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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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surf-it
post Aug 5 2010, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(shanelai @ Jul 29 2010, 05:19 PM)
Bcoz you will end up buying at higher price which the actual value is not. You may get 2 unit instead of 1 unit if the property value drop by let say 50%? smile.gif
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value drop 50%? highly unlikely....unless those super luxury condo which are speculated deeply...then no commen cool.gif
surf-it
post Aug 9 2010, 02:13 PM

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interesting theory about the Global Reset. But I always thought that, houses are still considerably affordable in KV area.

See, if you earn 2k/month, then you stay apartment first lar...who told you to stay landed?

And if you earn 5k, then stay condominium la or buy leasehold...sub-sale lar...nobody want u to stay new development also...

and if you earn 10k, finally 500k sounds reasonable isn't it?

The point is, there's always choice out there in KV. We have land, but in prime area the land is very very scarce, that is where the "premium" price come from...

Those new development where developer set sky-high price...that one I really think got speculated a bit...

just my worthless 2 cents...
surf-it
post Aug 13 2010, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Aug 13 2010, 12:29 AM)
I like Dr. Doom's view. breath of fresh air.

and as Kain_Sicilian said. most properties in klang valley are way overpriced.
1 million ringgit for a crappy double storey terrace?
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you are talking about prime area aren't you.

Cheras Mahkota, 22x75 double storey = 300k

Urbanization process is like that, when the city developing, prime area will go up to make space for middle to upper class.

new comer? stay in condo, or real estate further away...
That's reality
surf-it
post Aug 13 2010, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Aug 13 2010, 05:46 PM)
still got cheap terrace in prime area.... get single storey, or 18x65 double storey...
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That's right. But one thing I discover by researching properties is that, nowadays standard size single storey (22x70 above) cost more than double storey 18x65....
not sure why...maybe 18x65 really look sempit?

And also single storey in prime area isn't cheap either, Taman Tun 500k for intermediate, Bangsar 700-800k for intermeddiate....
I guess nowadays ppl tend to compare single storey to new condo development, when the condo price is high, single storey follows....
of cz I meant those FREEHOLD magic word one


Added on August 13, 2010, 11:12 pm
QUOTE(Onemorething @ Aug 13 2010, 08:42 PM)
I would agree with this poster however one thing Malaysian's are not used too is a RE market that has gone down.  This is typical of a developing nation and basic urban development and suburban development 101.

You have to be purchasing the right properties at the right time.  The more suburban properties tend to be less expensive upfront and deemed affordable but you have to calculate the cost vs. time of commute, unknown future development around you or lack there of and therefore risk of stagnation or worse if the area does not get developed properly via right mix of residential and commercial and community linked to ideal infrastructure and road system.

If we look at HK or SING we can see clear evidence of ups and downs and how they occur.  Malaysia is in a much better place right now with development over the last 10 years, especially the last 3-5 which has escalated RE prices but at a level of unaffordability greater than developed nations which is a red flag for me.

I believe the top has been put in for the developed areas in KL and surrounding which has driven up suburban areas.  Remember RE for 90% of the population is an emotional purchase.  When the emotion shifts as we have seen in the developed nations, there is not stopping the downside.  Without strong unemployment there is no stong RE market and without a strong RE market there is limited consumer spending.

For me it is simple, I'm watching listings, the amount of them vs. previous months, asking prices, selling prices and how long a property takes to sell.  This trend is starting to show.  Anyone looking to buy and rent clearly see it's not worth it today.  If purchased 3 years ago still okay but when the correction comes, it will take them out potentially as when prices goes down so do rentals and this is enough to drive your motivation to sell.

The developed nations are spiralling right now and low interest rates dont matter.  Spriralling could occur in HK or SING but unlikely in Malaysia which is a good thing but a long drawn out 20%+ avg drop is not out of the question.

Spiralling nations will face 50%!

For Malaysia, 20% down predictions I'm coined Dr. Doom.

For the developed nations they call these corrections! 

