I also agree that selling pressure will remain for a while at least before 21/May. This is the date KNM will announce the finance report.

Anyhow when I look at EPF activity, they have increasing their share as below:

11-May-09 KNM Employees Provident Fund Board Acquired 800,000 (389,535,304)
13-May-09 KNM Employees Provident Fund Board Acquired/ Disposed 6,816,300 (394,351,604)
15-May-09 KNM Employees Provident Fund Board Acquired/ Disposed 15,349,000 (399,018,604)

Perhaps is a good idea to sell now and pick up later when it drops below RM0.70. Unfortunately I don't think I have the patience to do this and hence I decide to hold it. If it really go below RM 0.70, I might increase my portfolio from 70% to 80%.

The gyration in recent 2 days and again on Monday really has to do with retail sales which have weakened. We knew about this when Warren Buffet said so in Berkshire's AGM some time ago.

Oil price then followed suit and now is USD56+ only. The critical figure to look for in KNM is the net profit margin in Q1 09 as sales values got slashed, amortisation of goodwill and intangibles was RM40m plus a year, I think and effective tax may continue to be higher.

KNM will have to depend on lower interest rate, and lower raw material costs to counter the above. EPS will be an interesting figure to watch.

News on substantial contract is next to none since Aug or Oct 08. It will be bad for the share price if annualised EPS for Q1 09 is below 7.5sen. We will see if it will be over or under 7.5sen next week

Oil price meanwhile cannot fall to below USD53. If that happens KNM may move to 65sen, then we can see another round of sai lang among folks in this forum.

Haha, quarterly result is the passed result. Do you think today oil price can affected the report? Also KNM is no selling oil, KNM only provide solutions. The report will only affected by his customer investment in oil equipments.

Ya, I'll be one of them would sai-lang more if drops below RM 0.65.

Vhonda, I believe u r a good son of ur mom. Frankly I never tell anyone about my share portfolio especially my parents. They wud be fainted if I tell them.

Their advice is sincere but might not be the best. Make ur own call....

analysts are upgrading their call on O&G sector
KNMG is like the market leader now.
Feels like last time IRIS style

As said, quarterly results give indication of how well KNM copes with the plunge in global economy,, especially if it can squeeze suppliers the extent it is by the oil majors. EPS gives you that indication. Besides, the top line is important also as it indicates the level of biz activities in recessionary times like these.

KNM's customers are oil majors mainly and oil and gas is still the main contributor of KNM's profit. If your customer has no money because of oil price plunge, do you think it can set aside consistently high capex budget on exploration, etc and place resultant orders with you ordering process equipment. Oil price plunged, capex scaled down, delayed, or cancelled, no need for any new process equipment, and for existing existing equipment already in use, stretch it for longer life through repair and maintenance instead of buying new ones.

Contract normalisation and resumption is still key.

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 2:32 pm[quote=okw0809,May 16 2009, 12:12 PM]
Ya, I'll be one of them would sai-lang more if drops below RM 0.65.

Vhonda, I believe u r a good son of ur mom. Frankly I never tell anyone about my share portfolio especially my parents. They wud be fainted if I tell them.

Their advice is sincere but might not be the best. Make ur own call....

[/quote


Vhonda shares the shares with his wife. In a way, it affects your judgement. In my case, there is no difference as my money is our money and her money is our money also. My money is 99.5% and hers is 0.5%. I call all the shot and she need just admire or despair over great or bad decisions of mine.

Only my wife knows my investment in this world, assumiing I do not tell Teewan later.

This post has been edited by CKC (Sense-Maker): May 16 2009, 02:32 PM

because my mom is my supporter too .... we can share everything or idea .... she just ask me to becareful ... hehe
of cors there will be affected

This post has been edited by v-honda: May 16 2009, 05:04 PM

I'm caught in a dilemma

1. Cash out now and earn a handsome amount (almost can buy a Vios with my long term earnings, almost, but I would drool at the thoughts of winnings of a Honda Accord)

2. Cash out some (perhaps half) and hold the rest, buy back if the price dips hard.

3. Hold and pray


My Dad would ask me to make my own decision, not wanting to risk making wrong judgement

My bodyguard shares the same vision of KNM at RM1++

Another friend of mine, knowing my avg cost, unhesitantly tells me : SELL!!!

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 6:49 pm

This post has been edited by teewan: May 16 2009, 06:49 PM

Teewan, 44sen is admirable as I wrote before. My prediction of Vios for you have come true but as market place is fluid, more so this counter, do not count the chicks yet till they are hatched. What you should do depend on many things; the most important of which is how much bullet you still have on the sideline and how much you crave for Accord. If you have another 20 to 30%% to spare, wait for the counter to come down and sai lang later. But I know you buy and sell shares more often than you eat rice everyday, you may miss out that fun if you have no cash in hand to contra; but of course there is this share financing facilities. When KNM touches 50sen, I will get one of those facilities to sai lang.

