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Science RM10b for Bakun 675km Undersea Cables, cost benefit analysis

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TSPolaris
post Sep 8 2009, 09:47 AM, updated 17y ago

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QUOTE
KUCHING, July 6 — An open international tender will be put up early next year for the laying of submarine cables to ship electricity generated by Sarawak’s Bakun hydroelectric dam to Peninsula Malaysia. Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui said the international bidding to lay 675km undersea cable from Pueh in Lundu, near here, to Tanjung Leman in Mersing, Johor, would be called because the task needs  high level expertise.

He added that the tender, worth about RM8 billion to RM10 billion, could be awarded to the successful bidder by the middle of next year.

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The purpose for the dam was to meet growing demand for electricity. However, most of this demand said to lie in Peninsular Malaysia and not East Malaysia, where the dam is located. Even in Peninsular Malaysia, however, there is an over-supply of electricity, with Tenaga Nasional Berhad being locked into unfavourable purchasing agreements with Independent Power Producers.

The original idea was to have 30% of the generated capacity consumed in East Malaysia and the rest sent to Peninsular Malaysia. This plan envisioned 730 km of overhead HVDC transmission lines in East Malaysia, 670 km of undersea HVDC cable and 300 km of HVDC transmission line in Peninsular Malaysia.

Usage of the generated capacity was to have been by a proposed aluminium smelting plant in Similajau, near Bintulu, approximately 180 km inland from the dam. The project is a joint venture between Dubai Aluminum Co, Ltd (Dubal) and Gulf International Investment Group (GIIG), an investment fund jointly set up by Malaysian tycoon Syed Mokhtar, and Dubai-based international financier Mohamed Ali Alabbar. This plant was expected to consume 50% of the power generated.

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Critique:

-A huge part of the electricity will be wasted going through such a long way from source to destination of use.

-The estimated cost estimate of RM10b is conservative at best and will likely balloon over the years, just like the Bakun dam itself going many times over it's original estimated cost.

-The amount of money spent could be used for more power per ringgit projects elsewhere.

-The fact that highly polluting aluminum smelter industries are specifically invited to suck up the excess electricity just shows that this project did not take into account the state's demand level for power.

-Usually, the hundreds of kilometers along the pathway of the cables would open up new housing, commercial and industrial areas... but what can be built alongside it under the sea?


This post has been edited by Polaris: Sep 8 2009, 09:52 AM
pixelsheep
post Sep 8 2009, 12:24 PM

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QUOTE(Polaris @ Sep 8 2009, 09:47 AM)
Critique:

-A huge part of the electricity will be wasted going through such a long way from source to destination of use.

-The estimated cost estimate of RM10b is conservative at best and will likely balloon over the years, just like the Bakun dam itself going many times over it's original estimated cost.

-The amount of money spent could be used for more power per ringgit projects elsewhere.

-The fact that highly polluting aluminum smelter industries are specifically invited to suck up the excess electricity just shows that this project did not take into account the state's demand level for power.

-Usually, the hundreds of kilometers along the pathway of the cables would open up new housing, commercial and industrial areas... but what can be built alongside it under the sea?

*
I'm not a electrical engineer, but a couple of things:

Can you state your source on your claims of HVDC power losses? From what I've read, HVDC transmission is a far more efficient and cheaper means of long range power transmission than HVAC. There are many journal papers out there discussing exactly this if you're interested (I took a quick look). Additionally electric power companies routinely employ long range transmission lines to service their customers. It is simply economical to produce the bulk of your electricity in one location and then sending the power over large distances. And when you have a power station over-supplying electricity, why not send that excess power over to where the demand is?

Whether you like it or not, Malaysia is an industrialized country--meaning industries, such as the aluminium smelters you so love to loathe, contribute to a large chunk of our GDP (43.7% according to the CIA world factbook). These industries are major consumers of electric power (The article you quoted mentioned up to 50% of the generated electricity will be consumed by the smelter). This obviously means that, contrary to what you think, there IS a demand for additional power, and there will be continual demand for said power as long as the country remains dedicated to developing its industrial sector.

Your critique on submarine power transmission is perplexing. How else would you transmit power over the ocean? As mentioned above there is plenty of opportunity of industrial development if power is available, and when the sector grows, more people get jobs and the country gets richer. A good thing all around, except maybe for the environment.