Example, just after the crash I watched a property in Damansara Heights start at RM6.5M, then dropped each consecutive month by RM500K per (for 3 months only) to a final asking price of RM5M.  I offered RM4.2M, the property sold for RM4.5M.  At this low from ask to sell, that's 30%!  Listing in this area are now triple what they were a few months ago, the market is repeating it's cycle now all the global stimulus is running out so I'm liquid and ready!  2-3 years will the time to buy!  Right now and for the next few months is the window to sell.
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well said buddy, but in your opinion, is this correction going to affect matured area landed property as well? not taman tun and bangsar those sky high price, I am talking about places like Taman Desa, OUG which the price escalate quite steadily...

This post has been edited by surf-it: Aug 13 2010, 11:12 PM
surf-it
post Aug 14 2010, 12:03 PM

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Most of the rental of landed properties already cannot cover the mortgage, is that normal?
surf-it
post Aug 30 2010, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(kelvin667 @ Aug 30 2010, 09:38 AM)
The government are proposing max 80% margin financing. I believe this is to slowdown the high inflation rate jacked up by investor. This is mere following China move to press down property price by implementing minimum 40% down-payment in China. Initially I believe they are slowing the property prices by increasing the OPR, thus BLR but this mean also bursting the bubble earlier as most people who bought under lower BLR will face a higher loan installment. However, this move will also penalise property purchaser for own stay as not all can get 80% due to OMV and may get slash by bank to 70%. That mean someone going take out 20 - 30% down - payment to purchase a house. Let look at a typical 400,000 property =

20% x 400,000 =                80,000
Estimate s&p fee + stamp = 14,000
loan agreement =                5000
valuation fee =                    1000 
                                        ________
                                        100,000
                                        ________

Almost 25% if one get full 80% margin financing, what if can't get OMV due to high prices jacked up by investor?

Just sharing my view
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Hi bro kelvin, do you mind sharing the link which stated this Government intention?

I agree 80% is a double edge sword, at the same time of curbing investor (well, the cash rich one is still unaffected), it will heavily impact own stay buyer, especially fresh graduates, how can they fork out that much of cash? So asking/borrowing from parents will be the only way...
surf-it
post Sep 1 2010, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Sep 1 2010, 10:42 AM)
last time graduate from U means no need worry about food and place to stay, now fresh graduates need to save hard to pay down payment...

what is going on...
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Last time not many "graduates", now Every youngster in the midvalley are "graduate"...so Graduate = Citizen...

There are plentiful of houses below 300k (Sub-sale). with the 40 years loan accessibility, one month still lesser than RM1k? Why is houses not affordable in Klang valley? Of cz, the only thing u have to sacrifice is...."The Distance + Jam"

In most of the prime areas, the house price is supported by the strong demand.....not all areas though I agree, some area of cz got fry a bit....
surf-it
post Sep 8 2010, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(robertngo @ Sep 7 2010, 03:28 PM)
KL property being 13 time annual income is just crazy, how to sustain this kind of increase.
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You haven't mentioned about Penang? And how do you benchmark against 13 times income? using what salary? which property? What about an apartment unit rather other landed?

I would say the market for property is still considered not worst yet. Although there are speculation around, but hey what you earn is what you get.

3k earner - get a 200k apartment
combined 2 x 3k earner - now you are eligible for 300-400k landed

Isn't that bad right? Of cz 300-400k you can't stay in prime area, we are talking about sub-sales in suburban.
surf-it
post Nov 29 2010, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Nov 29 2010, 10:52 AM)
u think majority so rich meh, the young guy (between 20 - 29 yrs) majority who can affort the house is supported by family, meaning to said 1st & 2nd generation resources support the 3rd generations (their loving son/daughter). generally 3rd g with salary about RM2k - RM4k (plus car loan, makan-makan) how to pay a loan min RM2500 month after month for RM500k property,  i said majority.... may be 1% or less young guy is "pak sau heng ga" only. smile.gif tis is wat i heard from many ppl...

