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 Bear Bear, Can we or cannot?

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TSdannyooi_84
post Aug 21 2009, 10:49 AM, updated 17y ago

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It is possible to be buying on the bear side.??

When it goes up everybody is earning like crazy. So when it goes down everybody is going bankrupt! smile.gif I learned in the forex you can be on the bull or the bear side. Is it applicable in stock market?

Sorry for my noobiness!
DanielW
post Aug 21 2009, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(dannyooi_84 @ Aug 21 2009, 10:49 AM)
It is possible to be buying on the bear side.??

When it goes up everybody is earning like crazy. So when it goes down everybody is going bankrupt! smile.gif I learned in the forex you can be on the bull or the bear side. Is it applicable in stock market?

Sorry for my noobiness!
*
Yes, you can.

You need to learn how to calculate the Intrinsic Value for the stock first. When the share price drop below the Intrinsic Value, that is when it is a good buy. When you buy below the Intrinsic Value, you're buying within the Margin of Safety.

"Your profit is made when you buy, not when you sell" by Robert Kiyosaki

This post has been edited by DanielW: Aug 21 2009, 12:02 PM
jasontoh
post Aug 21 2009, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(dannyooi_84 @ Aug 21 2009, 10:49 AM)
It is possible to be buying on the bear side.??

When it goes up everybody is earning like crazy. So when it goes down everybody is going bankrupt! smile.gif I learned in the forex you can be on the bull or the bear side. Is it applicable in stock market?

Sorry for my noobiness!
*
When it goes up everyone sure make money. When it comes down, if you invest within your means, I do not think you will be bankrupt. Worst case is your NAV drop. If you want to short the market, do not think it is simple, coz once the market is bullish, sky is you limit of loss. So you may actually go bankrupt
Medufsaid
post Aug 21 2009, 12:32 PM

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Could TS be asking if one can short stocks? The 'bear' side.
TSdannyooi_84
post Aug 21 2009, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Aug 21 2009, 12:32 PM)
Could TS be asking if one can short stocks? The 'bear' side.
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Ya, I talking about this. Sorry for the confusion. Like trading forex. You can sell at, let say 1.4030 ..then closed the trade at 1.4000. Earning 30 pips. You know what I mean. So i'm actually "shorting" the share ..then selling it off at a lower price?

Oh...the Bulls and Bears.

This post has been edited by dannyooi_84: Aug 21 2009, 01:50 PM
cherroy
post Aug 21 2009, 01:53 PM

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One can benefit from bear market through

1. Short sell of the futures
2. Short sell of the stocks, (which is troublesome and highly regulated in KLSE which little people interest in it only)
3. Short sell the individual stocks future.
4. Buy put warrant/option, which is not yet available in KLSE.


In overseas market, there are more option or derivative one of the most famous is CDS, which AIG stumbled on it and need massive US gov bailout because of it.

Just to add;
2. You cannot simply short sell a stock like in Forex, you need to arrange for borrowed share with investment banks or relevant broking house or parties first before you can sell.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 21 2009, 01:55 PM
TSdannyooi_84
post Aug 21 2009, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 21 2009, 01:53 PM)
One can benefit from bear market through

1. Short sell of the futures
2. Short sell of the stocks, (which is troublesome and highly regulated in KLSE which little people interest in it only)
3. Short sell the individual stocks future.
4. Buy put warrant/option, which is not yet available in KLSE.
In overseas market, there are more option or derivative one of the most famous is CDS, which AIG stumbled on it and need massive US gov bailout because of it.

Just to add;
2. You cannot simply short sell a stock like in Forex, you need to arrange for borrowed share with investment banks or relevant broking house or parties first before you can sell.
*
Hmm.. so it is kind of troublesome to be on the bear side right? All for the bulls ... smile.gif thanks for the reply Cherroy
cherroy
post Aug 21 2009, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(dannyooi_84 @ Aug 21 2009, 02:22 PM)
Hmm.. so it is kind of troublesome to be on the bear side right? All for the bulls ... smile.gif thanks for the reply Cherroy
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The easier accessible way is to short the futures, but this could be very risky if you don't know what you are doing.
skiddtrader
post Aug 21 2009, 08:22 PM

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Well if the warrant trend are any indication, we will be seeing some 'Put' warrants in the market soon instead of the more common 'Call' warrants.

So far, AmInvest and OSK has issued 'Put' warrants in the market. FYI 'Put' warrants gives you the right to Sell a certain stock. Should be good for Bears.
! Love Money
post Aug 22 2009, 08:14 AM

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there are currently 3 put warrants, 1 from Am and 2 from OSK...

Am offering a pair of call and put warrant of HKEx, call was 0.20 (HKEX-CC) and put was 0.185 (HKEX-H1) but this 2 warrants is not open everyday

OSK pulak:

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

i am targeting on the the HKEX-H1 when the market drop brows.gif
skiddtrader
post Aug 22 2009, 09:17 AM

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OSK one need to drop at least 200 points in KLCI only can see profit. But it lasts for 2 years so... you never know.
danmooncake
post Aug 22 2009, 11:28 AM

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@ NYSE, if one is not able to short, one can actually buy a BEAR market share. biggrin.gif

A bear share is not shorting but moves up when the market goes down.

