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 YTL power, Well managed company

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cherroy
post Sep 29 2008, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(constant @ Sep 27 2008, 11:05 AM)
Why is the exercise for the WB lowered from 1.25 to 1.21? is it because dividends has been paid out?

Thanks
*
Yes, warrant exercise price normally will be adjusted according to extra shares being given out (like bonus, rights, share dividend etc) so that warrant holders has equal treatment throughout except for cash dividend.


Added on September 29, 2008, 9:10 am
QUOTE(gowin_goh @ Sep 27 2008, 12:52 PM)
I can convert my warrant B TO MOTHER SHARE ANYTIME By paying RM1.21+RM0.52=RM1.73 as at 26/9/08?                                        BUT the mother share is price at RM1.78 as at 26/9/08, which mean i earn a profit of RM0.05 on conversion?Can anyone explain wheteher it is true? icon_question.gif  icon_question.gif
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Yes,

But you lose your gearing advatange of a warrant.

But you gain interm of getting cash dividend.

As it is one of dividend stocks, so normally warrant for dividend stocks will be discount a bit as warrant holders can't enjoy those cash dividend and while when stock price being ex-dividend time, share price will be adjusted downwards which is a disadvantage factor for warrant.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 29 2008, 09:10 AM
cherroy
post Oct 4 2008, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(rayloo @ Oct 3 2008, 10:42 PM)
Thanks skiddtrader and appreaciate for the latest EPS report, if PER for YTL Power is 8.86x and YTL Corp is 10.88x, dont it mean YTL Power is more worthy to buy ? Instead of mother, son run faster.
Sorry for my naive questions, just I am a novice in stock investment. Will look into investopedia..

Ya darkknight81, don know what what will YTL Corp will do to YTL Power in future...Hope something good.
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It depends, can't say which one is better totally. Different comparison.

YTLpower - involved in Wessex and IPPs, so earning wise is quite predictable.

YTL - as a group and construction related, earning wise can shoot up quite fast in good time so does share price might appreciate more than YTLpower when market good time.

Not necessary mother or son wil run faster, it depends on individual company financial and prospect issue.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 4 2008, 10:14 AM
cherroy
post Oct 16 2008, 11:34 AM

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I don't know YTLpower has buyback how many shares already, just know YTLpower has buyback substantial numbers of it.
Just buyback has its limitation, it can't exceed the 10% of total outstanding shares.
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Oct 22 2008, 03:58 PM)
Doesn't mean anything to me. If you valuate in GBP, the company is still worth the same. And I rather valuate it in GBP rather than RM. Currency exchanges will balance out in the end. No need to worry about it because their loans are in GBPs, so they are hedge against the currency. Their earnings are also in GBP and their loan payments are also in GBP. The higher or lower the GBP  against the RM is has nothing to do whether or not the company is worth more or not, because in terms of GBP, it is still worth the same.

Ask yourself, if someone in Europe or the world would want to valuate the Wessex Water business, would they valuate it in RM or GBP?
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Yes, valuation in GBP still the same.

But for accounting purposes and real transalation into profit, it would be less in term of RM which by any accounting standard, YTLpower need to realise it in term of RM wise as it is reporting in RM financial book.

Valuation can remain the same, if company doesn't opt to revalue it in their balance sheet, but profit wise can't.

cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Oct 22 2008, 04:28 PM)
One thing i need sifu here to clarify. IF the GBP depreciate then can  YTL power choose to convert Pound to RM the other time when Pound is strengthen?
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Yes, in real term, they can opt not to convert the GBP back to RM or send back to Malaysia and keep in UK. (which is norm pratice and most applied by overseas venturing company).

But in accouting standard, they need have paper realisation of it. Just like you company in UK is earning 100K pounds, then how you report in your annual financial result? Surely take 100k x GBP rate (let say 5.80) = Rm580K at the end of the financial calendar.

So if one day in the future, company decided to convert it back to RM and send back to Malaysia, but rate is different, not 5.80. So if it is 6.00, then extra 20K being pocket as profit (extra-ordinary profit or exchange rate profit etc defined by the company account), while if it is 5.60, then resulted in 20K loss in the financial book afterwards.

But when reporting their annual financial result, they need to have paper realisation.
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Oct 22 2008, 04:51 PM)
I think for fixed asset, company can elect alternative which is base on historical value instead of fair value through fixed interval valuation (I like this more, more prudent). If not mistaken, I didn't see YTL Power doing re-valuation in their account, so the impact should be limited to the profit in GBP translated into RM only. Please correct me if I am wrong...

