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 Stock Market V41, OCTOBEAR vs OCTOBULL - Who's d winner?

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cherroy
post Oct 3 2009, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Oct 3 2009, 12:45 AM)
This is the biggest worry - no doubt.
But - if you're treating a patient with multiple injuries, your first job is to keep him alive and breathing. Then get him walking and eating properly.....

The 100meters race or training him for the marathon can come later.

The toxic debts and derivatives that created this whole mess are going to take years to get rid of....
As investors, we have to react to circumstances as we find them...but I agree with you -  consumer demand the recovery will be very fragile... hmm.gif
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Soon or later, consumers will recover, it is matter of time.

But stock market could go ahead too far by itself by expecting a steep V-shape recovery.

Personally view, recession will go away, but recovery process and return to normal health of growth take time. Just like you said, the patient has been kept alive, need time for nursing, we can't expect the patient to go for 100m race next month.

It could take 1-3 years time before everything passed.

I don't believe after 1st year of anniversary of financial crisis, we are talking like nothing happen and bull charging non-stop.

From March low to now of stock price surge or bull run, I still view it is a correction of panic selling and undershooting of the market, which after things calm down, stock market react to what its real fundamental should be, that's why we see some stocks that shouldn't beaten down surge 50% or more as previously panic and pesimisticsm is overly done or excessive, while for some stocks, they are not recovering as they are the one really hit by the crisis. So it is a selection or elimation process.
David_Brent
post Oct 3 2009, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 3 2009, 12:53 AM)
Soon or later, consumers will recover, it is matter of time.

But stock market could go ahead too far by itself by expecting a steep V-shape recovery.

Personally view, recession will go away, but recovery process and return to normal health of growth take time. Just like you said, the patient has been kept alive, need time for nursing, we can't expect the patient to go for 100m race next month.

It could take 1-3 years time before everything passed.

I don't believe after 1st year of anniversary of financial crisis, we are talking like nothing happen and bull charging non-stop.

From March low to now of stock price surge or bull run, I still view it is a correction of panic selling and undershooting of the market, which after things calm down, stock market react to what its real fundamental should be, that's why we see some stocks that shouldn't beaten down surge 50% or more as previously panic and pesimisticsm is overly done or excessive, while for some stocks, they are not recovering as they are the one really hit by the crisis. So it is a selection or elimation process.
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Very true....there are lots of exceptions but quite a lot of FBM stocks are not currently reflecting their 'true' value IMHO.... I think it's a matter of time: 2-3 years at least as you say..... hmm.gif
protonw
post Oct 3 2009, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Oct 3 2009, 12:47 AM)
depends. from what i know is:
if your's a direct cds account then toto will mail agm papers/dividend directly to u.. and the proxy form is there too..
but if your account is a nominee account then im not sure what to do... maybe like other forumer said, u gotta go to maybank and get the form, etc..
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Direct account, registrar will post direct to you with proxy form in the annual reports or whatever....

For Nominee account, (I deal with Maybank), I just e-mail them and they will lodge my attendance to the registrar and forward me via e-mail a proxy form. On AGM registration day, just tell them you are a proxy of which bank/company and produce your IC. (some company may need to show proxy form but the last 3 AGM I went did not need it at all) tongue.gif

This post has been edited by protonw: Oct 3 2009, 12:49 PM
DanielW
post Oct 3 2009, 05:40 PM

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A correction of the market is always healthy. I missed some good stocks to buy earlier.
motolola
post Oct 3 2009, 06:20 PM

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naw warries daniel.. more chances will come up i'm sure
my uncle told me the shares he bought are going to be his inheritance to his kids. he never took profit even if they rose in value. he let me take a look at his unrealised profit, so many zeros man~! sure brings new meanin to the word LONG for me laugh.gif laugh.gif
ohzmygod
post Oct 3 2009, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Oct 3 2009, 12:44 PM)
Direct account, registrar will post direct to you with proxy form in the annual reports or whatever....

For Nominee account, (I deal with Maybank),  I just e-mail them and they will lodge my attendance to the registrar and forward me via e-mail a proxy form.  On AGM registration day, just tell them you are a proxy of which bank/company and produce your IC. (some company may need to show proxy form but the last 3 AGM I went did not need it at all) tongue.gif
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hmmm.. thanks
what the benefits / advantages of attending AGM?
DanielW
post Oct 3 2009, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(motolola @ Oct 3 2009, 06:20 PM)
naw warries daniel.. more chances will come up i'm sure
my uncle told me the shares he bought are going to be his inheritance to his kids. he never took profit even if they rose in value. he let me take a look at his unrealised profit, so many zeros man~! sure brings new meanin to the word LONG for me laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Yah, I agree with u. I share the similar thoughts as your uncle..hehe..Regarding not selling shares, I have a slightly different approach. Depending on what shares. Some shares which resembles the Market Efficiency Theory, I will just hold it. But some shares which follows the Market Inefficiency Theory, I hold it until its overvalued, then sell it off and wait for the share price to become undervalued again and buy it again. But this strategies only works for fundamentally good companies though..Doesn't work for speculative stocks or highly volatile companies.
skylands
post Oct 3 2009, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(ohzmygod @ Oct 3 2009, 10:36 PM)
hmmm.. thanks
what the benefits / advantages of attending AGM?
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free door gift rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
n0v1ce
post Oct 4 2009, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(motolola @ Oct 3 2009, 06:20 PM)
naw warries daniel.. more chances will come up i'm sure
my uncle told me the shares he bought are going to be his inheritance to his kids. he never took profit even if they rose in value. he let me take a look at his unrealised profit, so many zeros man~! sure brings new meanin to the word LONG for me laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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Meant that he is practising buy & hold? Many opportunity loss I would say but maybe he is too rich to bother that
okw0809
post Oct 4 2009, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(n0v1ce @ Oct 4 2009, 09:38 AM)
Meant that he is practising buy & hold?  Many opportunity loss I would say but maybe he is too rich to bother that
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Warren Buffet's is long term player. He does not buy and sell for short profit.
If buy and hold is wrong, he would not be 2nd richest man in the world.
If we say Motolola's uncle misses many opportunity might not be appropriate too.

