The problem now i see is the spillover effects from this financial crisis. Instead of holding currencies, investors might rush to gold. Sooner or later its going to crash; even if the bailout does happen. Forex wise, i am very very unsure. Most likely euro and pounds will continue going down due to uncertainty in its financial system. Especially pounds.


Wachovia is dead. RIP.

Haha, i missed out Euro's DT...now long euro.

C'mon guys, you all know that FED Is going to cut IR if the credit market still seizes...

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Added on October 1, 2008, 4:29 pmBail out pass, euro goes up, dollar becomes toilet paper...

Bail out fails, investors rush to T BILLS, dollar STRONG, euro becomes toilet paper...

So funny...

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Added on October 1, 2008, 4:38 pmI'm accumulating my euro longss.......See you at 1.45 next week.


This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 1 2008, 04:38 PM

I am scalping mini gold now...heh....

From the looks of it, DJIA is going to have a bear rally in 4th quarter. Maybe it's expecting an IR cut from Fed. Anyways, i will continue to long euro and gold (buy on dips).

That's because of the high volatility of the market. Now the VIX is at 39+, and yesterday it was 48+. No one wants to take excessive risk and hence the poor liquidity in the FOREX market.

Senate is going to pass the bill, but by how much? IF less than 80 senators pass the bill, forget it....the stock market will tank another 700.

OF course it's not. It's just a psychological short term solution. The underlying fundamentals is a mess.

The numbers reflects the bipartisanship in which the bill is needed to pass in the House; and if the number is less than convincing, the bailout bill might not pass.

There are 100 in the Senate.

Tonight.

It will be live on CNBC website. Its about early morning our time

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Added on October 1, 2008, 8:35 pmIn order for the bailout bill to pass, the House and the Senate must have enough majority vote before Bush can sign it.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 1 2008, 08:35 PM

Lesson 1: Never trust politicians.

I'm not confident of EU since France & Germany are clashing on how to rescue the euro zone with the deepening crisis.

With Trichet speaking later on today...man......


We all know the NFP for US is going to be bad, but the biggest event risk is the UNDERLYING tone of Trichets speech....is he ready to cut ir?

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Added on October 2, 2008, 6:12 pmEspecially this now:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=110997

Will Euro zone be able to handle the crisis?????

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 2 2008, 06:12 PM

EURO is bleeding to death... Sigh

I have to agree; carry trades amount to the biggest losses i have had in my forex account. I now need to really stop trading these volatile carry trades.

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Added on October 13, 2008, 4:40 amBilly,

The EU has just announced government backing of bad bank debts. Wouldn't that cause the EU to drop rapidly in the near future?

What a disaster, we are heading for an inflation era soon.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 13 2008, 04:41 AM

Look, "play" and speculate is entirely different. No one here play forex using fake money. To come here and advertise your firm is a mistake especially when you do not contribute anything. We forumers appreciate insights, strategies from one another. We don't appreciate someone BARGING in and advertise his firm. And the word play just insults our intelligence.

The best time was to purchase Aussie dollar when it was close to 2. Although i predicted 2, i was close. IT was selling at 2.17 @ Standard Chartered. However right now, i think many pundits here will agree with me, you are most likely going to see higher 2s in the future.


If you have any further questions, you can add me @ msn, udinesewin @ hotmail dot com.


This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Nov 2 2008, 12:40 PM

Thanks Kelvin, i need to work, coz too bored at home. And i get to see pretty tellers since my branch is surrounded by banks! LOL...

I'm actually going to buy more AUD/YEN because i believe Pickens said is accurate. Oil is going back up.

My reason being:

a) All G7 countries have cut interest rate, including India, and China.

b) I know short term we might see a downward movement for aud/yen pair but i believe with China's big infrastructure project, it will be wise to buy some. Maybe we will see 80 in the medium run? (between 6 months - 1 yr)

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Added on November 2, 2008, 2:19 pm@ Kelvin,

I see you shorted EU, i did the same, abit lower at 1.2733. Was biting my nails when it went up to 1.2770, but i believe my fundamental forecast for US will be 70/30 accurate.

I also notice EU is having a tough time to break the 1 hr 200 simple moving average. All i know is we will see a big big price action next week.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Nov 2 2008, 02:19 PM

I'm sure the bank has to make something, it's already charging 1% on top of its buying and selling.

No one is going to provide you a best rate at this point. The dealers have lost quite a lot of money from all these volatility.

I am releasing my short position tomorrow, and going long. I forsee USD/YEN going back above 100. So i dont' want to play play.

On the contary, i still trade forex.