Anyway, foreign currency appreciation gain/ depreciation loss doesn't really matter that much to me, unless we are talking about countries like Zimbabwe (Aussie & NZ also no good).
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Yes, for fixed asset under balance sheet, if company doesn't opt for revaluation, it can stay at same valuation figure.

Aussie & NZ no good for the last few month and potential in near future. But over the last few decade, RM actually depreciated against them even at current 2.3-2.4 level.
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Oct 22 2008, 05:15 PM)
RM actually depreciate against most of the currencies :-p
By theory, this should be happened to country with bad deficit in balance of payment... Don't know is RM undervalued or... hmm.gif
*
With this statement, it has already showed that having diversificaiton of asset in others developed countries in the denomination of major currencies is indeed a need.


cherroy
post Oct 23 2008, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Oct 23 2008, 08:14 AM)
Weakening of pound is temporaly only. The next olympic is at UK. Should see some rally of pound by then.
By the time can trade the warrant B
My two cents.
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No, I disagree on this factor (not mean GBP won't rise or plunge), just olympic or not won't be a major factor in determine the currency, economy or stock market. It has to do with macro-economy and external factor. Currency is sensitive to interest rate and economy growth and health of country financial situation. It (olympic) has some stimulus effect but it is not the major driving force.

We had enough previous myth or popular talk of buying China stocks because of Olympics, which I find a lame excuse long before. Sorry no offence. smile.gif

QUOTE(calmwater @ Oct 23 2008, 10:24 AM)
I have a question. What happens when a warrant price has dissapeared from the radar, meaning to say it has gone to zero and later the mother share rises again from the ashes, does the warrant become valuable again or is it toilet paper for good, meaning to say it has been flushed down the toilet and it is gone forever. sweat.gif

I know that doesn't make sense, but just want to confirm. hmm.gif
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As long as the warrant has not expired, then yes.

QUOTE(htt @ Oct 23 2008, 10:39 AM)
I think the minimum is 0.5 cent, it won't fall below that (No one will go to stock exchange and offer to sell their share/ warrant for 0 cent and pay commission etc, right?). Even if someone did that, the warrant will still recover its value if the ordinary share gain back ground.

If anyone is going to sell warrant to me at 0 cent, I will be more than welcome at the receiving end... money come money come...  rclxms.gif
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Even at 0.005, it is still not make sense to sell in few lots. 10 lots (x100) x 0.005 = Rm5., minus min commission (Rm8.88 or Rm12 or Rm28 or Rm40), you still ended up with -ve figure. biggrin.gif What for? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 23 2008, 11:31 AM
cherroy
post Nov 16 2008, 07:49 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 15 2008, 11:44 PM)
Yup i was doing that. I bought 360 lots mother share at RM 1.84 and 230 lots warrant B at RM 0.55 after issuance of warrant B. Which approximately equal to RM 2.05 before issuance of warrant B. My concern now if ... this counter stay stagnant for 3 - 5 years then i am losing a lot of dividend .... sweat.gif
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Just for info, depended on company, some warrant being converted to mothershare will not rank parri passu (same status) with the mothershare in the first year after being converted aka, not entitle the immediate coming dividend declared. So, in this case, you need to wait the second year before can start enjoying the dividend.

But it depended on company policy when setting the warrant term time. But most nowadays, warrant being given or set at rank parri passu when being converted.

Yes, you concern is perfectly reasonable, as YTLpower share is generally quite stagnant most of the time. That's why warrant being traded on par with the mothershare valuation or sometime slightly discount.
By right, for normal circumstances, warrant should trade at slight premium because of gearing.
cherroy
post Nov 18 2008, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 18 2008, 01:24 PM)
Erm... kind of dilemma now  icon_question.gif

What is your view then ? Do you think this counter can surge in near term? I personally think the possibility is very rare....And it might slide further ....In order to reduce my paper lose still better convert it ....As i personally think that the credit crisis issue will not be settled in these few years maybe it would last for years .....

Just a simple question i ask previously...let consider the mother share stay stagnant....for five years....Considering annual dividend of 8 sen... i am basically losing 40 sen of dividend already....

If nothing good happened on this counter, every issuance of dividend will erroded the warrant price further down....

My logic is why not convert to mother share and accumulate the dividend to buy back the warrant at a lower price ?
I think the management already see this situation... they foresee we will convert it to mother share in the end for their fund raising...