This post has been edited by pixelsheep: Sep 8 2009, 05:37 PM
bgeh
post Sep 8 2009, 12:33 PM

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Also: the possibility for load balancing, and while I don't know the specifics, I'm pretty sure there will be redundancies built into the project. Don't want another ship anchoring incident like the multiple submarine cable failures that affect our Streamyx connection wink.gif
rexis
post Sep 8 2009, 11:04 PM

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Sabah and Sarawak are facing a shortage of power, Bakun dam will bring so much good. There's power overwhelming in Semenanjung, but that doesn't justify that Bakun power is redundant. With sufficient power available, it is no surprised that Sabah and Sarawak to grow more then they were expected.

And Bakun Dam plus an undersea cable to Semenanjung will make huge amount of renewable energy available, perhaps TNB is with a tie to purchase electric from IPP, we can/have to get rid of them someday anyhow, like for meeting Kyoto Protocol, environmental issues, or fuel cost issues.

It is common for aluminium smelters to located next to or within reach of a hydroelectric dam due to the massive power requirement.

And...
QUOTE
The amount of money spent could be used for more power per ringgit projects elsewhere.

We are already wasting so much money in buying electricity from IPP just to zap it into thin air.

But just in case TNB able to get rid of IPP, or our demand has risen so much. Particularly what kind of more power per ringgit projects we can have?

More coal plants? That is like going backward, for the fact that coal is so polluting and furthermore, we need to import them and got tie to international price.
More natural gas plants? Our gas reserves are diminishing and we already need to import some from overseas.
Nuclear power? Obviously this won't be a solution in a few decades.

When we need to think about more power per ringgit, renewable energies(other then hydro) stand little change to win the bidding.
bgeh
post Sep 8 2009, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE
Nuclear power? Obviously this won't be a solution in a few decades.

Why obviously? It isn't obvious to me at all.

This post has been edited by bgeh: Sep 8 2009, 11:44 PM
befitozi
post Sep 9 2009, 01:32 AM

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FYI, nuclear power has been and still is the most efficient in terms of power per ringgit/dollar available.

If you look at the amount of area needed to be sunked, its very obvious that hydro dams damage the environment more then nuclear power. And the scale is to the power of 100.
berzerk
post Sep 9 2009, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(rexis @ Sep 8 2009, 11:04 PM)
Sabah and Sarawak are facing a shortage of power,
*
Sabah may have a power shortage but they're already planning to build a coal power plant in Sandakan to cater for the area with the worst shortage i.e. the east of the state. Sarawak currently has an adequate reserve margin of 16% in a situation where there are no attempts to reduce wastage or tap other less environmentally evasive hydro power sources that are closer to the areas where the power is used. Further there has been no effort at all to explore other renewable energy options like tidal power.

I've read somewhere that to make Bakun economically viable, the price of power from the Dam will have to be higher than from other sources. Even the proposed aluminium smelter reeks of poor business. If as they claim this smelter will soak up a large proportion of the power from Bakun, won't this make the Dam entirely reliant on one customer? In any business, when a customer has monopsony power they will negotiate lower power prices for themselves. In essence, the retail electricity users will have to subsidise the power supplied to the smelter to keep the smelter from closing down. See the example from Comalco's Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter & the Manapouri hydro power station.

QUOTE
Comalco never built the power station. With the company complaining that it could not afford to build the power plant, the government agreed in 1963 to build the Manapouri plant itself and to sell electricity from the station to Comalco at bargain- basement prices that have still not been officially revealed. The original Comalco rate was 13 times less than the rate paid by New Zealand householders and one twentieth the rate charged to other industries and farmers. The government even granted the company the right to take electricity from the national grid at Manapouri prices; Comalco exercised this right in 1974, when a drought caused a severe drop in Lake Manapouri's level.

Comalco has not given up its aspirations to retain access to Manapouri power at discount rates. Now it is employing the tried-and-true multinational strategem of pitting regions and countries against each other.

In March 1992, the Comalco board of directors met at Tiwai for the first time since 1984, told the anxious local media that it could only afford to upgrade one smelter at a time and announced that it would make its decision on which smelter to upgrade within the next six months. Chief Executive Nick Stump suggested several possible options: construction of the fourth Tiwai potline (with extra power needed from Electricorp); privatization of the Gladstone power station and expansion of the Boyne Island smelter in Queensland, Australia, or replacement of the Bell Bay potlines in Tasmania. "They are all [NZ]$500 million plus projects. The question is who is going to be first cab off the rank," Stump said. And he introduced a wild card - a pre-feasibility study on a new smelter in Chile.

Invercargill, the major city closest to Tiwai, has benefited handsomely from Comalco money and smelter jobs. The local National MP urged Bolger to step in to assure that the smelter expansion would take place in Bluff, and not in Chile or elsewhere.

corad
post Sep 25 2009, 06:43 AM

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QUOTE(Polaris @ Sep 8 2009, 09:47 AM)
Critique:

-A huge part of the electricity will be wasted going through such a long way from source to destination of use.

