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 Stock market V21, Huge Stimulus Age

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cherroy
post Feb 26 2009, 11:15 PM

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Panamy has released its lastest Q report, accumulated 3Q of EPS is 68 cents. March 31 will be its final 4th quarter, by then some dividend can be expected. brows.gif
cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Feb 27 2009, 07:51 AM)
whether it's time to dig out the fixed deposits for shares:
2 sides of an opinion, interesting as a food for thought hmm.gif
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QUOTE(sampoo @ Feb 27 2009, 09:17 AM)
i agree, 储备金 and 棺材本 should not use for gambling. If u lost it, ur life may lost all together. think twice.  smile.gif
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It is only applicable to excess FD one has.

Never use some saving that is essential and needed for stock market because stock market you can't control the timing of liquidation because even though the good share you bought will go up in the long term future, but if you cannot wait for it, then it is not good at all.

No one knows how long the recession will be. It can be 1 year, can be 3 years even 5 years before any recovery in economy start to taking place.

But one thing for sure, economy won't be doom forever, economy boom and burst is always cyclical.

Don't over optimistic about stock market to recover quickly, but also don't overly pessimistic as overly pessimistic will only mean one is going to miss in taking advantage of the burst cycle.
cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 27 2009, 11:45 AM)
TMI wants to change name!  sweat.gif

"6888    TMI    TM INTERNATIONAL BHD 
PROPOSED CHANGE OF COMPANYS NAME 

PROPOSED CHANGE OF COMPANYS NAME
TM International Berhad (TMI) wishes to announce that the Board of Directors of
TMI had today approved the proposal on the change of the companys name from TM
International Berhad to Axiata Group Berhad ("Proposed Change of Name).

The request for availability of the name Axiata Group Berhad had been approved
by the Companies Commission of Malaysia ("CCM"). The Proposed Change of Name is
subject to the approval of the shareholders of TMI at an Extraordinary General
Meeting to be convened."

=======================

yerrr, damn ghey la the name...  doh.gif

it is not a good thing for a company which keep changing their name/identity.
*
alamak, what a weird name it is. Axiata? what's that name come from. rclxub.gif

Good reputable company doesn't need/want to change name, in fact the name itself is the selling point of it.
Like Genting, IOI, Guiness, Resort, Public bank.
Only some change name because of ease or people use to call it in short form like Maybank, PPB.
For those change name due to totally corporate restructure or merger then it is justified.

Hey, TMI name only last almost a year only, now want to change it again? It somehow just expose no proper and in depth planning in the first place.
Even changing letter head and documentation simply by a name change also cost a few ten up to hundred of thousand even million if involved in large organisation like TMI.

Or just want somebody to forget its name due to whatever reason? whistling.gif joking only.



cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 02:22 PM

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TMI will undergo right issue, so not a particular good new for TMI shareholders.

So good for TM, bad for TMI.

Take extra money from TMI shareholders money to pay and enable TM to give capital repayment.

I would have a little bit doubt on the right issue that it will not be fully subscribed if being price at too high. If price at too low, then no sufficient money being raised.
Anyhow, both also bad for its current share price.


cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 03:32 PM

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FF is selling again? sweat.gif
cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Feb 27 2009, 03:57 PM)
wow.... really? how come BJTOTO share price is going south?
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Bjtoto had undergone massive capital repayment previously (Par value is 0.10), which left nothing much in the company coffer. In fact Bjtoto previous has need to raise bond because of massive dividend and capital repayment.

They had no ability (cash) to pay those 1.10 special dividend except through bond issue or raising debt (which is a stupid idea to raise debt to pay special dividend), no offence. Its NTA is only 0.3x sum up the total asset level in the company

Their ability of giving out dividend come from operational profit.

In fact, its is the dividend yield that support the share price.

I don't know how the analysts can come out an idea of it can pay 1.10 special dividend then.

Yes, it can do so (1.10 special dividend) if it wants to bail out its parent company (Bjland) but this is a disastrous news for Bjtoto shareholders because company need to raise massive debt to finance it.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 27 2009, 04:24 PM
cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 04:48 PM

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Massive selling pressure and massive selling Q for TCP computation! >100K lot. sweat.gif

1/4 of the total market volume is KNM. shocking.gif
cherroy
post Feb 27 2009, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Feb 27 2009, 05:04 PM)
Ic..... thanks for pointing that out..... next time i will not be trapped by those generous capt. repayment & special div anymore without looking at their financial strength  smile.gif <old bird really has vast experience>  notworthy.gif  tongue.gif
btw, is NTA = NAV = book value? tongue.gif


Added on February 27, 2009, 5:08 pm
will it crash the BTS? tongue.gif
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BJtoto sustainability to pay dividend is around 30+ cents which is based on its profitabity.

It is still a good dividend stock but company actually having not much in the coffer already. But due to its nature of its business highly profitability and constant positive cashflow, its dividend should be able to remain, the most is dropping a bit due to recession.

Almost identical.
In stock, NTA.
In reit, NAV.

KNM tries to test whether BTS can handle those kind of volume biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Feb 28 2009, 10:41 AM

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Guiness reported another good Q result.
Good dividend can be expected at its full year financial report (June).

It just somehow shows that they are eating the marke share of Carlsberg (which showed poor result). Previously Carlsberg is the one dominant in the beer market which accounted more than half of the market share. Now become reversed.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...20&sec=business

Don't mean to recommend anything.
cherroy
post Feb 28 2009, 01:41 PM

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To be precise, any stimulus, interest rate cut, measures, take sometimes for its effect to be channelled into the real economy, so we will only see the effect (whether it is effective or not, is another issue), after months even 6 months down the road.

