Outline ·
[ Standard ] ·
Linear+
Stock market V23, New PM in the house
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 9 2009, 02:00 PM
|
|
I just thought of something and I'd like to share with you guys. Give me your feedback.
I went to a free preview talk by one of the local traders. She said her trading strategy is to follow the money. Follow the money means following Foreign Funds. From my memory, this is how it works. FF will come in to buy the shares... then goreng it up. At high price, it will slowly sell 80% of its shares. Then the last 20%, it will sell aggressively to make the price fall alot. Small investors will get scared and follow to sell. Then when time is right, the FF will start buying up cheaply again.
I don't know if what she said is true or not. But if it is true, then maybe our market hasn't bottomed yet. This depends on what the FF wants to do.
A few weeks ago, The Star pointed out that the FF has less than 20% equity in the stock market. If what the speaker said is true, then will the FF use this last bit of shares to sell down the market?
Look at Oct 2008. Our market crashed. Many counters price dropped alot. The problem is, at that time, the FF were selling because they wanted to repatriate the capital back to US. Not because they wanted to profit. So even when prices were low, they still sold.
The speaker's analogy: Sell 80% to take profit, then sell 20% to crash the market. What happened: Sold lots of shares to repatriate capital back to US. Now left with less than 20% equity.
What will the FF going to do with the remaining shares? Will they sell down the market, or will they sell these remaining shares at the best price they can get to minimize their losses or maximise their profit? Remember, they didn't profit enough when they sold their earlier shares.
If FF take first action, then market hasn't bottomed yet. If FF takes second action, then likely market has already bottomed.
This post has been edited by simplesmile: Apr 9 2009, 02:02 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 9 2009, 02:23 PM
|
|
QUOTE(aurora97 @ Apr 9 2009, 02:08 PM) i doubt it the local market will be hoodwinked by FF especially when they only control 20% of the equity market for the time being... With ample amunition in stock from the 2nd stimulus pack, soverign funds like EPF, ValueCrap aand so on may have sufficient funds to discourage such attemps to deliberately manipulate the market (on a grand scale). this is however the reverse in the futures market. simplesmile:  by the way good call on LCL, any thoughts of cashing in yet  I cashed out LCL @0.57 today. Waiting to buy back @0.56 but seems like it's not coming down. Unlike yesterday, it was yo-yo up and down. Let's see if it comes down tomorrow. If my plan works out, I end up with an extra 600 shares.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 9 2009, 11:08 PM
|
|
QUOTE(Freelancer @ Apr 9 2009, 10:59 PM) Europe ended green and wall street so far looks good. Hmm.. high possibility for another KLSE rally tomorrow.  KLSe is due for a correction. In fact,... it's long overdue.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 09:22 AM
|
|
WTF, has it broken 930 yet? If yes, then I show hand again.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 09:46 AM
|
|
RUN!! The sky is falling!
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 01:18 PM
|
|
SAD LA! I'm standing on the sidelines watching this bull run. Should I show hand now??!?!
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 01:42 PM
|
|
QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 10 2009, 01:40 PM) Ain't you just "sai lang" days ago or week ago? Show hand again?  I sold all my stocks yesterday. Q lower to buy back but didn't match.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 03:12 PM
|
|
I feel like want to show hand on Heveaboard.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 09:03 PM
|
|
Does anyone know how I can download the closing prices of ALL the counters in KLSE? If not all the counters, at least those on the mainboard.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 10:04 PM
|
|
QUOTE(dsugums @ Apr 10 2009, 09:57 PM) get chartnexus software. its free Thanks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 10 2009, 11:41 PM
|
|
Why is the P/E Of PBB = 7.6 while the P/E of BCB = 13 Is PBB cheaper compared to BCB? Is BCB overvalued because of the Najib factor? People rushing to buy this stock without comparing with other banking stocks?
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 11 2009, 01:15 AM
|
|
In the screenshot below, can anyone explain to me what is "Upper Limit Price" and "Lower Limit Price"? Is this the price that will trigger suspension of the counter? Thank you.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 11 2009, 08:57 AM
|
|
Anybody knows when GM's due to file bankruptcy? I think I'll be staying on the sidelines until then.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 11 2009, 07:23 PM
|
|
Oh boy, I thought I was going to become a millionaire with COMMERZ-CF. Check out my blog.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 12 2009, 06:38 PM
|
|
QUOTE(dsugums @ Apr 10 2009, 09:57 PM) get chartnexus software. its free I got the chartnexus software,... but how do I export the EOD prices into Excel or .txt file?
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 13 2009, 11:27 AM
|
|
Market so steady.... so boring.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 13 2009, 11:59 AM
|
|
Seems like selling pressure in the market has softened.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 14 2009, 05:47 PM
|
|
wth.... another green day. i've sold off my portfolio last week waiting to buy. this rally is much longer than expected. i think market will keep on rally cos of the change in accounting rules in US, banks are reporting higher than expected profits, even though these profits are fake. Market in US has been pushed down by real, fundamental negative news like GM going for bankruptcy. Then the fake financials from banks save the market and push up the market.
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 15 2009, 12:31 PM
|
|
The sell CI isn't falling as much as I expected. Later surely Valuecap, EPF, Sukuk... all continue to pump $$ into the market to prop up the share prices. My guess is CI will defy all odds and close GREEN again. ~Sigh~ Added on April 15, 2009, 12:33 pmQUOTE(mememe12 @ Apr 15 2009, 12:30 PM) swt.. sai lang is selling hor.. =.='' Actually sai lang means "all in". Like when you bet all your chips in a poker game. This post has been edited by simplesmile: Apr 15 2009, 12:33 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
simplesmile
|
Apr 15 2009, 11:07 PM
|
|
QUOTE(kb2005 @ Apr 15 2009, 10:59 PM) Hard to predict. If it sustain until end of the day, that will be good for our market tmr. Don't worry. Our KLSE will end in green tomorrow. It's too important to fail, if you know what I mean.
|
|
|
|
|