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 Stock Market V18, Stock Market Chit Chat

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kmarc
post Dec 5 2008, 10:33 PM

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As predicted by many experts around the globe, world economy will probably get worst before any signs of recovery is evident....

Looking at recent news, I think we should save our bullets for now.... let the market drop further before going in again....

Anybody has any other opinion? hmm.gif
kmarc
post Dec 5 2008, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(wirelessdude @ Dec 5 2008, 11:12 PM)
Nobody really knows. Now we're waiting for the BRIC economies to save us. If China also collapses then sayonara - there's already social unrests in certain parts of China, e.g. retrenched workers burned a toy factory in Guandong.
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I understand the fact that nobody knows. It's just that looking at recent news and the predictions made, the bottom probably hasn't arrived yet.... giving us more time to accumulate more bullets..... biggrin.gif

QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2008, 11:27 PM)
If everyone also see the worst is coming, that's mean it can't more worst <--- get what I mean.
Just like you expect the person to score 1 point out of 100, then it can't get more worst unless getting zero only.  biggrin.gif

Market reach generally bottom when everyone is losing hope on the market.

The severity of the economy recession might prolong the bear market for awhile, so any investment should be expected to be a long term in the first place, it is a bit unrealistic to see quick recovery. Short term technical rebound/hope which spur the market may be, but not a bull market.

Anyway, anyone can start V19 already. V18 reaching 2500 posts.
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I wouldn't exactly say it is 1 point out of 100, maybe 10 out of 100...... leaving the last 10 points to fall before the market gets better.....

Anyway, I'm already out of bullets blush.gif ... have to wait another 2 weeks before I can restock.... Hope I still have time (highly likely) to catch the bottom by DCA-ing.....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 5 2008, 11:37 PM
kmarc
post Dec 6 2008, 12:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2008, 11:50 PM)
High probably we will see market flat for sometimes (just like recent market), before the market can stage any meaningful recovery.

Don't need to find the bottom, buy low is already good enough for long term investment. Applicable to good fundamental stocks only.

Anything you buy currently is way way better off (30%, 50% discount) than those bought several months ago. Those bought several months ago already envy your current buying price, even though you might make a loss currently. biggrin.gif
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Yeah, I feel lucky that I started trading recently and not before everything came crashing down.... even with my late entry, I'm still making losses on paper but like you pointed out, it should be good enough for long term investment......

QUOTE(aoisky @ Dec 5 2008, 11:51 PM)
I'd seen quite a lot of these joker in trading, selling at 1 lot how can they earn $
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They are just manipulating the prices, and making us pay commisions!!! vmad.gif


QUOTE(wirelessdude @ Dec 5 2008, 11:55 PM)
I don't think we're at 10 either. I'd continue DCA-ing and only go in fully when the market trades sideways on low volume for an extended period. This way, all the bads news are probably already priced in and lots of money waiting on the sidelines to come back in.
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What would your view be on the scale of 100? Would be interested to know. smile.gif

Yeah, gonna DCA too but will have to increase my intervals of DCA (e.g. drop 10%, instead of 5%) before buying another round of the same stocks) as prices seems to keep on dropping...... sweat.gif Looks like KLSE might go below the lows of Oct 28....

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 6 2008, 01:03 AM
kmarc
post Dec 6 2008, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(SImPle PLan @ Dec 6 2008, 03:49 AM)
I wish to share my knowledge wif u all or at least discuss wif u all abt the stock market movement.
Accordin to my info, stock market is a leadin indicator of the economy. Which means the how is the economy condition after 6mths, it will be alredi reflected by stock market for now.
Stock market fully reflected all known information available for the public.
This is the main reason why normal investors always have tis kind of problem such as buying/selling too late and too soon.
This situation happen when v read newspaper and saw multiple badnews such as rising unemployment rate and recession, market tend not to drop much after tat and sometimes instead rise. So does wif gud news.
We based on the current information available would not able to make any profit from the stock market as the prices alredi factored in the news available. As it has alredi indicates the economy for six months further.

Therefore i can say tat no 1 actually noe the movement of the stock market. Economy maybe bad for next year but stock market would not necessary mimic tat as every1 has expected economy to drop next year so probably the stock market has alredi factored in the gloomy expectation.

Warren Buffett has also said recently when he purchased shares, he told the investors to buy now as every1 is fear and economy is alredi in recession. He said tat no point waiting for economy to recover to buy as tat time the stock market alredi recovers thus leavin u buyin late.
The greed when ppl fear and vice versa applies here.
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It is a well-known fact that nobody knows the movement of the stock market and no one can predict the future. From what I have read (and if I understand it correctly), stocks usually start to recover 3-6 months before the economy. If the economy starts to recover in 6 months time, these 3 months could be the best time to buy stocks!

One of the factors why some people fear buying stocks at the moment is because they are afraid the company might just go bust, making the shares they hold become junk. However, I guess if you buy blue chips shares, the risk would be extremely low?

This article describes well the current situation : http://www.cnbc.com/id/28070601

QUOTE(wirelessdude @ Dec 6 2008, 07:12 AM)
Yup, Aussie dollar swung from RM2.30 to RM2.35 ...incredible!


Added on December 6, 2008, 7:29 am

To be really honest, I don't have a clue because the situation now is very fluid - giving you a number would be just like plucking one from the air.

That's why Adam could predict the "DOW will be bloody red tonight" but it went on a 5 day rally instead. Advised us to sell stocks and Aussie before OPEC's meeting on Friday, but OPEC decided not to implement any cuts instead. It's not entirely his fault because it's so difficult to make predictions now that even top fund managers are losing profusely, what more retailers like us - though I wish he'd be more humble after making mistakes than still be cocky.

Back home, it's not just people feeling pessimistic. Giants like Infineon, who employs 5000 people in my town, has cut production to 5 1/2 day week - never before in its history, while engineers at NS are now working 3 day week. Because of our new political situation, the government can just suddenly implement new policies, e.g. windfall tax.

How low? During the 97/98 crisis, I think most of you will remember that KLCI dropped all the way to 250! Well, we're not even at 800 yet. smile.gif
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Yeah, I do understand what you mean as I was already reading his "posts" before I started becoming active in this thread. I actually pm-ed him once to seek advice but he didn't even replied! Either he didn't see my pm or he was only interested in forumers whom he can earn commissions from. Anyway, I'm speculating so please forgive me. Will not mention it again. icon_rolleyes.gif

Yeah, I can always remember the 97/98 crises when shares were so damn cheap..... Couldn't buy any as I just started working! cry.gif

Say, did any company go bust during the 97/98 period and their shares become toilet paper? hmm.gif

Anyway, isn't it time for V19? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by kmarc: Dec 6 2008, 09:04 AM

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