i need someone to slap me for not holding my shorts......

!!!!!

me...
shorts
1.4145 @ about 7:40pm, close 2 mins later
1.4056 @ about 8:45pm, close 3 mins later.......

OMFG!!!!!

time to go for drink

ya...being a little cautious on ISM reports...taking break for a while...

haiya...robot cannot beat human one ler...better trade manually

if worst ever, careful people dumping more money into t-bills

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 1 2008, 09:55 PM

US Senate approved Paulson Plan. EU already tried to rechallenge the lower support to enter 1.38xx.. waiting for confirmation to shorts...careful guys

damn it...ECB rate decision tonight......

normack..what hedge are you in?

hm...with European banks and investment firms hitting as hard as what Wall Street has gone through, I am aiming that money would flow to US bank stocks, t-bills, etc, rather than staying in Europe board.

US might probably again borrow money from Asia (Japan + China has around $1trillion worth of Treasury bills on hand), rather than printing. It's hard to tell what exact will happen by 2nd quarter in 2009, but in the shorter term, USD>Euro (if ECB doesnt come out with a plan)

but then, the bill still need to be pass through congress again. If it fails again, May God help US market.

anyone ride on EU? now careful for strong pullback....

other than oil trading that could move USD, USD itself could also affect oil price, cause oil is traded in USD, i.e. Barrel/USD. This also what concerns in Europe, China, where oil will be more expensive there, causing a further financial drag.

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Added on October 2, 2008, 3:42 pmaah...how are you guys trading there? gonna take a rest for the european session..see you guys back in US session.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 2 2008, 03:42 PM

wah...very nice there..i wish i could hold that long...been doing the same mistake over and over again...not holding long enough...

buy us all a drink

i skipped the US session... but now that it's passed 1.3800 mark...no idea where to next...

one more thing you might be interested to focus on

understanding the fundamentals

Candlestick Charting Explained - Gregory L. Morris

that's a good book, can google it up ...but must remember hor, cannot confuse candlesticks of stocks with forex...forex candlesticks shouldnt have gaps other than weekly chart, cause it's 24/5

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Added on October 2, 2008, 10:08 pmwah lao...you all earn so many pips...

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 2 2008, 10:08 PM

overshot the time...bought many dvds last night... lol when i looked back..too late.. aih...still got tomorrow

anyway, bout the bear flag, it would be more apparent in a 4H chart. The pole would start from the BO of the pendant

hmm...i'll be more careful going in short with EU...here's the reason shown at chart. i choose the low (though not extreme) for its long consolidation period, a price people would remember. It's now resting at 61.8...IMO, heading further to 74.6 is rather difficult. hmm...i'll wait for tomorrow's European session's reaction...

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 2 2008, 10:53 PM


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hm...like what shown in the chart i posted, it's now at the 61.8 level, as it might most probably hang on to this level for a while (some choppy move). what i meant was, it'll be rather difficult to reach 74.6 at about 1.33xx, as ECB will take steps or make some announcements. It may further challenge 61.8, but i'd say most likely it'll go 1/3 towards 74.6 before bouncing off.

added a 74.6 fanline to the chart

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Added on October 2, 2008, 11:39 pmadd on a 5M chart for better view...

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Added on October 2, 2008, 11:43 pmhm..IMO, if the chart shows gaps, it means the server is either slow to the reaction, or the opening of a new candlestick is slow. This would be apparent when we look at mt4 charts, and to charts like fxcm's.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 2 2008, 11:43 PM


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wow...super strong move...you guys looking at this?

hm...actually...the down move on EU makes sense. With the deteriorating situation in Europe, people would fear banks and firms will turn out just like US. Like mentioned earlier, money are going to US Treasuries (here), where the yield for longer terms have been rising lately. Ofcourse, this is one of the many places money could go. Like billy said, it's going to Yen as well.

As we've talked about last night, the price reached about 1/3 way towards the 74.6...while it's still hanging around back at the 61.8 area..based on TA alone, the bear is very weak on a daily outlook.

IMO, fundamentals aint about good print = up, bad print = down (in good times, of course yes). It's more about understanding where will the money go, especially important in forex.

hm...i still dont think EU could dip into 1.3200 region..

even though Europe is likely to suffer what US went through its initial stage, ECB and repective governments are taking stern actions for damage control, to try their best, not to allow what happened in US, happen to them.

back on US, reports arent showing any good signs at all. With the recent strengthening of USD against a basket of currencies, and the further drop of oil prices, it aint helping the economy at all. Oct may even see a drop in both export and imports, with further decline of retails, housing price, etc.

money to pump into the US Treasuries has to end one day, IMO, EU would be going for a reversal and for a wide consolidation zone. If it's a reversal, i'll look at 1.4014, with some struggle at 1.3851

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Added on October 5, 2008, 11:04 pmprobably a small gap opening lower tomorrow, see if it'll make an up move by the european session, if not asian session.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Oct 5 2008, 11:04 PM

if your "system" makes profit out of forex, consistently, you wont be bothered to sell your "system" here.