also dun think 1/2 generation so rich woh, they also need to sell their resources (house/real estate) to support the follow ing generation, simply just small house change to bigger house, plus debts...
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with the extended loan period 40 years, 500k loan is now RM1.8k per month. Let say young couple working together, one person 2.5k. Two person got 5k, then can afford it. Abit tight, but it is possible...
surf-it
post Nov 30 2010, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Nov 29 2010, 05:18 PM)
Unfortunately your points are from being valid. If you look at those semi-D or terrace houses in Seremban, middle of Perak, or Sabah / Sarawak, you will see that they are being sold around RM130k while those similar houses in Klang Valley are sold around RM500k-RM700k ... though the material / design / furnishing are almost the same. Don't forget also that petrol price is the same in those places as well, in fact material costs might even be higher there due to logistics costs and economy of scale!

So now ask youself? Is Klang Valley running out of land? Far from it ... then by economics of supply / demand, the price will fall quite dramatically if the bubble burtsts!

------------
PropWall
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Klang Valley is not running out of land, but is running out of PRIME land. open up google map, tell me how many more terraces/things you build around bangsar/ttdi/ss2/oug ?

Of course, I have to agree that in some satellite areas of KL, such as kajang, kampung subang...etc now selling 500k for a d/s intermeddiate terrace is abit unacceptable.

btw, comparing seremban and kl is obviously not a fair comparison. we are talking about why other areas surrounding the New York City is much cheaper than New York city....

Because it is a City, and KL is a capital of the country where majority of the economic activities happen.
Hope that make sense, and no offence!
surf-it
post Dec 14 2010, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(tzyyyang @ Dec 13 2010, 11:32 PM)
not sure whn they are going to stop goreng the property market..
I live in JB and I found that it is quite hard for me to find a single storey terrace house that cost me less than RM160k..

Some more, sub-sales unit will surely need to do some renovations.. Hence, easily total cost will boost up to nearly RM200k..

The price is really not encouraging for those youngster who wants to have their own house.. Not sure whether gomen can do something to assist lower income ppl to secure their house, especially in town area, things are too expensive..
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160k for sst is considered as SUPERB cheap in KL..haha..
surf-it
post Dec 15 2010, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(macyhouse @ Dec 15 2010, 11:30 AM)
I want to blame them .. but it won't be fair .. looked at google map & wikimapia
Land in Klang Valley is getting fully developed .. the value is going to go up ..
Buy a bit far away from KL liao ..  nod.gif
I can give  mad.gif  mad.gif  mad.gif  on public transportation on them .. that is valid ..
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Good & valid point. Instead of complaining about the price, look for the best financing option with the balance of affordable monthly commitment.

Come on, if KL price is expensive, go to Kajang, Cheras Batu 9, Klang, Far-east Puchong. You still can get DSL at 250-300k.
Nobody can stop the process of urbanisation....

worth only 0.02$
surf-it
post Dec 17 2010, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(blahnik @ Dec 15 2010, 06:00 PM)
i.need.a.house.in.pj. the price is ridiculous. i can't even get a decent 2 storey terrace at 700k!!! sigh.
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If you don't mind single storey, I believe you still can get decent one below 500k.
surf-it
post Jan 10 2011, 09:34 AM

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[quote=chabalang,Jan 9 2011, 10:31 AM]
[/quote]
Basically, inflation factor is the one driving properties price currently.

Cash rich person fear cash losing value, find hard asset to invest to protect their wealth.

People see inflation, automatically expect everything price goes up, including properties, so speculate, buy.

Developers see inflation, time to jack up price.

A house loan of 100K become lesser than 100K in an inflaton situation <-- get what I mean.

