QUOTE(.:BreT:. @ Aug 19 2009, 11:20 AM)
chyaw, how bout goldenagr?
Summary of the research paper for golden agri:
Golden Agri Resources (GAR) released its 2Q09 results on Friday;
revenue was down 30.7% YoY but rebounded 37.2% QoQ to US$565.6m; net profit
tumbled 64.7% YoY but was up nearly 543.0% QoQ to US$55.1m. Operationally,
it appears that the worst of the previous tree stress (due to the drought
in 2006) has passed; management is hopeful of seeing better production
numbers in 2H09. And while there may be a possible El Nino effect this
year, management believes that the impact will probably be felt some 12
months later. We have also raised our CPO assumptions for this year from
US$600/ton to US$620/ton, and this in turn bumps up our FY09 revenue
forecast by 6.8%; but only raised our net profit estimate by 4.2% as GAR
will still need to work through the excess fertilizer that it had bought at
a much higher price late last year. Using a higher 12x blended FY09/FY10
EPS valuation (vs. 10x previously), our fair value will rise from S$0.35 to
S$0.45. Given the limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating.