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 Stock market V17, Aftermath of Oct depression

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AdamG1981
post Nov 9 2008, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Nov 8 2008, 11:04 PM)
Disclaimer:

Predictions, advise and forecast ("statements") given by Aurora97 are merely random statements that may or may not be based on facts, possibly fictitious scenario's, not fact checked and not well thought through. Users/Forumners whom choose to use such statements for the purpose of investment should do so at their own risk.
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LOL......... nice one.

hey wireless dude, where's the 1000 point drop on friday? Wah, those who short based on wireless dudes comment sure die kau kau. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Nov 9 2008, 05:25 PM
Oracles99
post Nov 9 2008, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Nov 9 2008, 01:07 AM)
The question i have is how do you finance a 5% deficit if you cut interest rates?

What's Malaysia to do? How do you generate enough income to narrow the fiscal deficit without taxing your citizens?

Stimulus package? Dig yourself deeper in debt like US of A? The whole problem with the states is because of the dual fiscal and trade deficit. The government itself is setting a bad example. Spend the money you dont have? Borrow from the future generation and then pay later?

Honestly, who benefits when oil and commodity prices increases? I don't see you and i actually making more? Maybe in stocks yes, but who else benefit?

Sorry, i don't share the same view. I am with Dreamer101.
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Japan's national debt is now at 150% of GDP n of course a concern has been raised that this may leave a heavy burden for generations to come.
But interest rates (near zero percent) did not rise for the past 15 years in spite of the massive fiscal spending.

Another example is UK in 1945 where government debt was 250% of GDP but this did not cause the nation to disappear from the economic map of the world.

As to "borrowing from future gnerations", it is much better if they inherit an economy that is on the mend.

It is hoped that OPEC would come to their senses n not to squeeze production in these trying times. Zaki Yamani who was the former oil minister of Saudi Arabia during the oil embargo of 1973 said, "the stone age ended not for the want of stones and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil."
He is saying that an unreasonable pricing of oil will push technology at a breakneck speed such that oil will become obselete.

Have a nice day.


wirelessdude
post Nov 9 2008, 09:00 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Nov 9 2008, 05:23 PM)
hey wireless dude, where's the 1000 point drop on friday? Wah, those who short based on wireless dudes comment sure die kau kau.  laugh.gif
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Unlike you, I've never made statements like market will rise 1,000 points or there'll be a super bear rally because of obama win. Check my posts and get your facts right.

Even if I did, you don't lose money from being careful. But you'll lose your shirt by being overly optimistic.

I'm never 100% out of the market because I'm diversified with different investments and across different classes and geographic regions. I'm an old hand. Not many forumers here have the benefits of long experience or lots of savings to average down. We just had newbies asking about T+3 and Mesdaq.

That's why I said what I did.

Like I said, get over it and move on.

Peace out. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by wirelessdude: Nov 9 2008, 09:41 PM
wodenus
post Nov 9 2008, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Nov 9 2008, 08:04 AM)
It may take 5 to 10 years to recover from the next recession if we EVER recover.  Our economic fundamental are VERY BAD.


Absolutely. We are all going to hell in a handbasket, aren't we? smile.gif all these young people lining up to buy the Xbox 360, spending hundreds if not thousands on games alone, someone tell them that the economy is VERY BAD, they can't have heard the news smile.gif

I think if we do that, they will disappear in a puff of logic. Logically speaking, in a VERY BAD economy, kids don't spend thousands on computer games and line up for ages to get the latest consoles. So they must be some kind of mirage.
mindhacking
post Nov 10 2008, 12:09 AM

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Interesting Pic I found on a blog that might relate to the current market tongue.gif
user posted image

SUSSPS
post Nov 10 2008, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Nov 9 2008, 11:49 PM)
Absolutely. We are all going to hell in a handbasket, aren't we? smile.gif all these young people lining up to buy the Xbox 360, spending hundreds if not thousands on games alone, someone tell them that the economy is VERY BAD, they can't have heard the news smile.gif

I think if we do that, they will disappear in a puff of logic. Logically speaking, in a VERY BAD economy, kids don't spend thousands on computer games and line up for ages to get the latest consoles. So they must be some kind of mirage.
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Judging the economy from a cursory glance at a line of teenagers buying a video game console is a poor gauge.

