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 How much is your net worth?, gauging your financial performance.

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prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 5 2011, 10:13 AM)
Are you satisfied with the country you are currently in ?

If you are, then what you have planned in the above is right - basically set aside funds to finance your children's studies in future. However, be very careful of how you nurture them, what mois said is very true. Many kids sent overseas without proper guidance end-up 'being in Disneyland', and they return to Msia with nothing except for a piece of paper.

If, on the other hand, you are not satisfied with the country that you are currently in, or yearn for adventures personally, then work towards a PR-status in the destination country, which will be your chosen country for yourself and your future descendants.

With a PR, the education costs will be lower, you will be staying near to your children whereby you will be able to monitor and nurture them continuously because you will be staying with them. And you can start a new life in your preferred country, follow the laws of that country and live with the people there.

Two possible paths to take !
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i know about this kids overseas thingy..........i was one........ biggrin.gif
AND in this time and age, i will not encourage them to come back for their careers........why spend
1 mil and come back for a 2.5k p month salary?

i am not satisfied with Msia....however its too late for me to migrate or staff like that at 49 year old
unless i am a crooked fella with lotsa $$$$$$ to be an investor migrant.
NO i canot afford that. So its too late for a PR- probably my greatest regret.
But nevertheless, i hope they can have a choice which i did not .................
prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 10:23 AM)
On this idea (migration then education), just to share what i read over the weekend on Australia (AU)migration:
1. To qualify for migration based on retired investor: minimum AUD750,000 investments in AU
+ need to proof monthly income (when in AU) of AUDx,xxx per month
2. Ppl migrating via such method are not entitled to "free"/gov sponsored health care
3. Processing fee for "consultants" RM40K to RM50K

Mind U, i was flipping through and EXACT details may be off a bit tongue.gif

There are of course other methods of migration to AU (too detailed to post here) - U can read it in this month's Personal Money magazine if i'm not mistaken on the source (read too many donkey stuff over the weekend since my little girl was away with her mother  cry.gif )
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Theres a cheaper way through Indonesia.......get on one of them tugboats and float across as boat people....
this is serious. Many are doing it..........
prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 10:33 AM)
er.. I'm assuming yr Q was targeted to me yar tongue.gif
Personally, my assumptions are as per the Excel zip file i uploaded for U:

Average inflation pa: 6%pa
Stocks & equities: 13%pa (assuming value investing & companies with strong fundamentals)
REITs / Properties: 8%pa + 2%pa to 3%pa capital growth (slightly lower than inflation) if hi-rise
Fixed Income: an average of FD (3%pa) + EPF (5%pa) + Bonds/Bond Funds (6%pa)
Alternative Investments: depends on the "alternatives" tongue.gif

Play with the Excel bro
I hope to at least achieve 80% of what U achieved, assets accumulation-wise, by the time i'm 49  notworthy.gif
May i ask - you're a working stiff (like me) OR a business person?
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Thanks mate....i am a stiff like ye........... biggrin.gif
My alternatives are giving me the best return in last 10 years like 30% pa tongue.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 10:42 AM)
Hehhe - seeking asylum? or just being one of the shadow folks in AU?
If seeking asylum - buta buta kena exported back to MY due to AU's & MY's inter-exchange understanding... die lar. Back to square oneĀ  cry.gif

In all seriousness though, like what bro Hansel said, AU's just one option. The other one i'm eyeing is Canada.
Both are countries with rich natural resources AND "below the radar" politics (mostly) with a balanced view in terms of politics - IMHO only ar, again pls put down them pins/voodoo dolls & guns tongue.gif
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Canadas too far, too cold............. but the employment is VERY good, especially in the tundra areas. biggrin.gif
General worker gets paid CAD100k per year..........................but VERY Cold...........................


Added on September 5, 2011, 10:50 am
QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 5 2011, 10:44 AM)
Okay, and agreed with your first paragraph.

You are not satisfied with Msia, then do something about it. Go somewhere else. Why stay here and whine and cry for a change in Gov't (if you think your dissatisfaction is because of the system) ? I'm sorry for saying this.

Don't be an investor migrant, that is not the only way. IN many developed countries today, if you wish to be an investor migrant, they will check you out too to see where your funds came from. There are laws, Anti-Money-Laundering Laws, etc, etc... it is not easy too, and it is the right thing for that gov't to do - satisfied !!!

