QUOTE(small-jeff @ Feb 10 2009, 09:12 PM)
Txi, I believe what stated above, is also happening/happened in US as well, being at a worse state than in UK. Not to forget, US still has an additional problem for its USD, the Treasuries. US and UK are increasing their money supply, however, US supply outpaced UK. In a race of running down hill, so far USD is still leading the race.
Equities - Bonds - Commodities: Cycle of money. Why Dow would affect the USD, simple answer, Risk Appetite. In the situation today, Dow does affect the performance of USD.
the time you said GBP/USD to go down was at 1.4810, after market close.
Added on February 10, 2009, 8:14 pmlooking at T-Bill alone (3 months), it has declined from around 0.27 to 0.31 (now)
You need to read up international reserve currency or scroll both Cherroy and I have explained this.
Not to me : $ going into the Dow on any 1 day is mickey mouse , how much a billion or 2 ?
Compared how much is in supply globally 30-40 T . Better to follow the moneycenter banks if you want to follow the $$ , but then again you need a direct line to their trading desk .
NO check my 1st post and [B]the FX does NOT close it is 24 hrAlso I am not here to convince you or anyone and I don't view it as any competition as some people in the tradeworld might. It matters 0 to me other people win or lose . It is me VS the market . The market is anonymous and NOT anyone in particular. Everyone should form their own view
[/b]
have a good trading day.
Added on February 11, 2009, 3:36 amQUOTE(kelvin_tan @ Feb 10 2009, 09:33 PM)
@TXI
i beg to differ that we small traders cannot take 100 pips stop loss. It depends on are you a scalper or a position trader. Personally my stop loss is at 200 pips with my TP at 288 as I am a position trader. Heck i've even had -150 pips before it came +200. My point on Soros is he moves the market if he shorts as you said due to the volume he trades but since he has STOPPED shorting GBP/USD the movement downwards has been eradicated if not reduced significantly.
You mentioned "Dow moves on their own have no real bearing on the $ , Dow can go up $ can stay the same or go down or up . D moves down , if in panic times , $ may even go up as people go to treasuries. In normal times , no effect. "
Dow was at 14k when EU was at 1.61... now that EU is at 1.30 Dow is at 8k++. GU was at 2.00 when dow was 14k and now 1.49 when dow is 8k. No correlation? mere coincidence? I agree Dow DOES SOMETIMES move on its own though.
You asked us to short GBP/USD and during that time GBP/USD was at 1.48100 and it shot up to 1.49850 before it came down to the current levels of 1.48000. U mentioned small traders cannot take 100 pips stop loss. So what are we argueing about now? I assume you are also a small trader (correct me if i'm wrong) and you would have been stopped out because you couldn't take 100 pips stop loss. So why asking us to short GBP/USD ? your own system would have failed you and it doesn't necessarily accomodate other ppls trading strategies.
This is not meant to be personal or anything but even other forumers in this particular forex discussion have a problem with the way you express yourself although its not against the rules of this forums. As I mentioned earlier you trade yours I trade mine. Discussions in this manner will only lead to flames once more because we each believe in our own analysis but not debated properly.
Good day to you and happy pipping.
If your SL is 200 and your TP @ 288 , the reward to risk is less than 1.5 : 1
That's a very low R:R for me , I would never accept anything less than 3/4:1 or if I wold have a 200 pip SL I would look for + 500-1000 pip. I would never take -150 pips before it came +20 , too small Rew:risk for me.
Now I said for me , if you happy with what you do , then good for you , go for it .
Please don't argue as I am happy with my way and I am NOT trying to change you , and happy you have a found your way .
So you KNOW Soros has stopped shorting GBP ...... mmmmm ok ...
Dow at 14000 ? that was years ago , experience trader like u knows FX moves damn fast , what is applibable last week may not be this week , never mind last year .
You only seem to be a selective reader
1st off , these are only tips to ME , everyone should their own view and I am certainly NOT asking you to follow.
You are confusing SL with TPs , as I said you could have made 100 pips profit when it fell from 1.4850 to under 1.4870 , that is a TP not a stop loss , experience trader like u should know that .
I said again after it went back up over 1.4900 that it would come down again.
Where is it now ? 1.44..... it's dying
good luck with your trades
Added on February 11, 2009, 3:58 amQUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 10 2009, 10:02 PM)
@TXI,
Forumers just want this kind of discussion, instead of plainly said which pair will tank or not while this thread intention is not to argue who is right or wrong.
There is no definite right or wrong, market is unpredictable. We only know it is right or wrong after the event happens. By no mean even if our theory or TA is good, there is no guarantee market behave or movement is something we are predicting. There may be some unforseen circumstance we might not aware of, or some event happen out of expectation.
Hope any further discussion is carried out with friendly mood all the time.
The one distinct advantage of USD over GBP is that USD won't short of demand if financial market is in turmoil, but it is not the case for GBP. So US can print massive amount of money, but there is demand for it to offset the supply (which is happening recently and right now), while GBP doesn't have the luxury that USD has.
GBP as reserves currency is no longer as same/shine as 20 to 30 years back time.
We are in extra-ordinary circumstance since September 2008. Only when everything back to normal, we probably will see USD sliding down which by right, it should based on fundamental.
Just my 2 cents.

Yes I do agree , hope you can see that I have been trying to push the chat back to FX.
True about the USD .
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Just for the record :
I said on # 489 [ Feb 6 2009 11.52 pm ] to get ready short GBP and then again
#513 [ Feb 7 2009 5.40 am ] to wait for a double or triple top and then short
Confirmed again in #557 [ Feb 9 2009 11.24pm]
Please see what happened
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBPUSD=...ource=undefinedThis post has been edited by Txi: Feb 11 2009, 04:20 AM