Take Profit on Euro short, bank another set of 864 USD.

Now I have a floating short profit of ~9700+ USD @ 3970. Still holding 4802, 4675, 4418, 4178 short.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 11 2008, 10:24 AM

I think the drop of euro is getting near. We have getting near to pre-subprime value. Shorting will be a little bit tighter now. I am back to scalping short while holding the swing short that is on top.

Actually there is a way to trade without SL.

Just take 2 opposite trade immediately if u find urself last position wrong. use those 2 opposite position to wash out all the -ve on previous position then u end up Breakeven or have some profit.
Another way is to take a bigger position on the same side at market retrace to wash the -ve out.

It is the same example of a guy with a leg that is badly injured, instead of cutting(cut losses) the leg to prevent more bleeding, try to take measures to cure the bleeding. That way u can be back to where u started.

I am heavy short on EU, thanks to this rise up, but probably Caution and pull the trigger if the bull confirm.

4109,4102 as of now, I hope I wont pull my trigger if the bull is confirm.

Time frame, Daily, 60min, 30min, 15min, 5min, 1min. I look everything b4 I enter my trade.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 12 2008, 09:13 PM

I am closing my shorts today for minor profit on the break of 4100 just now, i dont quite like the price action. There is little sigh of strong bear.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 12 2008, 10:08 PM

things have changed now, first ECB is assured that they will not be cutting rates this year. Then with the US red data like this, there is a possibility that US gonna run into another round of rate cut which could send euro back to 1.5. I wont be surprise that Next Monday morning open we have a Price gaping like this Monday.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 13 2008, 07:27 AM

I am looking a Eu Dip on this rise to pull out my high short I held for weeks for some big profit. It is time to take this money then letting it to go vanish.

Exit my Shorts with RM12K profit on the dip to 4310 just now. The USD gonna get kill with the cuts, if FED cut we will see 1.45, if someone buying Lehman than we might see the return of bear.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 15 2008, 08:58 AM

Thats the whole idea why I look for a dip and take out all my high level shorts.

We have FOMC interest rate later on Tuesday, they might now plan to cut the rates this time. But what they said from their mouth could damage the market. For example, if they say is giving anyone any sigh of cutting rates are in their mind. You could possibility think the market will buy that believes and send the USD to graveyard again. USD graveyard means Gold, Oil will be back in business. With OPEC cut the oil production, Ike etc. And it also mean the other part of the world will face inflation again.

Secondly Then at the same time the Europe slow down is bad, their economy is slowed, but the last month oil has dropped considerably, which also mean all the bad things will not be as bad as expected. Bad things will be cool down.

Thirdly, The lehman issue is up to the US treasury want to help them or not. From what I am told the US Treasury said they are not helping them, instead Lehman now will rely on other banks like Citigroup, JP morgan, goldman sanch etc to bail out them. If there is no one buying Lehman's Debt, a bankcruptcy from Lehman would signal that the next Bank who might face debt issue will end up bankcrupt also.


If put all this things together, they are not help USD either, which also mean it is time to TP on Swing shorts. I might not be trading b4 the FOMC, Gonna take holiday for a while unless the market shows me good position to take.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 15 2008, 09:56 AM

Wow what a mad day for EU, Lucky I didnt trade. Otherwise will either get big profit or burn.

up 220pips from Friday close, down 400pips then up 80pips again. EU becoming a GJ.

USD + JPY lah, what else. I beginning to see USD as carry trade already. It seems to be moving out from the USA economy, something like JPY.

Bad US Economy = USD rise? check the stock again. yup Stock unwind = USD rise too. Seems more likely now. The only 2 place to park money safely is USD and JPY.

Not a single statement I said the money is moving to Japan. I am saying the money flows into USD and JPY now. These 2 currencies have zero relation with their country Economy.

Just as what I said b4, the USD and JPY is used as Safe heaven now. But for USD. It is not gonna be the case anymore for now. Cutting the IR will send USD down, but it will not go by much. because Cutting IR means US gov is trying their best to save the financial and housing market which is good for USA economy. So the USD bearish on the IR cut will be short term. While holding the IR will send the Stock tumble again, Hold IR good for USD but bad for USA economy. So it is mix trend also. I have no idea where the USD want to gom and I will not trade no matter how volatile it is. Getting the money from here is like getting a treasure in the ocean with full of sharks.

As for CHF I have no studies of CHF, however I do believe that CHF will have a mix type of trend, Bearish from Eurozone, bullish on CHF as Carry trade.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 16 2008, 09:01 PM

this is exactly what I am trying to tell u guys, if u open a position now with +50-100pips profit.... after tonight 2am it might be -50pips or more. u want a sleepless night? noway!

His mistake will come true soon enough, the EU will return to there soon. With the condition in USA right now I dont see why EU wont make back to 1.5.

DO NOT Long any USD. ALL the USD are in trouble now.

I am looking for a pull back to long. Seems harder to find it since 4460s.

This whole thing is what I have been keep saying when the USD make all the nice bullish move in the past weeks. However, I do believe there is some Europe bank that follow the same fate as US bank, just that they have been covering their problems pretty well up. I am not very sure when their gonna burst out from the dark. Just be careful with ur longs high up here.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 23 2008, 08:52 AM

then u have to pray USA economy go deeper and Dow jones crash down 300-500points and the world follows it. At this moment I think it is possible but if US Treasury comes out any kinds of "stimulus" plan to save their economy and look "promising" then ur short might be in trouble.

Nice job. the USD superbull is obviously a manipulation due to low liquidity. Right now the price action with the bad euro data, it seems dont really hurt the euro drop, this is something we see like the olden days euro.

I still think there is a potential we gonna hit 1.5 soon.

I am shorting the Eu for the German ifo for mini profit. gonna run and get out b4 tonight mayhem.