To make a long story short - it's just this : are you able to keep earning your income without being physically in Msia ? If your answer to that question is a big YES, then there are many other legal and proper ways to migrate, and to contribute to another country.
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i am satisfied but i can live with it...........when i am 58 years old, they can do what they like.
BUT i want to let me children have a choice...............

Anti money my backside..sorry.....when they wanna investments, they close both eyes.......thats including aus.
i know........i have lotsa corrupted friends in aus....... nod.gif

i am an employed stiff like wong............cant have any other income.............

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 5 2011, 10:52 AM
prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE
(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 11:55 AM)
Holy crap bro - 30%pa average returns on "Alternatives" last 10 years?!! 
U gotta share yr methodologies and approach + of course what alternatives 



QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 5 2011, 11:05 AM)
Yes - that is amazing. 30% return average for the last 10 years, that would be 300% return gained on the initial investment.
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Actually i just updated the returns todate.......presently its 408.02% since i nvested in 2002
Thats about 40% p annum.average returns...............

Very simple ........no fund managers, nothing...............check out the gold thread.......... biggrin.gif


prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 11:43 AM)
Er.. bro, great returns but sorry to burst your bubble - its effective rate of growth/returns is about 16.91%+, not 40%pa on average.
You're right if based on simple calc is 40%+ by dividing total returns % by years lar biggrin.gif

Attached for your easy reference & usage is the calc - can also be used to ascertain for other growth/returns.
BTW, how in the world did U know 2002 was a good time to buy?
Gold was at it's lowest for like 20 to 30 years (2011 backwards lar tongue.gif)! 
notworthy.gif
U lumped sum (gungho) OR averaged into it within 1 year (seeing gold price go up a bit, buy a bit more kinda thing)?
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i know..thats why i use average returns per annum is 40%

What you are using is avrage compounded returns which is around 17%

i did 2 years of research on gold in 1999 before i jumped in, in 2002.
Its all based on the demise of USA and its USD.............................
Thanks to Greenspook and his easy credits.............. biggrin.gif

i bought BIG in 2002. Sold out all my HSBC shares and others and plunk them in.
i have been buying every year as my savings allow every year since.
Rode the sold off in 2008 from $936 to $681.......took my wifes savings and plunk in again ........... sweat.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 5 2011, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(monsta2011 @ Sep 5 2011, 01:27 PM)
Aiyo, (my techer once said) average return won't give a sensible value for overall return. Average returns will yield incorrect and artificially high results. blush.gif
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Aiyo.........Does it really matter whether its 40% simple average or 17% av compounded returns?
Its over TEN years..........thats the REAL deal.

Can you average that? not many can........ even Warren Buffet does 15% compounded......

LONG TERM ler..................

You can make 100% return in ONE MINUTE........... at GENTING tables........

BUT can you make 100% return pa over TEN years at Genting tables? Different issue...........my opinion
prophetjul
post Sep 6 2011, 07:43 AM

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QUOTE(chabalang @ Sep 5 2011, 10:38 PM)
Equities: 13% p.a. is DIFFICULT to achieve in the long-run for MOST investors.  Please bear in mind the 13% p.a. assumption is compounded over a long period (e.g. 20 years or more for retirement purposes) and for the whole equity portfolio, not just a few outstanding stocks (what's good in the past ten/twenty years may not be equally good in the future - very few companies can maintain outperformance for more than 20 years). Yes, some people may argue that their track record over the past ten or twenty years were more than that...all I can say these investors are GOOD (or lucky?)

I will give you an example why it is difficult to achieve 13% p.a..

Let's look at KLCI (a composite index of "leading" companies in M'sia) or now, known as FBM-KLCI (I am using Yahoo Finance data - unable to access full Bloomberg data on my current PC). KLCI excludes dividends (so you can add another 2% to 3% to compounded returns stated below)

(i) Based on the longest data available on Yahoo Finance, the KLCI data starts from Dec 1993 (which happened to at the tail end of the 'super bull' in 1990s)...KLCI was 1275 (Dec 1993) and 1447 (Aug 2011) -> annual compounded return of 0.72% p.a. over the 17.67 years. Of course, it is based on the last peak (or near the last historical peak) to current level.

(ii) Let's use 2000 to Aug 2011 - return. KLCI was 812 (Dec 1999) and 1447 (Aug 2011) -> annual compounded return of 5.08% p.a. over 2000-current.