It is not an instant process. Just like suprime crisis unfold time, it took about a year before everything start to be revealed and exposed its true severity.
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Ranny @ Mar 2 2009, 09:28 AM)
the par value will not be affected. It will remain the same. Only the number of shares will increase.
I dont like this move actually. If a company is financially sound and healthy, why should the company asking the public for fund?!
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Yes, you are right. Right issue never good for existing shareholders, unless some special circumstance (like acquiring some good profitable business which need extra fund to fund it).

QUOTE(htt @ Mar 2 2009, 09:38 AM)
I think the price should be in range of RM2.70~RM3.30.
The par value will remain the same (they have no problem paying RM1 par value with even RM2.70 tongue.gif ).
Existing shareholders' shareholding won't be diluted if they subscribe to the right.
*
But existing shareholders need to fork out extra money on it. icon_idea.gif
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Mar 2 2009, 09:53 AM)
wow.... that's pretty unfair huh? it's like forcing the existing shareholders to subscribe..... but i'm kind of confuse here...... with the extra no. of shares being issued, how did they maintain the RM1 par value?  hmm.gif
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The paid up capital is increased in process of the right issue. So Par value won't be affected.

Just like ABC company has 1 million share with Par value Rm1. So paid up capital is 1 million. Now it issued another 1 million which existing shareholders fork out extra money (1 million) on it and now the paid up become 2 million with 2 million of shares.



cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Mar 2 2009, 10:09 AM)
i see.... so they are only raising the capital from the existing shareholders huh? wat if nobody is willing to subscribe? tongue.gif
BTW, GENTING 3.38 now!!!!  shocking.gif
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If the right issue cannot fully placed out or subscribed, then share price will tank. Because right issue mean company need money, no money then company cash situation is under risk.

QUOTE(htt @ Mar 2 2009, 10:25 AM)
If you have ordinary share and don't want to subscribe, I might want to take your share... haha... they issue in discount so people cannot say don't want to buy (subscribe mean no win no loss, not subscribe loss immediately).
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For those don't want to subscribe, it is best to dispose before its ex-date. Because share price will adjusted according to the differentiation between current share price and its right issue price.
If hold after ex-date of right issue, and don't want to subscribe, existing shareholders will be losing big time, unless the right issue price is higher than share price in the market at that time.

cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Mar 2 2009, 10:27 AM)
must be some really bad news out there, most likely corporate results spooked all the FF to swing into full gear of massive selling.. (although volume wise it looks like its pretty thin.)

A sign of weakness in the Plantation sector...
look at crude oil btw, its slumping faster than expected... should hit 1700 +/- within this week alone.

March Mega Sale?
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More because of news last Friday.
Because Malaysia GDP for 4th Q is only 0.1%, Bare in mind, 4th Q is still not that bad for business out there. Current situation is worse than 4th Q. So Malaysia GDP very high probably will in contraction in 1Q 2009.

Plantation stock especially for the like Sime should go down more. It is holding too extra-ordinary well.

But sellling is light only across.

Market is spooked by TMI need to have 5.2 billions right issue, and at least 5 billion + from Maybank as well. Means they need to suck in at least 10 billion of money in the market.
I am a bit worry about those right issue response.

Recent news regarding AIG needing more TARP money just show they are in deep trouble which remind the whole world market, the crisis is very very severe. If not bailout by US gov, almost entire financial system and condition would be nearly collapse.
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Mar 2 2009, 11:16 AM)
talking about the only 0.1% growth, I was suspecting probably 0% growth in last quarter 2008, but that will mean recession ringing in our ears in next quarter! Play with numbers.
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With this 0.1%, only after 3rd Q 2009, only then Malaysia can be officially called recession. whistling.gif

This is pure academic only which make no different in real economy. We all know recession is in place already.
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 2 2009, 11:38 AM)
hmm i think alot of ppl are waiting for Dow Jones go below 7,000 mark tonite rolleyes.gif
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DJ futures aleady did. biggrin.gif

The news of AIG could send the DJ to open below 7000.
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 04:02 PM

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Nobody want to shop or plan to shop?

Can start planning for next phase of downturn.
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:01 PM)
my suggestion is just continue to talk three and talk four, watch the index also no use all so red now..

My 2 cents worth, today down by 20 pts whats the likelyhood that its going to rush back up? Anyways 20 pts is really not that bad, unlikely to resemble anything close to a Nov/Dec 08 now thats a crash... the current one is just peanuts.

should be interesting if it KLCI ever hits 500 pts?
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500 is pretty bad already.

My personal opinion, KLCI should stand around 700~800 which is more a in-line level with most major bourses.
Especially for Sime, should below 5.00 already.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 2 2009, 04:05 PM
cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Mar 2 2009, 04:04 PM)
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

Ladies and gentleman, we r in recession mode.

time to buy extra food stocks, safe up those pennies and dollars, tighten those belts and eat grass if necessary.
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Aiya, all people already knew recession already in, ain't electronic company only work 4 days a week only and VSS around.

Aiseh, we are not entering war ler, don't need until buy extra food stocks to store in house during recession. The chance of goods price going down is high during recession. icon_rolleyes.gif


cherroy
post Mar 2 2009, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Mar 2 2009, 04:07 PM)
In my opinion, i think its possible to hit 500pts, but not this year, maybe next year.  wink.gif
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I don't rule out it will or it will not.
Just if it hit, either economy is contracting at the pace of more than 5% in the next 2 years or if not, (GDP just contracting 1-3%) then this is a bargain level already.

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