The bear share moves in inverse direction of the underlying index of the bull share.
Say if the market is down, bull share is down 2%, the bear share will rise 2%.
So, if you're bearish and can't borrow shares to short, you can buy the bear share.
The inverse is also true, if the market is up, bull share goes up, bear share will go down.

If you're short term trader and 'goreng' type, these are for you.

Of course, unfortunately these kind of trading instruments are not available @ KLSE. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 22 2009, 11:32 AM
cherroy
post Aug 22 2009, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Aug 22 2009, 09:17 AM)
OSK one need to drop at least 200 points in KLCI only can see profit. But it lasts for 2 years so... you never know.
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I don't like the way they issue call warrant or even now put warrant, always issued at >20-30% premium, somemore European style, means you are handicapped at those premium from the start already.

You need market/stock move at least 20-30% only start to breakeven, not yet gaining a single cent. So if duration is short, your winning chance is quite small only. Stocks seldom move more than 20-30% pa.


TSdannyooi_84
post Aug 22 2009, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 22 2009, 11:28 AM)
@ NYSE, if one is not able to short, one can actually buy a BEAR market share.  biggrin.gif

A bear share is not shorting but moves up when the market goes down.

The bear share moves in inverse direction of the underlying index of the bull share.
Say if the market is down, bull share is down 2%, the bear share will rise 2%.
So, if you're bearish and can't borrow shares to short, you can buy the bear share. 
The inverse is also true, if the market is up, bull share goes up, bear share will go down.

If you're short term trader and 'goreng' type, these are for you.

Of course, unfortunately these kind of trading instruments are not available @ KLSE.  biggrin.gif
*
So basically there is not chance for us to be on the "bear" side right @ KLSE?

When the NYSE market tumbles down during the recession, those on the bearish side will gain like crazy. But I don't seem to see that. Or is it everybody only looks for the bull.

Some illustration:

lets say I go to genting and gamble on "Tai Sai" table. You can either bet on "big" or "small". But in stock market it seems like everyone is aiming for the "big" @ the bull but not the "small" @ bear. I really wonder why no one plays the bear side. hmm.. It is like we are force to choose the "big" side, isn't it? Hmm...maybe I'm confuse rclxub.gif


danmooncake
post Aug 22 2009, 12:55 PM

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So basically there is not chance for us to be on the "bear" side right @ KLSE?

Cherroy did point out that the "put" warrant is like a "bear" side type is available but there is a premium for it.
Or you play "regulated short" on certain type of stocks which are available.


When the NYSE market tumbles down during the recession, those on the bearish side will gain like crazy. But I don't seem to see that. Or is it everybody only looks for the bull.


Yes, when NYSE tumbles big time last year and in March, those Bearish side POP big time.
Those people who shorted Financials, Real Estates, Commodities got super rich.

But during the bull run, bear side hurt a lot. sad.gif

To play both side, one must know how to jump on the moving train at the right time.
If bull run, jump north ride up.. if bear, jump south and ride down.



lets say I go to genting and gamble on "Tai Sai" table. You can either bet on "big" or "small". But in stock market it seems like everyone is aiming for the "big" @ the bull but not the "small" @ bear. I really wonder why no one plays the bear side. hmm.. It is like we are force to choose the "big" side, isn't it? Hmm...maybe I'm confuse rclxub.gif

LOL! I know what you mean. But, the govt will view that as gambling.. not investing. They don't want you to hurt yourself. tongue.gif
protonw
post Aug 22 2009, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(DanielW @ Aug 21 2009, 11:57 AM)
Yes, you can.

You need to learn how to calculate the Intrinsic Value for the stock first. When the share price drop below the Intrinsic Value, that is when it is a good buy. When you buy below the Intrinsic Value, you're buying within the Margin of Safety.

"Your profit is made when you buy, not when you sell" by Robert Kiyosaki
*
Any simple way to calculate intrinsic value, mind to share? notworthy.gif


TSdannyooi_84
post Aug 24 2009, 05:29 PM

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@danmooncake, do u invest in US stocks? If we invest in the NYSE so we can play the bear side right? smile.gif
debbieyss
post Aug 24 2009, 09:55 PM

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danmooncake, I'm riding on a bear now... I want a BIG bear...

But, i'm pretty sure CI will hit 1200 very soon...ya i know, CI is no longer matter much to stocks traders anyhow it does still stand a certain essential to stocks market.
danmooncake
post Aug 25 2009, 07:02 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Aug 24 2009, 09:55 PM)
danmooncake, I'm riding on a bear now... I want a BIG bear...

But, i'm pretty sure CI will hit 1200 very soon...ya i know, CI is no longer matter much to stocks traders anyhow it does still stand a certain essential to stocks market.
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Ride the bear.. if you believe the stocks has topped and about the make the turn.

That's what I thinking now on some of the US stocks.. we ran up so much.. I'm expecting pullback already as earnings and those "less bad" news are subsiding. The fundamentals are weak (ie. the consumer demand for products and services).
Gilly
post Aug 25 2009, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Aug 24 2009, 09:55 PM)
danmooncake, I'm riding on a bear now... I want a BIG bear...

But, i'm pretty sure CI will hit 1200 very soon...ya i know, CI is no longer matter much to stocks traders anyhow it does still stand a certain essential to stocks market.
*
The right term is, I'm bearish on the KLSE, or I want to short this stock... riding on the bear sounds weird
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