Malaysia is not dropping like the proverbial stone but it definitely is in terminal decline due to unfriendly investment policies, a massive brain drain and intense competition from other countries.
dreamer101
post Nov 10 2008, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(Nov 10 2008 @ 09:15 AM)
Judging the economy from a cursory glance at a line of teenagers buying a video game console is a poor gauge.

Malaysia is not dropping like the proverbial stone but it definitely is in terminal decline due to unfriendly investment policies, a massive brain drain and intense competition from other countries.
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SPS,

The problem is with the median age of 26, there are a lot of Malaysians entering working age. The annual growth has to be at least 6% to 7% or we will have serious unemployment and associated social problem. The parents can support those unemployed youths for a while before the finance are drained.

So, we are either there or almost there. It does not affect you since you have moved your children oversea and you had prepared for this.

In summary, pretty soon, many people have to migrate oversea just to find a job. There are not enough jobs for Malaysians in Malaysia.

Dreamer
aurora97
post Nov 10 2008, 09:32 AM

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especially so Malaysian's are coming back to Malaysia from Singapore by the truck loads due to retrenchment/vss schemes by their Singaporean Companies. It wont be long the job market will be crowded and we will start seeing unemployment sky rocket.

We have yet to feel the ripples yet.
SKY 1809
post Nov 10 2008, 09:39 AM

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The main concern of the private sectors is that these newly local graduates needed to be breast fed, may not in the position to help companies much.
TScherroy
post Nov 10 2008, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Nov 10 2008, 09:32 AM)
especially so Malaysian's are coming back to Malaysia from Singapore by the truck loads due to retrenchment/vss schemes by their Singaporean Companies. It wont be long the job market will be crowded and we will start seeing unemployment sky rocket.

We have yet to feel the ripples yet.
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It depends what job market segment. On lower ended job, therea are plenty which currently being filled by foreign workers.
Malaysia economy is not yet reach the state of require massive middle and upper range of job, but it has plenty of lower end job around, that's why millions of foreign workers are needed from restaurant, construction, to labour intensive job like plantation etc.

There are some fundamental problem in Malaysia economy need to be tackled.
We might have too many university graduate but not enough skillful worker and technician around.

In real world, graduate is not equal to skillful employee.

We might be having lot of Rm1K job per month one, but few 3K and above. But Malaysian thinks they deserve the 3-5K one, sorry no offence.

There are more people willing remain unemployed rather than work part time or work in the 1K job first. May be younger generation nowadays are more pampered by the parents. Again no offence, it doesn't apply across, just had seen a lot of examples around.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 10 2008, 09:46 AM
sharesa
post Nov 10 2008, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 10 2008, 09:42 AM)
It depends what job market segment. On lower ended job, therea are plenty which currently being filled by foreign workers.
Malaysia economy is not yet reach the state of require massive middle and upper range of job, but it has plenty of lower end job around, that's why millions of foreign workers are needed from restaurant, construction, to labour intensive job like plantation etc.

There are some fundamental problem in Malaysia economy need to be tackled.
We might have too many university graduate but not enough skillful worker and technician around.

In real world, graduate is not equal to skillful employee.

We might be having lot of Rm1K job per month one, but few 3K and above. But Malaysian thinks they deserve the 3-5K one, sorry no offence.

There are more people willing to be umemployed rather than work part time or work in the 1K job first. May be younger generation nowadays are more pampered by the parents. Again no offence, it doesn't apply across, just had seen a lot of examples around.
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I think you are right, no offence too.
The younger generation now are the product of the Malaysia rapid growth and globalizing period. Many of them are being pampered because they have something like their parents to fall back on.
cantdecide
post Nov 10 2008, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 9 2008, 12:08 AM)
IMO, Malaysia is in NOT the recession yet.. not by any outlook at the moment, even for the next 6-12 months.

