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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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robertngo
post Aug 23 2010, 05:32 PM

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i think now the price keep going up is supported by speculator, once people realize there is not enough people that can buy property at the inflated price point everyone holding property at the time will be screw. especially those that make their loan while the value is the highest, their house value will be underwater like the home owner in US experience after the sub prime crisis. you cannot refinance and sale you house at this point because the loan is worth more that your house, unless you have a lot of cash stash somewhere else.


Added on August 23, 2010, 5:34 pm
QUOTE(kelvin667 @ Aug 23 2010, 12:38 PM)
Guys,

What happen when

1] Supply > Demand
2] Price increase sharply over a short time, mostly by investment and not for own stay. (No real demand)
3] Market is in the volatile condition of recovering and yet prices of RE and stocks are better than before market collapse

Buy only if you have holding power,
Always be prepared for a economy crisis and if this time the crisis hit in Malaysia, many ppl will be affected. Those who affected will be those who being layoff. You will only be in recession if you get laid off or your business get affected by it.
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i think more likely a economy crisis that are trigger by the bust of property price bubble.

This post has been edited by robertngo: Aug 23 2010, 05:34 PM
robertngo
post Aug 23 2010, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(Danielle Lav @ Aug 23 2010, 05:48 PM)
so, whats the real reason ppl goreng the property price?
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for money of course.
robertngo
post Aug 23 2010, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(Caitlin @ Aug 23 2010, 09:44 PM)
Same as Red Coffee... i'm a very conservative person. When I started working, I cannot afford to buy any properties myself. When I have enough saving, the price went so high up that I don't think it worth it. I'm always waiting for the price to drop, especially after US ecomony crisis 1-2 years ago, but it didn't drop. At the end, working 5 years in Penang I got nothing.

Now I've just moved to KL, and started looking around to buy a house or apartment for myself.... still I think the price is just too crazy!! Previously I thought property price in Penang was too high, but now in KL, it's even worst.....

Anyway, I'm working near Damansara... any good recommendation? I'm not sure if I still continue waiting for the burst (might end up with nothing again), or just go ahead to buy.... But with my budget, don't think i can get good apartment around that area... I'm still praying for the bubble burst to come!!!!
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this is the problem isnt it, if the normal working people are price out of the market, who will be buying the property if not for speculator, the market is then growing without solid foundation.
robertngo
post Aug 25 2010, 11:57 AM

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is there a survey in malaysia similar to this one on the melbourne house affordability?

user posted image
robertngo
post Aug 25 2010, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Aug 25 2010, 07:31 PM)
quite sure we wont be to far off VS Melbourne... but interestingly if one look at from 1965 till 2010 :

1. Salary grew 20-fold.

2. Property prices grew 50-fold.

3. Largest drop in prop prices is less than 10% YOY in 2008. And that was after price increased around 20% in 2007. And in 2009 prices jump another 30%.
Bet those who were listening to naysayers in MelB and waited to buy props............... must be damn pissed today. wink.gif
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but much of the increase of price come during 1999 when interest rate drop and GST reduced making price skyrocket. for 1965 till 1998 the salary grow 14 fold and property price grew 20 fold. the price still within affordable level. the aussie are complaining and the aussie gov even need to launch several official inquiry on the problem of unaffordability of house.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble

i am still waiting for our gov to act on cooling the property speculation activity.

if anything the price of property in malaysia is even more expensive for average malaysia compare with the aussie, most of malaysia property stock are terrace house, most of the aussie house are bungalow

user posted image

the average price of house in KL already knocking on 400k last year, the average household may be earning 4k a month (sorry no data available for 2010, only see survey in 2007 that average household income is 3.6k)

This post has been edited by robertngo: Aug 25 2010, 09:27 PM
robertngo
post Aug 26 2010, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(suang @ Aug 26 2010, 12:34 AM)
if you are buying a house for own stay, spend some time looking for the ideal place ie what you want from a  house in terms of location, design,type,quality,feng shui,amenities and what have you. once you find that house and you have the means, buy it.
dont worry too much about timing...............
buying for investment is a different  ball game altogether-
timing is obviously crucial here.
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if buy for own stay find a house you like and can afford the payment even if interest rate was to jump to double digit like 98, then can buy it.



