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 Stock Market V37: Return of the Bull, Part V, Bull vs. Bear

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cherroy
post Aug 14 2009, 10:18 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 14 2009, 05:20 PM)
we become their ahlong edy like dat.

ICULS is only good when market is bullish. correct me if i'm wrong.
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ICULS is not good for existing shareholders, as those ICULS eventually will be converted into mothershare after maturity.

Subscribed to ICULS won't make your much money, in fact a lot of time making loss, as it must be issued at par value, or RM 1 or RM0.10, so when it first listing time, it also trade at same or most of the time lower than the subcribed price, that's why company need to give free detachable warrant as 'sweet' to compensate the potential loss in taking up the ICULS.

The reason why it can't chalk up premium like warrant, because it carries no gearing, conversion is based on number of ICULS into mothershare, like 10 ICULS convert into 1. No exercise price/cash involved.

The good side is it only will dilute the EPS after the maturity, so it is instead of right issue, (which diluted straight away), it defers the dilution effect until 5 years afterwards (most ICULS have 5 years life time), while paying loan interest in between.

You can treat it yourself as ahlong, right. biggrin.gif

One thing good about ICULS, it pays your fixed interest every year, no matter how mothershare or ICULS price go. So it is a source of fixed income play while exposed yourself into equities.

I previously like ICULS play before, bought a lot as well so that it gives me a steady stream of income, (my always style, that's we I like reit and dividend play), but now, it is become less popular, while those issuing it are more on second, third liner stocks only, not more big cap, big name company issuing anymore.
cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Aug 17 2009, 11:24 AM)
im queueing to buy Hong Leong Bank, any sifu got advice for me ?
Dividend wise not that great, around 4%
It is somewhat steady counter, and still got some room to go up....
Interim report coming end of this month... and since hlbank is so conservative, i think they are doing fine...

my queue is @ 5.80, 1lot.. (test test water  tongue.gif )
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Based on book value, PER, around 6.00 is already fair value. It is a potential target for acquisition if BNM wants local bank to consolidate further. But normal acquisition is being done not more than 2x or 1.5x based on its book value, so the max it can go under current fundamenal factor is around 6.xx ~7.00

Dividend is a bit 'kedekut' compared to others counterpart.

Being monitor this stock quite long. Never move much.


cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 17 2009, 03:26 PM)
red hot chillie monday, you love it, no? biggrin.gif
*
This is red tom yam, yummy yummy. drool.gif

Red rambutan is tasty as well.




cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 04:38 PM

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After so many months, since March, first time to see DJ futures down >150 points.

Missed those "exciting" day. tongue.gif


cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 17 2009, 05:16 PM)
dow future -172

ho ho, my bet, tonite dow will close at slightly above 9000 pts, 300pts loss - kenot escape liao.

the day where the world stock sink!
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Make it a black Monday then, after all September is approaching, bear's favourite month.

But I doubt it could sink as much as 300 points as lately market is quite stable (I could be wrong), as it is something we have not seen quite a long time. Missed that. wub.gif
cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(espree @ Aug 17 2009, 10:55 PM)
Hi Debbie, if I buy futures, can I extend the deadline?
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QUOTE(espree @ Aug 17 2009, 11:00 PM)
the contract is 1 month. can i further extend it?
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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Aug 17 2009, 11:01 PM)
Rollover you mean, right?

ikan bilis like me are not allowed to rollover, but sharks, yes.
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There is no extension on futures contract, once expired, need to settle.

But one can rollover the contract each month by selling the spot month, then buying the next month contract.

Just like now is Aug is spot month, so it will expire on 28 of Aug. So on 28 Aug, you sell at 1160 (let say) and (if you are long in the first place) the Aug contract, at the same time, buy the Sept contract at 1160 which incurred Rm25 trade commission on both transaction, it is a rollover already, as you artificially extend the length of the futures which you own. You rollover the contract with Rm50.


Added on August 17, 2009, 11:10 pmSo in this way, you can hold the futures for long term investing purposes.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 17 2009, 11:10 PM
cherroy
post Aug 17 2009, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 17 2009, 11:21 PM)
No Land/Construction/Infra-structure related counters?
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Construction is a dangerous area to be in particularly in Malaysia, as it is more political linked, contract awarded etc issue are highly depended on political decision. While some company exist just based on favourism of the political decision, not surviving and competiting in the market on its own.

Not to say all construction is bad, just highlight the risk of it.

Over the long term, it is always those consumer related, hard asset related (including plantation) are the one that actually give good return rate in term of dividend besides the capital appreciation side. Finance can be dangerous as well, must pick the one really good one, as finance company as shown in lastest finance crisis can be vulnerable to any fallout in economy. A surge of NPL can bring down the 100 years old finance company overnight.

cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 11:15 AM

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Now all eyes are on China market.


cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 11:16 AM

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The market lately is full of right issue, which can kill the bull one as right issue suck in money from the market eventually left with less money for fresh buying.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Aug 18 2009, 12:15 PM)
i wonder what is Tanjong's fair value now...
where to find or calculate fair value of a stock?  blush.gif
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There is no such thing of a standard fair value, it depended on individual call.

