QUOTE(David_Brent @ Oct 3 2009, 12:45 AM)
This is the biggest worry - no doubt.
But - if you're treating a patient with multiple injuries, your first job is to keep him alive and breathing. Then get him walking and eating properly.....
The 100meters race or training him for the marathon can come later.
The toxic debts and derivatives that created this whole mess are going to take years to get rid of....
As investors, we have to react to circumstances as we find them...but I agree with you - consumer demand the recovery will be very fragile...
Soon or later, consumers will recover, it is matter of time.But - if you're treating a patient with multiple injuries, your first job is to keep him alive and breathing. Then get him walking and eating properly.....
The 100meters race or training him for the marathon can come later.
The toxic debts and derivatives that created this whole mess are going to take years to get rid of....
As investors, we have to react to circumstances as we find them...but I agree with you - consumer demand the recovery will be very fragile...
But stock market could go ahead too far by itself by expecting a steep V-shape recovery.
Personally view, recession will go away, but recovery process and return to normal health of growth take time. Just like you said, the patient has been kept alive, need time for nursing, we can't expect the patient to go for 100m race next month.
It could take 1-3 years time before everything passed.
I don't believe after 1st year of anniversary of financial crisis, we are talking like nothing happen and bull charging non-stop.
From March low to now of stock price surge or bull run, I still view it is a correction of panic selling and undershooting of the market, which after things calm down, stock market react to what its real fundamental should be, that's why we see some stocks that shouldn't beaten down surge 50% or more as previously panic and pesimisticsm is overly done or excessive, while for some stocks, they are not recovering as they are the one really hit by the crisis. So it is a selection or elimation process.
Oct 3 2009, 12:53 AM
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