Yes, we're seeing slow down in factories orders, our citizens are facing retrenchment across Singapore and huge number will come back but I think a large number of those will be absorbed back locally due to those on going projects already in place. Their salary may dwindle a bit but everybody will still have food on the table and not losing their homes.  Perhaps our inflation may continue to go up due to rising import costs and these are some of the things we can cut back.

We may see more repatriation of foreign workers back their own country if our economy slows down because we may not need much of them around anymore and our own citizens need the work - it depends on our business and govt priority - this is when we need to hire more locally.

As for growth.. I think we may see drops perhaps to as low as 2% for following year if other countries have not recover yet. Belts are tightening.. but not in dire straits yet.  smile.gif

So don't panic yet..  continue to invest in the market and profit!
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For all we know, we may not see any repatriation of foreign workers back to their own country simply because none or less Malaysians are willing to work for lowerly paid salary job. IMHO, it is natural thing for developing or developed countries to hire foreign to fill the gaps in area where it is routine and lowly paid. This is where the citizen can move up the 'salary chain' earning extra by providing better services/knowledge-required skills. We can't run away from this vicious cycle, just look at US, UK, Germany, SG, etc. Their citizens hardly work in industry such as waste-disposal though it might offer a decent salary. The problem with Malaysia is that most of our citizen actually more or less have the same qualification, if not worse, than most foreign workers (read: from India perhaps) yet they demand higher salary. So we simply can't repatriate foreigh workers back during worse time like now.

IMHO, this poisonous situation/problem simply the fruit we sow by not planting a good education system.

QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Nov 9 2008, 01:07 AM)
The question i have is how do you finance a 5% deficit if you cut interest rates?

What's Malaysia to do? How do you generate enough income to narrow the fiscal deficit without taxing your citizens?

Stimulus package? Dig yourself deeper in debt like US of A? The whole problem with the states is because of the dual fiscal and trade deficit. The government itself is setting a bad example. Spend the money you dont have? Borrow from the future generation and then pay later?

Honestly, who benefits when oil and commodity prices increases? I don't see you and i actually making more? Maybe in stocks yes, but who else benefit?

Sorry, i don't share the same view. I am with Dreamer101.
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Very well said. Not many people realise/understand what caused the current financial turmoil in US and some simply applaud the government dished out stimulus packages thinking that it will save their ass. Well, I hope they got it right and be prepared for the worse. I feel that the RM7B stimulus package our government has proposed is as good as being thrown into the dark deep muddy sea. It might not help any of us but it might help some big fish swimming for calmer water (read: bail-out?).

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 9 2008, 04:26 AM)
But, EPF IS saving, 33% in total still count. It is just that we can't touch the EPF money until we are retired. Without EPF, I say most retirees will already have to live on welfare (or more 'pokai' on the streets).  I guess some people will go broke too because they're stupid enough to withdraw them early even before they've retired and has no alternate savings or sustain income beyond their retirement. Average Malaysians now with good health care can live over 70s..even 80s.. I must admit I have no clue what those people will do if they burned all their EPF savings with a single lump sum withdrawal when they only reach 55/56.


Added on November 9, 2008, 4:38 am

IMO, Malaysia just need to be more productive that all.  Need to produce more stuff that we all need and other countries need. In lean time where industrial, services and constructions are going downhill, Malaysia being still only 10% still agri based, Malaysia can definitely increase our food production even more. Modernize our farming equipment, factories, etc
sell more agri and food products instead of oil to make up the difference.

As for increasing productivity..Education sector needs to play a vital role and we need to overhaul our entire education system in Malaysia. They're err..I must admit is in pretty bad shape, our local graduates can't compete with the demand of tomorrow business needs - even in agriculture industry.

