The Ox will kick up lots of dust

Don’t get charged up in the coming year even if the Ox signifies prosperity through fortitude and hard work. Most people believe the year of the Ox, the second animal in the 12-year cycle of the Chinese zodiac, promises only more pain and toil.

With countries like the US, UK, Singapore and Japan already starting the year in recession, a bull run isn’t to be expected in the local stock market anytime soon.

Previous Ox years proved to be rather bearish years. In 1997, there was the Asian financial crisis. 1985 was the year Singapore went into recession and the Pan-Electric crisis halted trading on the Singapore stock exchange. Then, there was the oil crisis in 1973, which caused the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) to proclaim an oil embargo.

Year 2009 will be the year of the Earth Ox, and generally the Earth is considered a very slow and non-moving element. “It can mean that there will be fewer earth-shattering incidents in 2009,” said Henry Fong, a feng shui consultant.

As 2008 draws to a close, The Edge Financial Daily takes a look at what Fong and Joey Yap, another feng shui consultant, have to say about the Earth Ox year, which starts on Feb 4, coinciding with the beginning of spring.

A bull market — not!
As mentioned, Earth is a non-moving element, and it is also a deteriorating type of element for 2009. It seems all is not well for the Ox year’s stock market. Even our feng shui masters are sceptical of any kind of growth.

“This will affect the stock market in terms of fear. Investors, in general, are feeling afraid, confused and uncertain. This doesn’t bode well for the stock market. We are likely to see a sideways growth in the stock market,” Yap said.

Fong added that both the stem and branch in the geomancy map are Yin-based, which imply a lack of harmony (Yin with Yang is harmonious). “Since Yin also means quietness and earth, I would think that the stock market is likely to trend sideways (quiet) and downward (down to earth),” Fong said.

Fong said it would be difficult to pinpoint particular stocks to invest in as people would essentially have a hand at manipulating the stock market.

He also advised investors not to speculate but to take a longer-term view and approach in buying stocks with the same down-to-earth approach as the Ox.

“We haven’t seen the full brunt of the Ox year yet. So the best precautionary method is to adopt the ‘wait-and-see’ attitude,” Yap said, noting that investors should be thinking about the long-term future and potential, instead of short term, and get back to the fundamentals.

Silver lining of a gloomy prospect
It has been repeated time and again that the worst of the economic crisis is yet to come and 2009 would only deteriorate further moving forward. Both Yap and Fong agreed that the year would indeed progress without much sign of recovery.

Yap said the economy in general would be stagnant, with a slow growth in the best-case scenario. “There might be a slight optimism at the start of the year due to perceived opportunities, but ultimately the second half of the year indicates more volatile market conditions,” he said.

However, while many expect year 2009 to be all gloom and doom, the feng shui experts said there is hope yet for several industries.

“Earth-based industries such as farming and ceramic wares should be stable. Construction and property development are also Earth industries, but the performance of these industries is also dependent on consumer demands,” Fong said.

Fong said Fire and Metal industries would also perform relatively well due to their harmonious relation with Earth. Examples of Fire industries are electrical products, restaurants, power, liquefied natural gas-based industries and advertising while Metal industries include machinery, bank and stock exchanges.

Meanwhile, Fong cautioned that the Wood and Water industries, which are not in harmony with earth, would face greater challenges next year. Examples of wood industries are education, publishing, printing, paper and furniture while Water industries include fishing, shipping, beverages and transportation.

On the other hand, Yap said that industries tied to the Wood element — these would be the plantation, farming and agriculture industries — would do well in the Earth Ox year. “These would still be the industries that are the strongest in the coming year,” he said.

“The education and academic sectors will also continue to do well. This is because people will be considering one particular mode of investment over all other kinds, including assets, finance, and property — that is, they will be primarily concerned with self-investment,” Yap added.

Yap said the Metal element, represented by the financial and banking industries, would be most affected next year.

“In fact, banks should consider becoming more service-oriented. Financial consulting would probably be a better bet in 2009, rather than continuing to focus solely on providing financial solutions, or playing in equities, or such like. They should focus on leveraging in order to see any sort of results,” he said.

Global events and happenings
With Earth and the hidden Fire element ruling our fortunes next year, a rise in fire and earth-related disasters can be expected.

“With so much Earth and Fire, the year lacks Water and we can expect dry weather and drought-like conditions especially in areas that are already lacking in water, such as desert and arid areas. Also without water, there is a higher chance of fire disaster. With so much earth, there is also a higher chance of earth-related disaster like earthquakes and building collapsing,” Fong said.

Furthermore, Yap said that more dirty laundry would be aired in public next year, dragging down key leadership of corporations.

“We’re likely to see a lot of disgruntlement and unhappiness with the key leadership and management of large companies. People will be demanding a change… and the likelihood is, there will be lots of changes,” Yap said.

He also said the Earth Ox year would see more people keen to play the role of victims. “They might be inclined to simply sit back and expect help — even when they’re in the position to help themselves (as displayed by industry bigwigs like General Motors and Chrysler),” Yap said.

“Generally, it will be a somewhat unpleasant year” was Yap’s simple way of describing 2009.

Come what may in 2009, perhaps we may find solace in the thought that what goes down must come back up. If we follow the Chinese zodiac in a 12-year cycle, then, we will find that history will be repeated every 12 years.

And historically, the year of the Tiger, which is after the Ox, is a year for recovery after hitting rock bottom. So the good times will come again, sooner or later, and all will be put to right as rain. In the mean time, sit tight, buckle up and charge through the bull year.

For more on Fong and Yap, visit www.henryfong.com or www.joeyyap.com

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