QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 9 2008, 12:08 AM)
IMO, Malaysia is in NOT the recession yet.. not by any outlook at the moment, even for the next 6-12 months.
Yes, we're seeing slow down in factories orders, our citizens are facing retrenchment across Singapore and huge number will come back but I think a large number of those will be absorbed back locally due to those on going projects already in place. Their salary may dwindle a bit but everybody will still have food on the table and not losing their homes. Perhaps our inflation may continue to go up due to rising import costs and these are some of the things we can cut back.
We may see more repatriation of foreign workers back their own country if our economy slows down because we may not need much of them around anymore and our own citizens need the work - it depends on our business and govt priority - this is when we need to hire more locally.
As for growth.. I think we may see drops perhaps to as low as 2% for following year if other countries have not recover yet. Belts are tightening.. but not in dire straits yet.

So don't panic yet.. continue to invest in the market and profit!
For all we know, we may not see any repatriation of foreign workers back to their own country simply because none or less Malaysians are willing to work for lowerly paid salary job. IMHO, it is natural thing for developing or developed countries to hire foreign to fill the gaps in area where it is routine and lowly paid. This is where the citizen can move up the 'salary chain' earning extra by providing better services/knowledge-required skills. We can't run away from this vicious cycle, just look at US, UK, Germany, SG, etc. Their citizens hardly work in industry such as waste-disposal though it might offer a decent salary. The problem with Malaysia is that most of our citizen actually more or less have the same qualification, if not worse, than most foreign workers (read: from India perhaps) yet they demand higher salary. So we simply can't repatriate foreigh workers back during worse time like now.
IMHO, this poisonous situation/problem simply the fruit we sow by not planting a good education system.
QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Nov 9 2008, 01:07 AM)
The question i have is how do you finance a 5% deficit if you cut interest rates?
What's Malaysia to do? How do you generate enough income to narrow the fiscal deficit without taxing your citizens?
Stimulus package? Dig yourself deeper in debt like US of A? The whole problem with the states is because of the dual fiscal and trade deficit. The government itself is setting a bad example. Spend the money you dont have? Borrow from the future generation and then pay later?
Honestly, who benefits when oil and commodity prices increases? I don't see you and i actually making more? Maybe in stocks yes, but who else benefit?
Sorry, i don't share the same view. I am with Dreamer101.
Very well said. Not many people realise/understand what caused the current financial turmoil in US and some simply applaud the government dished out stimulus packages thinking that it will save their ass. Well, I hope they got it right and be prepared for the worse. I feel that the RM7B stimulus package our government has proposed is as good as being thrown into the dark deep muddy sea. It might not help any of us but it might help some big fish swimming for calmer water (read: bail-out?).
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 9 2008, 04:26 AM)
But, EPF IS saving, 33% in total still count. It is just that we can't touch the EPF money until we are retired. Without EPF, I say most retirees will already have to live on welfare (or more 'pokai' on the streets). I guess some people will go broke too because they're stupid enough to withdraw them early even before they've retired and has no alternate savings or sustain income beyond their retirement. Average Malaysians now with good health care can live over 70s..even 80s.. I must admit I have no clue what those people will do if they burned all their EPF savings with a single lump sum withdrawal when they only reach 55/56.
Added on November 9, 2008, 4:38 amIMO,
Malaysia just need to be more productive that all. Need to produce more stuff that we all need and other countries need. In lean time where industrial, services and constructions are going downhill, Malaysia being still only 10% still agri based, Malaysia can definitely increase our food production even more. Modernize our farming equipment, factories, etc
sell more agri and food products instead of oil to make up the difference.
As for increasing productivity..Education sector needs to play a vital role and we need to overhaul our entire education system in Malaysia. They're err..I must admit is in pretty bad shape, our local graduates can't compete with the demand of tomorrow business needs - even in agriculture industry.
..As for equity and stocks.. yeahh.. I love 'em. We will continue to profit from those who are fearful.
Being productive is good but we still lack of the ingredient such as effective, efficient and top quality. Being able to mass produce everything under the sun but subjected to low quality and worse still ineffective and inefficient will lead to more wastage and encourage more duit-kopi. Few days back, I read in TheSTAR that some minister/MP actually commented and realised that a country that is not effective and efficient actually encourage more duit-kopi. So, can we say we somehow know/realise why the duit-kopi is so widely used in Malaysia?
Wanted to read, mingle, share and learn more for everyone here but my schedule lately is just killing me.
Added on November 10, 2008, 10:08 amQUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 10 2008, 09:42 AM)
It depends what job market segment. On lower ended job, therea are plenty which currently being filled by foreign workers.
Malaysia economy is not yet reach the state of require massive middle and upper range of job, but it has plenty of lower end job around, that's why millions of foreign workers are needed from restaurant, construction, to labour intensive job like plantation etc.
There are some fundamental problem in Malaysia economy need to be tackled.
We might have too many university graduate but not enough skillful worker and technician around.
In real world, graduate is not equal to skillful employee.
We might be having lot of Rm1K job per month one, but few 3K and above. But Malaysian thinks they deserve the 3-5K one, sorry no offence.
There are more people willing remain unemployed rather than work part time or work in the 1K job first. May be younger generation nowadays are more pampered by the parents. Again no offence, it doesn't apply across, just had seen a lot of examples around.
Oh, you have already mentioned this while I was slowly typing my opinion.
This post has been edited by cantdecide: Nov 10 2008, 10:08 AM