This post has been edited by robertngo: Aug 26 2010, 03:27 PM
robertngo
post Sep 1 2010, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(cloudwan0 @ Sep 1 2010, 10:19 AM)
ya, very cheap if exchange in currency, WTF, y malaysia like to compare with those high income country. y dont try to compare to others SEA country like indo, thailand.... SG fresh graduate degree holder get 3.5k salary, wat about m'sia. in SG if mid income dont have enough $ to buy private condo they still can go for government condo which price is below 500k. wat malaysia got? low cost flat and low cost house only for those family total income <3k. so wanna compare with HK, ya their house very the expensive, so? they dont have enough land, HK salary is 10x malaysia salary. wat u still want to compare?
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the brain dead minister that want to increase our property price to high income country before we have increase the actual income of the people first. does a country become advance with higher property price rclxub.gif

is the housing ministry aim is to increase profit for developer and speculator or to ensure affordable quality housing are available to malaysian?

This post has been edited by robertngo: Sep 1 2010, 12:38 PM
robertngo
post Sep 3 2010, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(0106127 @ Sep 2 2010, 01:00 PM)
YES housing prices is very very afordable in malaysia. it is one of the lowest among developing country. every one can buy a house in malaysia easily. those people that are making noise is only great in their "noise" and would like to live in super link, semi D and bungalow.

a basic 3 room flat average 60k with monthly installment RM300. those that are making noise, is just plain CHOOSY
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actually RM 300 would be expensive when the poverty line is about RM 700, and factory worker even in selangor are being pay as low as RM 600, so these kind of most basic flat are also too expensive for them.
robertngo
post Sep 3 2010, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(106127 @ Sep 3 2010, 11:55 AM)
factory worker RM600? are you sure? where can u hire such a cheap factory workers? i need too.
please provide contact.
QUOTE
A tale of twin addictions: ‘Cheap stuff and foreign workers’

By Sheridan Mahavera

BANGI, March 30 — Wanted Urgently: Electronic engineers for Bangi-based multi-national corporation manufacturing capacitors. Starting salary: RM2,500. Benefits: full medical, housing and personal loans, and a RM200 monthly transport allowance.

Sounds like a plum job for our engineering graduates right? The employer in question, Nichicon (Malaysia) sdn Bhd, doesn’t think it was attractive enough.

Its human resources manager Mohd Taufik Abdullah claims despite advertising everywhere and postings on job sites, the company could not get even one Malaysian to fill the 10 posts available.

“In the end, we were forced to hire Filipino engineers through an agent we knew.

“Yes, we hear it all the time too, that universities and colleges produce thousands of engineers a year. But where were they when we were looking for them?” asks Mohd Taufik.

Alfred James says the manpower shortage is still acute and multinational companies are already pulling out of Malaysia and going to Thailand, Vietnam and China. — Pictures by Choo Choy May

That industries are addicted to foreigners to do the menial, repetitive, tiring, dirty, hazardous but critical jobs is not a new thing. But highly-paid and skilled posts like engineers?

And it’s not just engineers, says Mohd Taufik and his colleague Noor Azman Abdullah of Hosiden Electronics (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd.

Factories in the Bangi area, where most of the big-name electronic factories in Selangor are based, are having problems hiring local clerks, technicians and junior executives.

This is not the tip of the iceberg. This is the iceberg, claims factories and the associations who represent them in Selangor, Malaysia’s most industrialised state.

The government froze new permits for foreign workers in September 2009. It was partly to cure this addiction to foreigners and to protect retrenched Malaysian workers during the economic recession.

But companies say that there are no locals to hire and the freeze is severely crippling them.