-The estimated cost estimate of RM10b is conservative at best and will likely balloon over the years, just like the Bakun dam itself going many times over it's original estimated cost.

-The amount of money spent could be used for more power per ringgit projects elsewhere.

-The fact that highly polluting aluminum smelter industries are specifically invited to suck up the excess electricity just shows that this project did not take into account the state's demand level for power.

-Usually, the hundreds of kilometers along the pathway of the cables would open up new housing, commercial and industrial areas... but what can be built alongside it under the sea?

*
1) Obviously you do not understand High Voltage Transmission Cables. These usually consist of ~76cores, with a center titanium rod (for strength), encased with grease, triple armored and laid inside a composite pipe buried into the seabed. There are much more efficient that the copper cables you have in your house.

2)This is what quotes & agreements are for. No Malaysian company has the expertise to lay sea cables, so someone else will have to brought in, hopefully these will be true professionals who try their best to complete their job & keep their reputation.

3)True. At the cost of the environment. Also Sarawak has plans to build 6 further dams to supplement the SCORE project, with an eventual total of 36dams in the state. (Al-Jalzeera interview, 101 East)

4) If it were up to me, I would keep this project as far away as possible. However, it is flawed to say this smelter plant was made just to suck electricity. These things have all been planned. Otherwise what would be the point of building a dam ?


Kampung2005
post Oct 8 2009, 01:28 PM

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Obviously, the undersea cable will not be built just for Bakun.

Bakun is 2,400 MW.

However, there is a projection that this undersea cable, maybe able to export 10,000 MW from Sarawak to peninsular.
~lynn~
post Oct 8 2009, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(Polaris @ Sep 8 2009, 09:47 AM)
Critique:

-A huge part of the electricity will be wasted going through such a long way from source to destination of use.

-The estimated cost estimate of RM10b is conservative at best and will likely balloon over the years, just like the Bakun dam itself going many times over it's original estimated cost.

-The amount of money spent could be used for more power per ringgit projects elsewhere.

-The fact that highly polluting aluminum smelter industries are specifically invited to suck up the excess electricity just shows that this project did not take into account the state's demand level for power.

-Usually, the hundreds of kilometers along the pathway of the cables would open up new housing, commercial and industrial areas... but what can be built alongside it under the sea?

*
1) Sorry but, the losses wouldn't be as big as you've thought it'd be. Let me give you a bit of insight.

On regular transmission lines, electrical power are transmitted in AC. Due to the inductance and capacitance in the line, there will be reactive losses.
However, when the transmission length is long (>500km), it will be converted to DC. In DC, due to the absence of frequency parameter, there won't be any losses due to reactive components. Real power loss will only come from the resistance of the line, which is very small compared to the distance in total.

2) & 3) sleep.gif so is many of the government projects.

4) I can sort of agree with this. TNB is paying alot of money to the IPPs for their power generation. But thing is, not all their power generated is fed into the national grid. Worse is that, some IPP are still being paid even though they did not generate electricity (it violates the law, but it's hard to detect)
So question is, do Peninsular Malaysia need that extra electricity?

5) Really? The way I see it, on-land transmission opens for squatters too.
jimmykvt
post Nov 25 2009, 10:53 AM

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Sabah has been suffering power cut for decades and until today while working in my office, i would have like at least 3 to 4 hours of power cut everyday. Sabah is just beside Sarawak and yet they are not planning to supply this sort of energy to Sabah.

Wonder what's in their mind though...
spursfan
post Dec 3 2009, 08:56 AM

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power carrying capacity of ac/dc lines

double circuit ac line power, Pac = 6EpIlcosφ
dc line power, Pdc = 6VdId

k = dc withstand voltage/ac withstand voltage (rms)
k1 = ac insulation level/rated ac voltage
k2 = dc insulation level/rated dc voltage

when the lines are loaded to their thermal loadings, and Vd=k*(k1/k2)*Ep

Pdc = 6(k(k1/k2)EpIl)
= k(k1/k2)*(Pac/cosφ)

taking k=1, k1=2.5, k2=1.7 (very conservative assumptions)

therefore, Pdc/Pac=1.47/cosφ

power transmission is at least 47% higher

losses is decreased by 1/1.47 = 68%

edit: i think electrical engineers can confirm that the power transmission and loss decrease can be higher than that, plus the skin effect wasn't taken into account.

This post has been edited by spursfan: Dec 3 2009, 09:00 AM

 

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