I basically avoid doing any forecast, for most of us, trend following is good enough to capture the major move. That way I dont have to guess which way the market is heading.

Attached is a recent market status update I sent to my clients, basically showing how the trend of indices around the world are in a glance. Trend analysis is done on a regular basis with proprietory methodology (not open to discussion) although general principles are outlined in my blog.

Note: You may need to rotate the view of the pdf clockwise in case it doesn't appear right.

Yeah, I'm thinking about the same thing. I bought some PB smallcap fund when it was 78 cents, now already 93 cents (I think). Thinking of switching to something safer..... not really sure what to do.....