To merely say this is a problem that needs a solution is to underestimate the dimensions of the issue. In a way, the addiction to foreigners is intertwined with how the Malaysian economy has grown over the past two decades.

More accurately, the dependency is a result of the tremendous explosion of the middle-class in the 70s and the highly-qualified generation of the 80s and 90s that was born to that strata of society.

The continued need for foreigners has also spawned a cancerous network of agents, corrupt officials and unscrupulous manufacturers that seem to operate behind the formal economy and which feeds its existence.

And if this manpower imbalance is not dealt with really, really soon, it will tighten the snares around Selangor and the rest of Malaysia, and prevent it from ever escaping the middle-income trap.

“It’s not just our graduates who are leaving”

The companies are already leaving, declares Selangor Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers chairman Tan Sri Alfred James.

“At the end of last year, an electronics giant in Bangi could not get the 1,000 workers it requested. They went straight to the government but the minister they met couldn’t help them. In the end, they packed up and left.

Noor Azman (left) and Mohd Taufik says manufacturing firms are now finding it even more difficult to hire locals for non-assembly jobs such as clerks, supervisors and engineers. — Pictures by Choo Choy May

“They had wanted to expand their base in Malaysia. They have been here for decades and had established themselves yet they couldn’t expand because they couldn’t get workers,” says James.

The shortage over the past several months after the permit freeze have been the most acute. Though there is a freeze, companies can only apply for foreigners if they can demonstrate that they have tried and failed to hire locals.

According to an FMM survey in September 2009, 94 companies in the state reported that they had a total of 11,580 vacancies for unskilled posts. Of those, 4,991 were in the electrical and electronics sector.

James claims that in the beginning of this year there were up to 13,000 vacancies.

Though the government said that about 100,000 permits had been approved to fill this critical shortage, James says that it is not enough.

“It’s 100,000 workers for the whole of Malaysia. The 13,000 we need is only for the industrial sector in Selangor. It does not count the services sector, the restaurants, the small shops that need workers. “

James contends that there is a lag time between getting permit approvals and actually getting the workers into the factories — a process that can take up to a year.

The companies in the survey claimed that they needed foreigners because locals “shied away or did not stay long” in “3D jobs” — dirty, dangerous and demeaning.

Another reason for not hiring locals was the “high rate of absenteeism and turnover.”

More electronics giants have threatened to move their operations out of Malaysia if the government cannot help them ease their worker shortages.

Electronic and electrical firms are especially important to Selangor as amongst all the state’s industries, they contribute the most to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Industries on a whole contribute about 37.3 per cent to Selangor’s GDP.

“This is a major reason deterring new investments,” claims James. “We’ve had companies who want to open up in Malaysia but who have turned back when they saw the manpower problems.”

[Factory workers not only complain of low wages. Sometimes their employers “transfer them” to an outsourcing company that doesn’t pay them benefits and allowances. — Pictures by Choo Choy May]

Factory workers not only complain of low wages. Sometimes their employers “transfer them” to an outsourcing company that doesn’t pay them benefits and allowances. — Pictures by Choo Choy May
The same old tune

Veteran union organiser G. Rajasekaran has heard all of this before and scoffs at them.

“There are 400,000 school leavers every year.,100,000 of them will pursue tertiary education and that leaves 300,000 people entering the job market.

“These are SPM-qualified kids and they are coming to Penang, Johor and the Klang valley for jobs. If you pay them enough they will work in your factory,” insists G. Rajasekaran, secretary-general of Malaysian Trade Union Congress, the umbrella body for all private sector unions.

His point is seen in the wages of 24 of 94 companies in the Selangor FMM survey:

More than half (17) offered a basic salary of between RM400 to RM700 per month. Two of them offered only RM20 to RM50 a day in wages. One company offered between RM800 to RM900 a month and another was prepared to pay RM1,000 a month.

“The government had set the minimum pension for retirees at RM720 per month. The reasoning is that no one can live on less.

