[quote=chabalang,Jan 9 2011, 10:31 AM]
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Basically, inflation factor is the one driving properties price currently.
Cash rich person fear cash losing value, find hard asset to invest to protect their wealth.
People see inflation, automatically expect everything price goes up, including properties, so speculate, buy.
Developers see inflation, time to jack up price.
A house loan of 100K become lesser than 100K in an inflaton situation <-- get what I mean.
It is all because money become smaller.
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Well said, cherroy. Two key drivers of current property prices: (i)
low interest rate (a friend commented that it's a sin not to take house mortgage with such cheap REAL interest rate) and expectations that the interest rate situation will remain benign (no doubt, Asia is having strong growth and some countries are likely to increase interest rates to deal with inflationary pressures, particularly from FOOD/commodities. But the interest rate increase will be relatively mild (a few %), use of currency appreciation is more likely to fend inflation as a huge spike in interest will undermine growth and remember US/Europe are stuck in doldrums ; and (ii)
inflationary pressure. In Malaysia, construction and renovation costs have been going UP. With removal of subsidies and large infrastructure projects in the pipeline, you can imagine the inflationary pressure on building materials. Just to give an example, during my house renovation (in 2010) - the prices of cement, sand, paint and steel were increased not once but several times.
Not withstanding the above, I have to admit that some properties are "bubblish" - don't wish to name and identify location (I may be wrong to name - I laughed at my friend who bought a link house for RM1 mln in 2009 at a "not prime location" - to me, prime location is Damansara Heights and Bangsar, now this friend is laughing at me because the last transacted price in that area is RM1.5 mln). IMHO, some of the new launches are priced at ridiculous levels - close to a million for a link house in location more than 15 kilometres from KL!
After reading/following this thread for a few days, more of the forumers are hoping for the price to drop (probably the forumers are younger and more likely to buy their first house). YES, landed properties prices in good areas are becoming prohibitive for the younger generation. To me, it's simple demand and supply. Land supply in good areas will remain SAME but the demand is getting stronger with population growth and top 10%-20% population earning higher Real income. In contrast, high-rise properties price appreciation has not been as steep or even stagnated in certain locations - but in M'sia, high-rise are normally poorly maintained - a lot of them are in quite sad conditions after 10 years.
Anyway, asset inflation (house price increase) in a growing country is a normal thing but it must be in tandem with income level, employment level, mortgage affordability/accessibility and etc. This round of increase is mainly driven by (i) cheap interest rate - mortgage affordability and (ii) inflationary expectations. No doubt, we did see landed properties prices in better locations rocketed away since 2H2009 and it is fast becoming out of reach of the mass population. There are still a lot of properties (albeit high-rise) in the 250,000 to 500,000 band but there may not be in your preferred location. If you look at JPPH report in 1H2010, only 2.1% and 6.9% of the residential properties sold in Malaysia are above RM1 mln and RM500,000 respectively - likely to be concentrated in KV and Penang.
As for those wishing for a price crash so that you can buy your dream house, please bear in mind - if properties price do crash, what caused it? Likely to be economic depression, etc. -> means your JOB is at stake, your income is uncertain and Banks will be recalling loans rather lending. Unless you are sitting on a pile of cash, can you still afford the house after 50% discount? (this is what is currently happening in some parts of US). Yes, I get flamed for making the above comment but I just want fellow forumers to be realistic.
To end, I wish to state I am not a property speculator hoping for house prices to increase. In fact, a drop in property prices will be good for me - I get to buy properties cheap. BUT I have to be pragmatic on the whole situation - IMHO, unless the whole world goes into another deep recession, interest rate increases significantly or political/social upheaval in M'sia (anything is possible), properties prices in KV will continue its uptrend in 2011 (at lower rate than 2H2009 and 2010 because of a higher base). I am NOT asking people to jump into properties and I do believe the prices are definitely NOT cheap or even "bubblish" in certain areas/projects. But we need to be more aware and realistic of how the markets work and do not get suckered...

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+1 well said.