For now, just enjoy the shows of MU and Lee Chong Wei tonight.

haha i am just thinking whether to earn less or wait for more

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 7:05 pmwith this, CKC has utmost strong confidence on fundamental of KNM without a doubt.

This post has been edited by taikin: May 16 2009, 07:05 PM

Good and bad; For me I am like OKW, it is better to keep our exposure to and return on shares to ourselves. There is no need to involve old people and let them worry.

Your decision, once affected, will not be clinical and will likely be of the same quality made by any ordinary aunty in the Pasar. That is the bad side.

The good side is you have a lot of support especially when it goes up. When it comes down, you cannot help feeling sorry when faces surrounding you all turn sour.

Again, to be a hero in the long run, hard work is key. You need to invovle just your wife as your future is tied to hers.

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 7:22 pmBad news are resurfacing, at this price level, KNM will not likely get good support. Oil dropped a lot last Friday, to enter, a lower level is better. To sell, the best time is over and of course, you know the best time only now with hindsight. That is the thing with shares. At 76.5sen, PE is about 10 to 11 times. Not so high but not that low too; it is just fair. I actually wanted to sell some at 83 sen but my landlines are not working well and Remiser's line was engaged. No worry as I look forward to reload at 60sen level.

This post has been edited by CKC (Sense-Maker): May 16 2009, 07:22 PM

Good family bonding.....great.

I think I heard u said regret more than my heart beat stops. I hope u don't mean it when u said it just like my heart beat.
If u do, I hope I can spare a story with u.

Before I sai-lan to KNM, I told myself to set my goal clear and never influenced by others.
However somewhere in Apr, price shot up from 0.40+ to close to 0.60. When I looked at the situation, I rushed in at the price of 0.58. This price average up my price a lot. Immediately I bought it, it dropped back to 0.52 within a few days.

At that time, I regretted I made that decision. But when compare to today price, 0.58 is a good and I did not make wrong decision.
So I would like to say, some decision might look bad today but it could be a good decision in the future. Again it has possibility to become bad decision.

So no point to regret. Let's live happily and again in future, u might be glad u did not listen to ur mom.
Again look forward and be happy with ur own decision......

If you feel bad, think of a friend of mine who started with father-given RM5m but is now negative RM5m, having failed in biz deal. He is on the run now from Ah Long. So, risks are always there but take them in our stride. Correction will continue, but with luck, it may not be big and can hold at 70sen tomorrow. The more you understand and the harder you work, the better you can sleep; otherwise you will live in consternation when prices are weak. Cheer up, v-honda, we are with you.

I didn't say you are wrong. just told you the quarterly report will not affected by current oil price. what i want to clarify to you is to corrected your explanation. refer to the past we know the oil price is very low in passed 3 months, mean the report is not that good and may turn into negative. If they have contract signed a year before the market worst, they may still deliver the equipments to customer and close the sales.

The current oil price could affected the share price now, but if the new forecast outlook is positive, it still can turn the share price higher. Also, remember, KNM share was RM2 when the oild price was USD50-USD55 in the passed.

How you know the major oil companies in the world does not have money? To me, they just slow the investment, and equipments supplier market could be more competitive in next 2 years until the economy recover in next 2 years. during this period, it will affected profit from the sales. this may due to the equipments company need to lower the margin but the margin still profitable.

When market closed, this forum is in serious mode as always...

I told myself that if I want to meet my goal, I need to stop monitoring KLSE now and stops all the transaction for 2 years.

After 2 years, I will come back and collect my 2 brand new camry.

Not 100% guarantee but I think it's an achievable. Question is how many of us can do it?

Aiyah, how could KNM be at RM2 when oil price was $50, that RM2 was before rights and bonus issue in 2005 perhaps.

That was ages ago I guess, whereby KNM was still expanding faster than bullet train.... Not a valid comparison at all....

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 9:22 pmKnow this, active oil rigs have declined significantly, and hence, there will be less related equipment demand. Oil companies still have cash reserves, but there will not be any incentive to increase demand for O&G equipment until more rigs are active.

---

Added on May 16, 2009, 9:30 pmhttp://bursastreet.blogspot.com/2009/05/oil-and-gas.html

This post has been edited by teewan: May 16 2009, 09:30 PM

I think if OPEC puts the production level intact later this month, oil may go down to USD50 unless good news come on economy of US.

GM banktuprcy wil be in the limelight as will concern over loan of financial firms.

Of course, you need these uncertain factors to drive down the shares, and certainty to move them up.

O&G service companies are still valued at 20 PEs as they are less susceptible to downturn. Equipment makers are about 10 times. So, KNM's price is comparable to peers and should stay where it is now.

But it is in the nature of shares to overshoot on its way down or up.

http://www.oilandgastoday.com/behind-the-curve/

http://www.oilandgastoday.com/are-happy-da...9re-on-the-way/

thanks CK

---

Added on May 17, 2009, 12:30 amthanks for the sharing .... guys .... thanks a lot ...... teewan and OKW too ...

This post has been edited by v-honda: May 17 2009, 12:32 AM