Of course there are many factors too. I would not say n0v1ce is incorrect.
It just depends on individual's portfolio and background. blush.gif blush.gif

n0v1ce
post Oct 4 2009, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(okw0809 @ Oct 4 2009, 11:08 AM)
Warren Buffet's is long term player. He does not buy and sell for short profit.
If buy and hold is wrong, he would not be 2nd richest man in the world.
If we say Motolola's uncle misses many opportunity might not be appropriate too.

Of course there are many factors too. I would not say n0v1ce is incorrect.
It just depends on individual's portfolio and background.  blush.gif  blush.gif
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Thank you for the advice notworthy.gif Anyhow, the legend bought and hold those undervalued + sound management; what if in the midst of investing in one company, we found that something is wrong with the management, do we need to pull unsure.gif
protonw
post Oct 4 2009, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(ohzmygod @ Oct 3 2009, 10:36 PM)
hmmm.. thanks
what the benefits / advantages of attending AGM?
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For nothing to do shareholders to pass time, gathering with friends, collect free doorgift or free lunch.

For shareholders to curse, condemn and scold directors of the company when it made losses. laugh.gif

For company to pass resolutions as per requirements of companies Act.

tongue.gif





rosdi1
post Oct 4 2009, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(skylands @ Oct 3 2009, 11:51 PM)
hmmm.. thanks
what the benefits / advantages of attending AGM?

free door gift  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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Other than the door gift and free drink...
you can also ask them questions that usually don't get much attention.
For example I like to ask Axiata this question.

QUOTE
What was the real reason why Celcom service gone yoyo for 3 days during the Hari Raya
It it due to poor management who had allowed all their technical staff to go on a holiday at the same time and what action
had management taken to avoid this from reocuring. How much losses did Celcom incurred for that 3 days


This type of question will only be answered during the AGM.

This post has been edited by rosdi1: Oct 4 2009, 01:51 PM
TSzamans98
post Oct 4 2009, 02:11 PM

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guys, appreciate if anyone have a latest write-up by any research house on AXREIT. Haven't seen one lately.

Upload it here.

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mazda626
post Oct 4 2009, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(n0v1ce @ Oct 4 2009, 11:30 AM)
Thank you for the advice notworthy.gif  Anyhow, the legend bought and hold those undervalued + sound management; what if in the midst of investing in one company, we found that something is wrong with the management, do we need to pull unsure.gif
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Sell lor....my 2 cent tot... brows.gif
claricecmw
post Oct 4 2009, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(rosdi1 @ Oct 4 2009, 01:46 PM)
Other than the door gift and free drink...
you can also ask them questions that usually don't get much attention.
For example I like to ask Axiata this question.

Free drink me not bothered yawn.gif ... but if Free ALCOHOL drool.gif drool.gif .... me SURE attend... rclxms.gif
Some 'alcohol' gives me some Dutch courage to ask bold (but relevant) questions rather than just keeping quiet tongue.gif






This post has been edited by claricecmw: Oct 4 2009, 08:18 PM
debbieyss
post Oct 4 2009, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(motolola @ Oct 3 2009, 06:20 PM)
naw warries daniel.. more chances will come up i'm sure
my uncle told me the shares he bought are going to be his inheritance to his kids. he never took profit even if they rose in value. he let me take a look at his unrealised profit, so many zeros man~! sure brings new meanin to the word LONG for me laugh.gif  laugh.gif
*
why does your uncle not getting profit from his shares?
He didn't buy at low price during beginning of this year?
umikosan
post Oct 4 2009, 10:10 PM

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when a winner said what is wrong is right and a loser said what is right is wrong.

In Stock market there are no right and wrong just timing and abit of luck.
debbieyss
post Oct 4 2009, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(umikosan @ Oct 4 2009, 10:10 PM)
when a winner said what is wrong is right and a loser said what is right is wrong.

In Stock market there are no right and wrong just timing and abit of luck.
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This is so true.
claricecmw
post Oct 4 2009, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 4 2009, 09:16 PM)
why does your uncle not getting profit from his shares?
He didn't buy at low price during beginning of this year?
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Debbie doh.gif
What he is trying to convey is that his uncle is making lotsa unrealized gain flex.gif
The "zeros" meant maybe gains of Thousands or Hundreds of Thousands or Millions! rclxms.gif

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