(iii) Excellent market timer - bought at bottom in Aug 1998 to Aug 2011. KLCI was 303 (Aug 1998) and 1447 (Aug 2011)-> annual compounded return of 12.81% p.a. over the period. So, get a 13% p.a., you have to be really, really good.

For my own equity portfolio, I am assuming less than 10% (it's blended with heavier weighting on emerging/Asia markets). I consider myself to be quite a decent equity investor since I am semi-retired (still involved in finance/investment industry for the fun/thrill of it) and can live comfortably on the dividends from my equity portfolio.

Please bear in mind - even for well-run sovereign funds such as GIC (blended:equity, fixed income, etc) achieved only 7.2% over a 20-year period (7.6% for a composite portfolio of 70% global equity and 30% global bonds) http://www.gic.com.sg/data/pdf/GIC_Report_2011.pdf .

I just do not want fellow forumers to be using unrealistic returns for their retirement planning and get disappointed in the future. Nevertheless, I do like most of your replies and writings  thumbup.gif
In the article below, over 1985-2007, annual returns based on KLCI was 8.6% (+2% dividend yield = 10.6%).
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...87&sec=business
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chabalang

Very good points.

And i do agree with the difficulty in achieving 13% compounded returns over a long time.
10% is more achievable.
i think temasek did much better

17% since 1974....thats taking into account them getting burnt in US equities in 2009

http://www.temasekreview.com.sg/performanc...der_return.html


Added on September 6, 2011, 7:49 am
QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 5 2011, 10:56 PM)
Yup yup - agreed bro Chabalang. No one can argue with proper statistics and law of averages. Thus, my caveat is as always "personal expected/assumed average pa returns" tongue.gif

I dont buy much stocks but when i do, tend to be lucky (touch wood) maybe coz i wait for blood/suicides nowadays, or at least when i hear people swearing off stocks and not blindly "buy equities" based on Asset Allocation (which i do use just to allocate $) / re-balancing.
Paid lots of "tuition fees" to the market in my younger and dumber daze. Now still dumb but not THAT dumb  laugh.gif

BTW, 2008 crash - i put most of my $ into LPI (sold liao last month, hit my Trailing Stop Loss thus forced to realize profit) and PBBANK (still held now) + TWRREIT (still held now) (Dec 2008 till 1st qtr 2009). These stocks.. phew.. it's not just a matter of timing / value but also filter/selection of stocks/equity funds that's the kicker. Much much more than 12.81% or my own 13%pa (CAGR) target. Touch wood touch wood.  i was eyeing these 3 for awhile before end 2008, especially LPI & PBBANK. TWRREITs was something "new" since REITs were kind of "new" in MY market tongue.gif - lucky shot for that i guess.

1997 - 1998 double-dips, i was also lucky in the sense that i sold out before the currency crisis (stocks and equity funds) as there were plans for those $ and i didnt have that much $ to monkey around with. God works in mysterious ways  laugh.gif

Equity funds-wise, i'm lucky in the sense of buying with more $/EPF during "downs" due to value-averaging component of my programmatic approach
+ mid-long term trend-based buys after recovery and in new accumulation stage.
Thus, overall equity fund returns goes up (based the donkey XIRR formula in Excel lar coz i'm way too lazy to go calculate one by one and do a crazy consolidated CAGR).
Note - the only DCA i do is just to leverage on the "agent investment", which is at NAV without any service charges. Kiamsiap / cheapskate lar me bro, how to say no to this?

To each his own - plans & map to investment success, as everyone has very different risk appetites, focus and experience/skills. The main idea i'm trying to share is to HAVE A PLAN + EXECUTE the plan + TRACK, else how to manage and edit the plan tongue.gif.
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Did similar to you in 2009.

i bought into a few stocks only, still holding till now.
Predominanyly dividend stocks- Boustaed(rm2.3) and Panamy.(Rm9.3)
Also coastal(Rm0.80)- thought it was very good value.

Still holding till now

But i still cant decipher Unit trusts trading......... sad.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 6 2011, 07:49 AM
prophetjul
post Sep 6 2011, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 6 2011, 08:10 AM)
Hhehe - Prophetjul, i also dunno how to trade unit trusts/mutual funds short term. I'm just into 5 to 16 years long trades tongue.gif (in the vein of "in the long run, we're all dead", thus not buy and hold buta)

IMHO, for a person who's investing in Stocks directly already, mutual funds (equity & bond funds) can be picked up sup sup water.
Similar steps required.
1. Filter based on performances, sectors, domestic/foreign, fund's directive/investment approach, etc. to fit your Asset Allocation gap to fulfill
2. Create entry and exit plans / methodology
3. Execute, track and manage based on (2).

