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 KNM V3

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Joe2009
post May 16 2009, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(CKC (Sense-Maker) @ May 16 2009, 10:54 AM)
The gyration in recent 2 days and again on Monday really has to do with retail sales which have weakened. We knew about this when Warren Buffet said so in Berkshire's AGM some time ago.

Oil price then followed suit and now is USD56+ only. The critical figure to look for in KNM is the net profit margin in Q1 09 as sales values got slashed, amortisation of goodwill and intangibles was RM40m plus a year, I think and effective tax may continue to be higher.

KNM will have to depend on lower interest rate, and lower raw material costs to counter the above. EPS will be an interesting figure to watch.

News on substantial contract is next to none since Aug or Oct 08. It will be bad for the share price if annualised EPS for Q1 09 is below 7.5sen. We will see if it will be over or under 7.5sen next week

Oil price meanwhile cannot fall to below USD53. If that happens KNM may move to 65sen, then we can see another round of sai lang among folks in this forum.
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Haha, quarterly result is the passed result. Do you think today oil price can affected the report? Also KNM is no selling oil, KNM only provide solutions. The report will only affected by his customer investment in oil equipments.
Joe2009
post May 16 2009, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(CKC (Sense-Maker) @ May 16 2009, 02:21 PM)
As said, quarterly results give indication of how well KNM copes with the plunge in global economy,, especially if it can squeeze suppliers the extent it is by the oil majors. EPS gives you that indication. Besides, the top line is important also as it indicates the level of biz activities in recessionary times like these.

KNM's customers are oil majors mainly and oil and gas is still the main contributor of KNM's profit. If your customer has no money because of oil price plunge, do you think it can set aside consistently high capex budget on exploration, etc and place resultant orders with you ordering process equipment. Oil price plunged, capex scaled down, delayed, or cancelled, no need for any new process equipment, and for existing existing equipment already in use, stretch it for longer life through repair and maintenance instead of buying new ones.

Contract normalisation and resumption is still key.
I didn't say you are wrong. just told you the quarterly report will not affected by current oil price. what i want to clarify to you is to corrected your explanation. refer to the past we know the oil price is very low in passed 3 months, mean the report is not that good and may turn into negative. If they have contract signed a year before the market worst, they may still deliver the equipments to customer and close the sales.

The current oil price could affected the share price now, but if the new forecast outlook is positive, it still can turn the share price higher. Also, remember, KNM share was RM2 when the oild price was USD50-USD55 in the passed.

How you know the major oil companies in the world does not have money? To me, they just slow the investment, and equipments supplier market could be more competitive in next 2 years until the economy recover in next 2 years. during this period, it will affected profit from the sales. this may due to the equipments company need to lower the margin but the margin still profitable.

Joe2009
post May 17 2009, 06:12 PM

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KNMG have 3.9billion book order current, is not that bad.
The main worry is when he affort repay the money from Bank that borrow to buy back his shares.
Joe2009
post May 17 2009, 11:22 PM

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Life assurance groups with banking subsidiaries will receive billions of dollars in US government bail-out funds, officials confirmed on Friday, a move experts hope will damp concerns about the financial stability of this sector.
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Stocks to watch on May 18 include IOI Corp, MRCB, Media Prima, Sime, AMMB and Hartalega.
Joe2009
post May 18 2009, 08:08 PM

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Joe2009
post May 19 2009, 07:24 PM

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Only the big shark can give you a high return, people lose money people win money at the same time, where got so much money rolling in the share market. could hold the share untill July. Myself got a very bad feeling after July.
Joe2009
post May 30 2009, 11:55 AM

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Take care, like many companies that want to goreng share price. green in Q1, Q2, Q3 and make a big red in Q4. But i believe the share will continue to rise before Q4. do not put so much hope in Q4 result. predicted the share price could rise to 1.20 anytime. judge your best price to sell your share or keep it.

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