears Blamed

Investors fear central banks will have to raise rates to slow economies
More weakness in India and Indonesia led a global sell-off Monday on worries that they will raise interest rates to control inflation.
India’s central bank is expected to raise rates sooner than anticipated to stave off food inflation. An Indonesian central bank authority said
Monday that it’s ready to hike rates if food and oil prices keep rising.

“[This] is a microcosm of the headwinds facing emerging markets looking forward,”Alan Zafran, partner at Menlo Park, Calif.-based Luminous Capital, wrote in an e-mail. “The underlying economic growth outlook for these countries remains solid,” he added. “But should inflation get out of control, these countries’ central banks will be forced to impose restrictive monetary policies that will hamper the economic growth being forecast.”
India’s GDP grew9.7% in 2010 and is seen growing 8.4%in 2011, according to the International Monetary Fund. Indonesia’s economy is estimated
to have grown 5.9% in 2010 and is projected to expand 6.1% in 2011, according to Moody’s Economy.

Wisdom Tree India Earnings EPI gapped down 2.4% and iPath MSCI India Index ETN INP gapped down 3% to six-week lows. Asia’s 2010 performance leader, Market Vectors Indonesia Index IDX, gapped down 5% in more than 1 1/2 times average volume, booking its largest one-day drop in seven months. Emerging markets overall, which outpaced the U.S. since the March 2009 bottom, have been underperforming the U.S. since November. They’ve failed to join U.S. indexes in making new highs in the new year.

“That’s usually a signal that something unpleasant is likely to happen to global equity markets because these markets should be the ones leading the way up and they aren’t,” said Vinny Catalano, president of Blue Marble Research. Although the bull market hasn’t signaled that it’s over, emerging
markets are likely to correct more and investors should wait until the correction ends, Catalano says. EPI closed just above its 200-day average. And INP closed right on that key line. They’ve corrected 14% from their 52-week highs, so they’re not in a confirmed bear market, which by definition is a 20% drop from a 52-week high. The biggest downside moves often happen below the 200-day line. When INP closed below its 200-day
in February of 2008, it fell 68%. It took 15 months for it to recover that line. EPI and INP both returned2 0% in 2010, outdoing the benchmark
MSCI Emerging Markets index’s 15% gain.

On a valuation basis, India’s market is expensive relative to the rest of Asia. It’s trading at nearly 19 times 2010 earnings and 15.3 times 2011 earnings, according to Credit Suisse. By contrast Asia Pacific is trading at 15 times 2010 earnings and13.3 times 2011 earnings. India is expected to grow earnings by 24% in 2010 and 22% in 2011, while Asia overall grows earnings by 47% and 14% during those periods. Credit Suisse analysts recommend underweighting the country because there was too much foreign buying in 2010. “(India’s) valuations are very high,” Carl Delfeld, founder of iGlobalStrategist.com, wrote in an e-mail. “And despite (its) raising interest rates six times in 2010, its central bank is behind the inflation
curve and they will have to keep raising rates.”

IDX has corrected 13% from its 52-week high. It closed Monday just above its 200-day moving average, its lowest price in five months. It’s formed a bearish head-and shoulders or rounded-topchart pattern, a shape that many investors use as a sell signal. IDX outpaced all major Asian markets
in 2010, returning 40%.Indonesia’s market is also trading at a slight premium compared to the region. It’s trading at 16.4 times 2010 earnings and 13.5 times 2011 earnings, according to Credit Suisse. It’s projected to grow earnings by 20% in 2010 and 21% in 2011.


sulifeisgreat
post Jan 13 2011, 12:12 AM

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1,121 posts

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From: transiting asteroid


I do agree tat trend following is not forecasting, coz up, really means up. nothing to forecast, coz it just means up shakehead.gif
its just tat sole proprietary secretive software to predict trend keeps nagging me laugh.gif
if its so good, y not trade futures? ut is not famous for making quick big bugs hmm.gif
no position in either markets but someone asked y drop, so just took the article, interpretation depends on each investor skill & knowledge


QUOTE(howszat @ Jan 12 2011, 10:40 PM)
But trend following is not forecasting though. If it's up, it means up... smile.gif

However, I'm reasonably confident that the India/Indonesia markets are not in trouble, yet. Reason being - inflation is a sign of a growing economy. From stock market point of view, raising interest rates is bad because it slows down the growth - but the keyword still remains growth.


Added on January 12, 2011, 11:01 pmAnd has the Jensen thing actually done anything useful (profitable) for you?, or is it just something you found on wiki?
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sulifeisgreat
post Apr 2 2011, 03:30 PM

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Senior Member
1,121 posts

Joined: Oct 2009
From: transiting asteroid


never knew pm were so deceiving laugh.gif to get things done right, alwiz do it yourself brows.gif

QUOTE(gark @ Apr 2 2011, 02:36 PM)
You are very wrong, capital gains in Malaysia is tax free, but dividend are taxed. If you sell the unit trust you do not need to pay tax, but if it is declared as dividend then it is taxed. Except for ASNB dividends which is also tax free.  tongue.gif

In Singapore capital gains and dividend is also tax free.  icon_idea.gif


Added on April 2, 2011, 2:42 pm

There are many investment out there which are deceiving, but they they do it in a legal way of wording it, complaining to SC will not yield results. For example FD campaigns promoting 2.88%, 3.88% and 4.88% interest rate, but it is actually for one month only. The advert don't tell you, until you go to the details and sign the agreement, when you re-calcuate you find there is a minor difference only. Or certain savings insurance which advertise 12% cash back, then if you actually calculate it over the years, you get less than FD. It is the same with the UT industry, only it is hidden in the financial report. If you can't/won't/don't read the financial details  and do your due dilligence you will be 'decieved'. These products do prey on those who have low financial knowledge.  rclxms.gif

FYI i am not trying to diss PM, I am holding quite a large sum in PM funds as well (six figures worth), but investors need to be educated lest they fall to marketing gimmicks and tricks.  All these applies to most of the UT sold in Malaysia laugh.gif


Added on April 2, 2011, 2:48 pm

Yes, the distribution need to be accounted and not only the NAV. Basically I have all of the info in excel, so each time after distribution and reinvestment I have to go and update the holdings. Waste of time....  rolleyes.gif

Be careful when using the PM charts as I have found out, they are based on NAV to NAV charts and not on Bid to NAV charts. So the initial 5.5% you pay is not reflected in the charts and over time the 5.5% fees will be compounded and show a big difference. Anyway i do occasionally use them for quick info but the results in my excel sheet shows the actual value.  sweat.gif
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