IMHO, the only major difference is the SWITCHING game instead of "selling" / redeeming unless U want to cash out.
In an accumulation phase of our investing lives, SWITCHING to/fro bonds/equities is recommended - see the Excel i posted in PMv2 thread or Mutual Fund thread. If cant find, drop me a PM.

In that Excel, i simulated Mutual Funds (with 5.5% service charges + $25 SWITCHING charges) VS Stocks (0.55% cost per buy, another 0.55% per sell) with lump sum $5K, $10K and $20K (something to that effect) and going in/out stocks or SWITCHING between equities and bonds for like 6 to 10 times just using that initial capital + assuming growth/returns of x%.
Bottomline:
As a long term vehicle, mutual funds do have their place, even with the service charges of 5.5% and yearly mgt fees because the transaction costs are less than stocks' in/out costs in the long run + for beginners with low capital (eg. $100pm), the cost is lower than stocks' transaction cost as a $ of the value transacted.

Whoops - i just checked, that post was in response to your Q tongue.gif. Dang my memory, i'm getting old  blush.gif
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1299169/+2182
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i find in direct stocks trade, i am in control. biggrin.gif
in unit trusts, i find the difficulty in the word 'TRUSTS'! biggrin.gif

In direct stocks, i can research with focus whereas in UT, i dont know what the trading bythese
socalled UT managers are. They could be biuying ans selling to their friends! Who regulates?
i know EPF sells/buys to/from PNB, LTAT, etc. A very small merry go round


TRUST? thats a diffcult one..............

BTW banks in euroland is in trouble........even HSBC is gone back to sterling5.0 nod.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 6 2011, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Sep 6 2011, 08:50 AM)
UTs: yeah - trust a bit hard, here.
What to do - until i can take out chunks of $30K from EPF, i can only "afford" to do UTs, not self-directed stock investments using my EPF A/C1 $
Know the system, work/milk the system  blush.gif - lemon and lemon juice thinggy

EPF's stock trading: Yeah - those who are "following" EPF's in/out of stocks are going to be severely confused  laugh.gif Left hand rep buy, right hand rep sells  doh.gif Winner = bursa + securities firm (trading charges)

HSBC is now pound sterling5? hm... me beginning to smell wounded animals.. not much blood gushing out yet.. waiting hungrily for value lelong  drool.gif but like what Chabalang said earlier, hopefully not bad until we lose our working stiff jobs here sweat.gif
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i last sold all HSBC shares in 2008 at sterl 9.30....saw it went down to 3.60! nod.gif .....actually my wifes shares! biggrin.gif
These were shares we held since 1989 Tiananmen.......bloodbath of HK shares
Plunked that into gold........ havent touched any finance stocks since.

i may buy again at 3.60 os less.............. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2011, 08:22 AM

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QUOTE(jphlau @ Oct 14 2011, 08:07 AM)
*cough*kronies*cough*
*
thumbup.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2013, 10:30 AM

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Thomas J. Stanley's and William D. Danko's expected net worth formulas

Formula 1: Expected net worth = age x 0.1 x gross income.
Formula 2: Expected net worth = age x 0.112 x gross income.

Marotta Asset Management's expected net worth formulas

Formula 3: Expected net worth = (adult years / 240 + 0.1) x adult years x gross income; where "adult years" = age - 20.
Formula 4: Expected net worth = [(age / 166) - 0.15] x age x gross income.


Formula 1 : Pass 3.2x

Formula 2 : Pass 2.81x

Formula 3 : Pass Just......narrowly sweat.gif

Formula 4 : Pass 2x

I did not include my house where I am staying in because its not an investment.......its a home.

I just noticed for a person who needs to use serious amounts eg for kids education, its gonna cause
a serious deflation of the numbers especially in later years,
and when you are older and income is higher, your expectations of net worth is higher! sweat.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2013, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Apr 8 2013, 10:28 AM)
What if when you buy the property is 900K, now already 1.2K, but your loan is 800K left. You consider yourself 100K networth or 400K?  hmm.gif
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Presume you mean the prop price is now 1.2mil? smile.gif

Then your net worth escalates to 1.2m - 800k = 400k
prophetjul
post Apr 8 2013, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Apr 8 2013, 10:35 AM)
Thus, it explains why I say the formula is made for property investors. The house price might go up, but in actual fact, you won't have the money until you sold it, right?
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The formula is made for any investor IMO.