Some can say 14.00, some can say 18.00, all are right based on their valuation.

Valuation or fair value call is about your expected return from it.

Just like it is paying 90 cents dividend pa. so we need to see its EPS at least >90 cents, which to justify the cost we are paying let say 18.00, which translate into 5% yield. <--- do you satisfy the 5% yield from the stock? If answer is yes, ok Rm18.00 is a fair value for you. But if I demand more because of more risk involved in current economy situation, so I aim for 6%, so my fair value is Rm15.00.

QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 18 2009, 12:19 PM)
cherroy says RM18, huat ah!  rclxms.gif
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Based on current fundamental factor (if EPS and dividend doesn't go up), Rm18.00 actually can sell liao as a bit toppish already, little more room for the upside unless there will be significant EPS improvement.




cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 18 2009, 11:54 AM)
need input from ms protonw

wondering has she converted her Bstead-OR into mothershares? ohya, normally this kind of conversion comes with 1-week maturity only right?

... i couldnt get much info on the net.
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-OR generally will be listed for 1 week or so only.

-OR is just the right for you to subscribe the right issue. It is not a conversion.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 18 2009, 02:09 PM)
don't like that lar. Currently, I like all my holdings. Hard to decide which to throw...
Mulpha is currently giving me some headache as I normally don't like rights issue....  hmm.gif
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RI sometimes is seem like 'con job' (not really con job, just my own description). Invest in a company to seek for return, now want me to put more money pulak, if not your previously stake will be diluted.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 18 2009, 02:27 PM)
Market totally dead...I don't think there's been a single transaction in the last 20 minutes.....

....either that or my screen has hung...... hmm.gif
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LMAO, laugh.gif

Market has not yet opened!! laugh.gif
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Aug 18 2009, 02:23 PM)
The rights issue for Mulpha on paper sound like a good deal, but the objective is to pay debt (which something that I don't like).
I'm still hoping to hear 3rd party (research paper) opinion on this.
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Right issue is seem positive if those money raised is used for acquisition/expansion which can push the company profit into new level.

If those right issue is just to pay debt, then it just means previously company doesn't manage the cashflow properly, as paying debt won't push the company profit higher (yes it does also, in term of saving debt interest but not on revenue side), while there are more share now means EPS will be diluted which is not good for share price in term of fundamental.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 18 2009, 03:52 PM)
Latexx for once traded at RM15 i heard. those are the beautiful days  wub.gif

have you got yours man?
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Actually, those are nightmare days for most retailers, when second board are being hot and fiercely gorenged time.

You know what you cannot find any second board stock that below Rm7-8!

Can go through how much has left for most stocks, after 10 years has passed.

If Latexx once traded at Rm15 with high volume (generally does because when goreng time, volume spike), it just means a lot investors did buy at Rm15.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Aug 18 2009, 04:13 PM)
what? RM120?

Never heard.

I know he;s behind IRIS goreng from penny 0.1x cnts in DEC 2005 to 1.3x in May 2006. Cantek ?? With super heavy volume.

Imagine those holding IRIS since early 2006, until now still bleeding (my fren is one of 'em)
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Yup, Rm 1xx for a second board company called Repco, the ultimate king of goreng, second place should be Iris, from 0.1x to 1.xx in short period of time.

Why so famous? because the style of goreng is very fierce one, goreng until you cannot tahan, and unbelievable level, which make a lot of retailers want to 'touch' to share a bit of the goreng. But once let go, bye bye liao.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 18 2009, 04:16 PM)
7092    JPK    JPK HOLDINGS BHD 
JPK-NEW ADMISSION INTO PN17


"admission" is a nice word. like admitted into hospital.  sweat.gif
*
Admission to crocodile farm may be. laugh.gif

Joking only.
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 04:18 PM

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Tanjong seller struggling to find buyer to throw, keep on sliding. brows.gif
cherroy
post Aug 18 2009, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Aug 18 2009, 04:18 PM)
This is what I'm tryin to bring-up. Many shares never recovered since heyday of 2000, or 2007.

Example : Zelan was 5-6RM in 2007 but now?

Don't have to scroll to yesteryears, just compare 2 years back is enuf.
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Zelan or previous company name ThLoy, was Rm 1x.xx which I bought before.
cherroy
post Aug 19 2009, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(nujikabane @ Aug 19 2009, 12:13 AM)
Usually how does the market behave when a company declares rights issue?
Will the price drop or will it rise ?

A case in point, GPacket has recently declare  rights issue, but seeing from the response, I've seen the price continues to rise, it is as if the investors do want to take up the rights issue and have confident in the market. Can anyone elaborate?
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Mostly share price will drop when RI is known/announced, because company want more money from you instead give money to you, so this is not something good news.

The share rise afterwards for GPacket or any other stocks related to RI, is more about general market trend and individual stock issue already.



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