It is all because money become smaller.
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[/quote]
Well said, cherroy. Two key drivers of current property prices: (i) low interest rate (a friend commented that it's a sin not to take house mortgage with such cheap REAL interest rate) and expectations that the interest rate situation will remain benign (no doubt, Asia is having strong growth and some countries are likely to increase interest rates to deal with inflationary pressures, particularly from FOOD/commodities. But the interest rate increase will be relatively mild (a few %), use of currency appreciation is more likely to fend inflation as a huge spike in interest will undermine growth and remember US/Europe are stuck in doldrums ; and (ii) inflationary pressure. In Malaysia, construction and renovation costs have been going UP. With removal of subsidies and large infrastructure projects in the pipeline, you can imagine the inflationary pressure on building materials. Just to give an example, during my house renovation (in 2010) - the prices of cement, sand, paint and steel were increased not once but several times.

Not withstanding the above, I have to admit that some properties are "bubblish" - don't wish to name and identify location (I may be wrong to name - I laughed at my friend who bought a link house for RM1 mln in 2009 at a "not prime location" - to me, prime location is Damansara Heights and Bangsar, now this friend is laughing at me because the last transacted price in that area is RM1.5 mln). IMHO, some of the new launches are priced at ridiculous levels - close to a million for a link house in location more than 15 kilometres from KL!

After reading/following this thread for a few days, more of the forumers are hoping for the price to drop (probably the forumers are younger and more likely to buy their first house). YES, landed properties prices in good areas are becoming prohibitive for the younger generation. To me, it's simple demand and supply. Land supply in good areas will remain SAME but the demand is getting stronger with population growth and top 10%-20% population earning higher Real income. In contrast, high-rise properties price appreciation has not been as steep or even stagnated in certain locations - but in M'sia, high-rise are normally poorly maintained - a lot of them are in quite sad conditions after 10 years.

Anyway, asset inflation (house price increase) in a growing country is a normal thing but it must be in tandem with income level, employment level, mortgage affordability/accessibility and etc. This round of increase is mainly driven by (i) cheap interest rate - mortgage affordability and (ii) inflationary expectations. No doubt, we did see landed properties prices in better locations rocketed away since 2H2009 and it is fast becoming out of reach of the mass population. There are still a lot of properties (albeit high-rise) in the 250,000 to 500,000 band but there may not be in your preferred location. If you look at JPPH report in 1H2010, only 2.1% and 6.9% of the residential properties sold in Malaysia are above RM1 mln and RM500,000 respectively - likely to be concentrated in KV and Penang.

As for those wishing for a price crash so that you can buy your dream house, please bear in mind - if properties price do crash, what caused it? Likely to be economic depression, etc. -> means your JOB is at stake, your income is uncertain and Banks will be recalling loans rather lending. Unless you are sitting on a pile of cash, can you still afford the house after 50% discount? (this is what is currently happening in some parts of US). Yes, I get flamed for making the above comment but I just want fellow forumers to be realistic.

To end, I wish to state I am not a property speculator hoping for house prices to increase. In fact, a drop in property prices will be good for me - I get to buy properties cheap. BUT I have to be pragmatic on the whole situation - IMHO, unless the whole world goes into another deep recession, interest rate increases significantly or political/social upheaval in M'sia (anything is possible), properties prices in KV will continue its uptrend in 2011 (at lower rate than 2H2009 and 2010 because of a higher base). I am NOT asking people to jump into properties and I do believe the prices are definitely NOT cheap or even "bubblish" in certain areas/projects. But we need to be more aware and realistic of how the markets work and do not get suckered... rclxub.gif
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[/quote]

+1 well said.

surf-it
post Jan 17 2011, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jan 16 2011, 02:02 PM)
Attended CIMB mega auction yesterday, the bidders bidding like NO tomorrow, some hot properties end up >2x from the original reserved prices. I think BBB euphoria will last few more years.
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haha, like +1. This is something I have observed as well, ppl bidding like no tomorrow to a point that auction property is not really "below market price" anymore...aiyoo aunty uncle....
surf-it
post Feb 19 2011, 06:10 PM

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Example.

BK5:
2006 - 350k
2011 - 500k

I didn't know our income level/inflation raised by 50k a year....
Sad...

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