..As for equity and stocks.. yeahh.. I love 'em.  We will continue to profit from those who are fearful.
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Being productive is good but we still lack of the ingredient such as effective, efficient and top quality. Being able to mass produce everything under the sun but subjected to low quality and worse still ineffective and inefficient will lead to more wastage and encourage more duit-kopi. Few days back, I read in TheSTAR that some minister/MP actually commented and realised that a country that is not effective and efficient actually encourage more duit-kopi. So, can we say we somehow know/realise why the duit-kopi is so widely used in Malaysia?

Wanted to read, mingle, share and learn more for everyone here but my schedule lately is just killing me.


Added on November 10, 2008, 10:08 am
QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 10 2008, 09:42 AM)
It depends what job market segment. On lower ended job, therea are plenty which currently being filled by foreign workers.
Malaysia economy is not yet reach the state of require massive middle and upper range of job, but it has plenty of lower end job around, that's why millions of foreign workers are needed from restaurant, construction, to labour intensive job like plantation etc.

There are some fundamental problem in Malaysia economy need to be tackled.
We might have too many university graduate but not enough skillful worker and technician around.

In real world, graduate is not equal to skillful employee.

We might be having lot of Rm1K job per month one, but few 3K and above. But Malaysian thinks they deserve the 3-5K one, sorry no offence.

There are more people willing remain unemployed rather than work part time or work in the 1K job first. May be younger generation nowadays are more pampered by the parents. Again no offence, it doesn't apply across, just had seen a lot of examples around.
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Oh, you have already mentioned this while I was slowly typing my opinion. smile.gif smile.gif smile.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by cantdecide: Nov 10 2008, 10:08 AM
kinwawa
post Nov 10 2008, 10:10 AM

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market is re-surging....
aurora97
post Nov 10 2008, 10:14 AM

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feeling see sick with the market going up and down like a yo yo rclxub.gif
yeeeeko
post Nov 10 2008, 10:26 AM

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good la yoyo. buy when yoyo down then sell when yoyo up.
kingkong81
post Nov 10 2008, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Nov 10 2008, 10:14 AM)
feeling see sick with the market going up and down like a yo yo  rclxub.gif
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Isn't that consider good for intra-day contra? tongue.gif tongue.gif

At least it is not so boring laugh.gif
kbandito
post Nov 10 2008, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Nov 10 2008, 09:48 AM)
I think you are right, no offence too.
The younger generation now are the product of the Malaysia rapid growth and globalizing period. Many of them are being pampered because they have something like their parents to fall back on.
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We have yet to mention unqualified graduate who is holding degree status because of the generous education policy, especially for government university.
We have many graduate coming out each year, some of them are holding the status because of the policy, and some of them are holding the status because of commercialized education business.

Where are we heading to?
Superior talent who obtained flying colors in SPM are aiming to leave Malaysia.
What's left is people like me who is not able to compete with the top class but still, recognized as top class in local university.
I am seriously disappointed with the generosity shown by the government in education planning.
SUSjvcpcv55
post Nov 10 2008, 10:37 AM

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yoyo is good..... can make / lost money, make heart pump faster..

the most boring one is flat......
yeeeeko
post Nov 10 2008, 10:41 AM

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yes. most boring is flat....Stare at counter until eyes dry also the price don't move...no flashing...

So go go yo-yo day.
aurora97
post Nov 10 2008, 10:42 AM

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this type of yo yo bo shock...

up 7 pts down t0 1pt than up to 7pt than down to 2 pts... WTF man..

than f-ing CPO makret kick in straight shoot up 7pt ... beginning of the mth CPO already so thin trading. Probably most of the big foreign traders r on holiday adi cause yr end or all kena goreng sotong taking long VSS leave.

see until i headache just ate penadol...

the one more interesting is open down 30pts... than recover closing at 2 pts than one baru shock.


This post has been edited by aurora97: Nov 10 2008, 10:45 AM

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