Net worth does not mean cash

Its just a net worth formula which is for any asset class, be it properties, cash, intellectual prop, etc.........

AND it can go UP O DOWN...... thumbup.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 9 2013, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(noprogambler @ Apr 8 2013, 05:52 PM)
I think if I have 50% of his stage, I will retire biggrin.gif .
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You are well on yer way........ thumbup.gif

He is about 43 years old.........


smile.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 9 2013, 01:50 PM

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I oso spam....

Age: 50
Occupation: G Manager
Marital Status: does it matter ? wife and gf also asset , lol my ma oso got asset
Asset(s): or Liability ?

Property: current value
1. RM500k Outstanding Loan: RM 140k, 10 yrs
2. RM550k Outstanding loan: RM 0
3. RM2.5m Outstanding loan: RM 0


Car - depreciating asset? NO car..i take Bus
Market Value:


Liability (ies):
Study loan:

Insurance:
Life: RM1.2M
Medical: RM50k pa
Accident: RM2M

Investment:
UT: RM250k
Equities: RM1.2M
Precious Metals : RM1.3M

Cash in hand
RM500k

EPF: RM1.35M

Total Asset: RM8.15M

Total Liability: RM140k

Net Asset: RM8.01M sweat.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 10 2013, 07:26 AM

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QUOTE(noprogambler @ Apr 9 2013, 09:46 PM)
Once your net worth reach RM1 million, then to get RM8 million should not be a problem. The 1st million is always the most difficult.
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Actually............the 1ST MIL is the EASIEST......... biggrin.gif

Growing that !ST MIL to 10 mil gets harder each passing day.............. sweat.gif
prophetjul
post Apr 10 2013, 07:31 AM

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QUOTE(noprogambler @ Apr 10 2013, 12:25 AM)
Of course, 10 years is short and I never thought can reach RM1 million to RM8 million by 10 years leh. Maybe I need 15 years to grow RM1 million to RM8 million. Below is my plan.

So far my track record in share investment is CAGR 20%, which means my portfolio size would double every 4 years. For your information, I just got the share margin facility not long ago, hence the CAGR 20% is an unlevered return.

Maybe my portfolio size was too small and I could flip CAGR 20% in the past, so to be conservative I assume my portfolio's return will be mean reverse to market return when its size becomes larger, likely my long run CAGR would reduce to 15% and with that my portfolio could double every 5 years, this indicates RM1 million could grow to RM8 million in 15 years. And don't forget if I also keep pumping in additional annual savings, then the period of achieving RM8 million could be even shorten further.

Correct me if I am wrong smile.gif .
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CAGR of 20% is VERY impressive....how long have you been investing now?

Even SUSTAINING 15% CAGR over 15 years is almost impossible.....and that's what you have to do to
get from 1mil to 15mil in 15 years.... sweat.gif


Inevitably, The only way to increase net worth is to SAVE......without CApital, one can never get to their goals.
prophetjul
post Apr 10 2013, 07:41 AM

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QUOTE(noprogambler @ Apr 10 2013, 07:34 AM)
I don't know if 1st RM1 million is the easiest or not, so far I have been working and saving for 7 years and investing for 9 years, but I still can't get through that RM1 million sweat.gif .
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Still, with 500k net worth is pretty impressive.

AND 20% CAGR is very impressive. rclxms.gif


prophetjul
post Apr 10 2013, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(noprogambler @ Apr 10 2013, 07:42 AM)
I have been investing for 9 years. As I said, my capital is small so the marginal return for such a small portfolio is normally higher than a bigger portfolio.

If compare my CAGR return with those investment legend such as Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet, their initial year of investment were much more higher at CAGR return of 30% to 40%. That is why in long run even though their portfolio mean reverse to the market's return, their long run average return since inception still can maintain at 15% to 20% because of their great performance in the begin. I am not as good as this investment legend, so I only achieved 20% in my 20s. Likely I may only achieve 15% in my 30s and eventually 10% in my 40s.

Yah I was getting started through savings, plan every budget and spend below my mean.
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Looks like you have a very good plan!

Keep it going! thumbup.gif

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