Can share what is your strategy?
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Yes, one view mothershare price is going to be stagnant, then surely convert is the better option as it erodes the value of warrant.

So it basically the consideration is simple.

1. If you view mothershare going to be stagnant, then convert
2. If you view mothershare will be appreciating, then stay with warrant, as warrant generate more return rate when mothershare is rising due to gearing factor.
3. If cash and individual liquidity is tight, then go for warrant as it provides you the gearing factor as you need lesser capital to enjoy the nearly the same amount of return rate with mothershare, but have to consider factor (1) also.
cherroy
post Nov 18 2008, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Nov 18 2008, 01:03 PM)
Even you convert your warrant B you cannot enjoy the dividend yet as it is consider as A share, therefore, you will be entitled for any dividend after conversion of 12 months.  sweat.gif
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So you already find out and confirm the converted warrant will not ranked as pari-passu with the mothershare?

It should be, most of the time as far as my experience tell me, although can have exception which depended on company.
cherroy
post Dec 3 2008, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Dec 3 2008, 07:49 AM)
Problem is i am concerning on is the buying of seraya too high? As the ROI is only 6.5% . There are potential that it may slide today
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Yes, I share with your view too. At 6.5%, it might not boost the company earning much, considered that borrowing cost should be at least around 3-5% range.

Long term, definitely might be good as those asset is not something can be acquired easily in the market nor can be set up as wish. <-- this might be the main reason. As strategic of business is always the priority which will be good for long term earning, not short term benefit.

So, it is not a short term benefit, considered that worldwide slowing economy which will dampen the electricity usage.
Good side is, fuel price is dropping.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 3 2008, 09:31 AM
cherroy
post Jan 15 2009, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Jan 15 2009, 05:01 PM)
IPP sell to TNB fixed price mah... tongue.gif
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Yupm It is one of the most lucrative business and without much risk.

You don't worry about the selling price, you just produce max out and waiting the cash to roll in. whistling.gif
cherroy
post Apr 12 2009, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(calmwater @ Apr 11 2009, 02:29 AM)
Also keep in mind every year the exercise price will be adjusted upwards. Presently is $1.21  , in a few months could be up by about 5 sen.
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I don't understand what you mean exercise price adjusted upwards?

Exercise price of warrant is fixed unless there is bonus issue, right issue or stock split etc which has to do with the shareholding issue by then exercise price will only be adjusted.

If there is no issue affecting share number issue, exercise price is fixed throughout the warrant lifetime.
cherroy
post Apr 13 2009, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(calmwater @ Apr 13 2009, 10:50 AM)
I am afraid not. Warrant undergoes a yearly increase in exercise price, which if not mistaken is about 4% per annum.

Yeah, just found this under historical announcements @ www.klse.com.my/

The Exercise Price in respect of each new ordinary share of RM1.00 each is required under the provisions of Appendix A of the Deed Poll to be increased annually by 4 sen from the first anniversary of the date of issuance of the 2000/2010 Warrants i.e. 11 January 2000. Consequential to the subdivision of one ordinary share of RM1.00 each into two ordinary shares of RM0.50 each as approved by the shareholders of YTL Power on 8 June 2004, the increment to the Exercise Price of 4 sen per share was correspondingly adjusted to 2 sen per share.

By the way the exact adjustment to exercise price of WB I am not sure, got to look it up somewhere. wink.gif
*
If there are stated T&C of the warrant, when the warrant first being launched time, yes, possible.

But generally in the market warrant exercise price is fixed throughout in the market, (still can vary, there is no law or regulation that they can't be varying exercise price), this is a more special case/condition for warrant.

Interesting to know more about it. So if your statement is true, it means it will increase 2 cents annually.

If like that, it is totally disadvatange (exercise price increment annually and dividend on mothershare) to have WB in the first place, no wonder it is always trading at discount. wink.gif

cherroy
post Sep 5 2009, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(calmwater @ Sep 4 2009, 08:44 PM)
Thanks SKID.

So someone finally went up to management to find out. That's good!!  It is much preferred if the CEO makes an announcement to state in clear terms the whole plan. Investors should be informed. They must have a good reason to invest in WiMax, as they are in communications with Samsung and know of the latest technology and the potential for success.
Maybe YTLPOWR cannot reveal sensitive details at the moment, just a guess. hmm.gif

Maybe with The Edge reporting on this and the downgrade by Amresearch, the good CEO might come out and say something, hopefully.
*
It is not good for venture into high capex business while has no foresight on profitability issue mainly because until now, no one knows Wimax can be a profitable or highly proftiable business to run with. Bare in mind, it needs to face huge competition from TM especially with TM will be running HSBB gov project.
But they have to roll out the Wimax because it is the license requirement, if not roll out, license can be revoked.

