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 Stock market V16, Greed when people fear!

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rayloo
post Oct 13 2008, 06:38 PM

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It's kind of hard to be patient waiting for the targeted price comes.... laugh.gif
When I want to buy, I curse market drop ! whistling.gif
When I want to sell, I pray god for good economy !! thumbup.gif
Aiyo....I am Mr Bean lah ! tongue.gif
rayloo
post Oct 14 2008, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE
Just to add few point, it is a suicide act to use foreign reserves of a country to do bailout.

Foreign reserves is not 'the reserves' as normal people think of.

One needs to know how those reserves is come from foreigner money from several ways

1. There is plenty of foreign company want to invest in your country eg. Malaysia, so when they want to come here to invest, they take USD come to here. But USD can't be used to do investment or business in Malaysia. So the foreigners need to go to BNM to exchange for RM. So BNM will give them RM in exchange for the USD, then those USD kept by BNM is the foreign reserves currency.

2. Company in Malaysia doing export, so money received is in USD, so company will take those USD to BNM to exchange back to RM. So BNM got USD in foreign reserves currency.

So if one days, foreign investors in Malaysia want to divest their investment in Malaysia (be it stocks, business or whatever asset), then they will sell those assets, get RM, then take RM exchange to USD, then BNM will need to take USD out to give back to them. As BNM can't print USD, so they must have considerably foreign reserves currency to withstand those outflow or demand.

You know what, 1997 is the classic example of the foreign reserves importance and why this crisis unfolded, simply Asian countries hit by this crisis simply has too low foreign reserves because of red hot economy was growing rapid, there was a current account deficit throughout years, i.e import > export because economy was growing rapidly, there was a lot of demand for import goods range from consumers, machinery etc. Meanwhile short term foreign debt on various countries were high. So in order to pay off those foreign, you need considerably foreign reserves to pay off.

Hedge funds knew the situation, and took the advantage of it, to exploit the currency attack. Becuase if you have 100 of USD in foreign reserves, what if suddenly people take RM 500 to exchange for 200 USD (back then RM2.5/USD), then how BNM is going to face it or take out USD 200 to pay for it? The only choice was lower your currency, as if it becomes Rm5: USD, then BNM can afford already. So there is where and why currency attack by hedge fund is rampant back then.

Foreign reserves can be reduced if there is significant outflow of money just like recently in Malaysia, there is about 10 billion of outflow just in recent month due to massive outflow of foreign fund exiting equities market in Malaysia.

So foreign reserves currency is something that fluctuate that depends on economy situation and investment environment. It is not like ordinary people saving.
I thought they can do wired money transfer ? Like we transfer money to overseas, then the banks convert internally ? Do you mean a foreign investor has to carry millions of USD cash when coming or leaving our country ? blush.gif

Sorry I just don't get it. blush.gif
rayloo
post Oct 14 2008, 10:45 PM

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DJ turns red now.... sweat.gif
rayloo
post Oct 15 2008, 10:15 PM

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From my point of view KNM earning was too fluctuated, not stable. This is the counter that I would avoid, it is too unpredictable.
Would rather look for those with steady profit, maybe slow climb....but I am sure it will gain.
Investment is to avoid loss and make profit, isn't it ? wink.gif
rayloo
post Oct 15 2008, 11:15 PM

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It is kind of very hard to judge when is the right time to buy in. When people think market bad and throw shares, then we pick at cheap price. But if we decide to wait till market has slight glimse of sun rise, the price shoots up like rocket. Then we never catch the price at the most right timing we think.

How many times we thought and believed that market could go lower and we decided to wait when market came to our targeted buying price. Missed....regreted and swore to god that definetely would buy if market drop again to our price.

It's better to set the price based on techical analysis, buy or sell when it arrives.

Aiyo....this is what I was in last week. mad.gif
rayloo
post Oct 16 2008, 07:50 AM

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I don't understand the market reaction to the company earning announcement. The market is already bad and everyone knows it, the company announcements are just the written figure to prove it. How could people express more worry and panic to things that they already knew ?

What is the next thing to worry after the Fianancial announcement ?
rayloo
post Oct 16 2008, 12:37 PM

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My max for IOI is RM2.62.....seems I can get it lower. rclxms.gif
rayloo
post Oct 16 2008, 09:38 PM

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DJ turns green. hmm.gif
rayloo
post Oct 16 2008, 11:01 PM

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DJ looks very likely to break 8K.
Hope DJ red would drag my next target Resorts down to my price at RM2.40 tomorrow. flex.gif
rayloo
post Oct 16 2008, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(Jordy)
You're buying RESORTS at RM2.40?

Well, DJIA's drop could indicate that tomorrow is a good day to buy for short term.
This is only my opinion though.

Yes, will get in at RM2.40. After that, don't bother to see already because for long term
Then, will move to my next aim IOI and Top Glove. biggrin.gif
rayloo
post Oct 17 2008, 07:16 AM

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vmad.gif ...seems my Resorts no chance this week. Long neck in next week.
Patient, patient, patient...... sweat.gif whistling.gif

This post has been edited by rayloo: Oct 17 2008, 07:19 AM
rayloo
post Oct 17 2008, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81)
Y bother to buy so many counter ? Better buy 1 or 2 which you really confident with... Buying more counter you make you expose to higher risk as you may make mistake... Just my two cents.
Diversified. thumbup.gif
rayloo
post Oct 17 2008, 05:19 PM

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I wonder DJ shot over 400 points yesterday, but ours went down....
Really true share market is unpredictable. sweat.gif
rayloo
post Oct 17 2008, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(hanif444)
when KLSE 444..u can see loan shark pouring red paint every where everyday..hehe
Paint the town red. wub.gif

Better I store red pain now, at that time red paint will increase, high demand. brows.gif
rayloo
post Oct 17 2008, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy)
1929 market crash on October
1987 market crash on October
2008 market crash on October.
Any data supporting which month recover ? drool.gif

This post has been edited by rayloo: Oct 18 2008, 06:25 AM
rayloo
post Oct 18 2008, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(2u.com)
another thread being closed
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/820634

ok. actually i want to open one thread and put all my view on it,
but once open, it will be closed.

i think this place is not for me. nvm. i wont come here again. last posts

This forum is for everyone, welcome on board. However, we usually dscuss general topics in here "Stock Market v16" smile.gif
rayloo
post Oct 19 2008, 05:37 PM

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What is the technical defination for Recession ? Negative growth for 2 seasons ?
rayloo
post Oct 19 2008, 05:55 PM

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If a market suffers from 2 consecutive season negative growth, positive at 3rd quater...does it mean reovery ?
Thanks for your invitation, will look into the FKLI trading corner. Thanks. rclxms.gif
rayloo
post Oct 19 2008, 06:01 PM

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Oh I see....10x. thumbup.gif
rayloo
post Oct 19 2008, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981)
Raylo, you can join my FKLI trading corner, i did post some charts for couple of KLCI components.
Eh...cannot log in. icon_question.gif

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