This news particular not good for YTLP which expertise is in Power generation and utilities business, that's why its share dropped after this news/rumour, because market view, cashflow of YTLP is tapped on.
It makes sense for YTL group to choose YTLP because YTLP is the one with significant cashflow generation constantly which able to support the capex of Wimax. But shareholders might not like it, if the Wimax business doesn't contribute much profit.

Wimax will have lot of penetration in future broadband market, but profitability wise still remain a huge question especially this could involve massive high capex business to run, that's the major concern.

QUOTE(simplesmile @ Sep 4 2009, 10:19 PM)
Do minority shareholders have enough votes to disapprove this deal?
*
You already stated 'minority'. Anything combined stake less than 49%, nothing much can do about it.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 5 2009, 12:21 AM
cherroy
post Sep 5 2009, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Sep 5 2009, 12:43 AM)
If you ask me, I'd say the Malaysian population is not huge enough to sustain 4 Wimax companies. This is spending good money to chase bad money. Should just let govt revoke the Wimax license and concentrate on acquiring cash cows.
*
Yup, have to agree on this, Malaysia market is too small.

For broadband, we have
1. TM's streamyx, and future HSBB
2. 3G by celcom, Maxis, Digi
3. Free Wifi around
3. 3 Wimax companies (4?, I can just remembered 3, correct me if I am wrong) smile.gif

Too many players around.

Gpacket has publically said they target and project 200K subscribers for make profit out of it. How many 200K subscribers can be there to tap on?
Until now, streamyx just having around 1 million subscribers base with monopoly and pioneer in broadband only.


cherroy
post Sep 5 2009, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 5 2009, 01:18 AM)
There is still no news on YTLP venturing Wimax, just that they bought the subsi with the license only. Besides, maybe Mr Yeoh maybe take the money from YTLP, loan to YTLE with interest?  hmm.gif
*
If this is a case, this is no win case for YTLP to give loan to YTLE, inter-company loan is something very bad perceived by the market. (remembered the Bjland and Bjtoto inter-company loan saga which lead Bjtoto share plunged from 8.00 to 4.xx)

If YTLE can paid the interest, it means Wimax business generates enough cashflow and potential profit to the company. In this case, might as well run under YTLP as mor reward to YTLP shareholders.

If the Wimax business is not viable, then YTLE cannot potential pay the interest (or may be can as even make loss, some company still able to generate cashflow) but definitely not able to repay the initial borrowing.

So both doesn't seems favourable/win to YTLP.

Fundamentally, if Wimax business is highly profitable and YTL group want to tap cashflow of YTLP then better run under YTLP. The issues arise because huge cashflow will be drained, while no foresight for the profitability. People invested YTLP mainy for its utilities business which generate steady cashflow as dividend play. So if cash being drained, investors will worry about the cashflow and dividend ability, that's why we see some selling pressure after the rumour.

With the license means they must run already, if not license will be revoked by the gov after a period of inactivity.

cherroy
post Sep 5 2009, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Sep 5 2009, 04:10 PM)
I don think franchis will not care much when we dumping the shares as ytl corp holding almost 70% of ytl power....

Maybe this can explain y ytl power still holding 5 billion + cash for quite sometimes without any new acquisition news

Let consider the RM 2.5 billion of loan / investment from ytl power to ytl communications fail to generate any income...i will say the future EPS and DPS can still be maintained even after the dilution of warrants ... However DPS AND EPS growth will be unlikely...
*
If it is indeed Rm2.5 billion loan went to non-profit business which is to help YTLE alone to roll out Wimax, although EPS is not affected (it won't affect EPS figure), investors' confidence of corporate governance and benefit will be affected, and share price could trade less premium compared to previously. The share price dipped after the news come out mainly on corporate governance issue, which nowadays is an important issue and more awareness among investors nowadays.



cherroy
post Sep 5 2009, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Sep 5 2009, 05:51 PM)
nod.gif Agree with you. Maybe i have make a mistake of topping up ytl power during price was RM 2.20 ....

But my faith with ytl power still strong.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
It is still a good stock.

But if this deal indeed go through and affected the dividend ability, then need to have some review on it because this stock is mainly dividend play.

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