“So if it is acknowledged that this is the minimum someone needs to live on, why are these factories only paying an average salary of RM500?”

Though companies claim that with various allowances and overtime, workers can take home close to RM900, Rajasekaran counters that these extras pay for the cost of going to work. The transport allowance, for instance, evaporates like the petrol fumes.

In reality, can you reasonably get someone to live on RM600 a month in the Klang Valley, Penang or Johor since these are where the industries are, asks Rajasekaran.

Which is why he repeats MTUC’s clarion call for the government to set the minimum wage at RM900 a month to suit Malaysia’s cost of living. Thailand and Vietnam, for instance, where some of these companies are threatening to relocate to, have minimum wage rates.

However, Selangor FMM’s James counters this by saying that there is no guarantee that raising wages would get locals to work.

Firms complain that locals who do assembly-line work are unwilling to work long hours and some are tardy. — Pictures by Choo Choy May

The problem with a minimum wage, James argues, is that it will make employers band together and not raise salaries.

“You must let wages be market-driven,” he says.

The price of more shopping malls

Noor Azman has clocked in close to 30 years as a human resource manager in a few international manufacturers and believes that this is all a cycle.

“When I started out in the 80s, every kid from the kampung and Felda schemes came to Selangor to work in the factories. And then it became harder to hire them in the early 90s and we started sourcing workers from countries poorer than us.

“Our kids on the other hand are now factory workers, cooks and waiters in Singapore and the UK because wages there are higher.”

In other words, we are the “Indons and Banglas” of the UK. And it’s really not hard to figure out how this happened.

Another senior manager of an electronics firm does not say it out right but it would be hard for his company — a component manufacturer for all manner of electronics like remote controls, phones, computers and refrigerators — to raise wages.

The mean salary of production operators he says had been raised to RM650 to better entice locals. But a higher salary would eat into the company’s operating costs and crimp its ability to compete with rivals.

In other words, there is a connection between our love for cheap electronics and Malaysia’s low wages for unskilled labour.

MTUC’s G. Rajasekaran says it is unreasonable to expect to Malaysians to live on the paltry wages being paid by Malaysian companies. — Pictures by Choo Choy May

This is not just a Selangor or even a Malaysian problem.

A December 2004 report in BusinessWeek magazine highlighted how US manufacturers of state-of-the-art products such as precision machine tools and circuit boards for military equipment, were literally dying from Chinese imports.

The American businesses interviewed in the report said their Chinese rivals were able to make their products at 30 to 50 per cent less because Chinese workers were paid less than Americans.

The more “developed” Malaysia becomes and the more college and university graduates it produces, the more the country will need foreign workers, Selangor FMM’s James says.

It’s no accident that the country started importing more and more foreigners in the early 90s — when affordable private colleges blossomed everywhere and swallowed the masses of youths born to the New Economic Policy generation.

“Every child wants to study and this creates a vacuum in terms of labour,” says James. The vacuum is not just in factories but seen in the “sales assistant wanted” posters in the numerous shopping malls sprouting all over the country.

“Who is going to fill these jobs? The reality is that there may not be enough Malaysians.

“And if we do not want foreign workers then we must make do with fewer malls, fewer restaurants, fewer hypermarkets and fewer luxuries.”

Added on September 3, 2010, 12:13 pm
QUOTE(106127 @ Sep 3 2010, 11:55 AM)
pelangi damansara. rental 550-600 per month. sales price around 60k
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pelangi damansara is in bandar utama? not kota damansara??

This post has been edited by robertngo: Sep 3 2010, 12:13 PM
robertngo
post Sep 7 2010, 03:28 PM

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KL property being 13 time annual income is just crazy, how to sustain this kind of increase.
robertngo
post Sep 8 2010, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(surf-it @ Sep 8 2010, 11:45 AM)
You haven't mentioned about Penang? And how do you benchmark against 13 times income? using what salary? which property? What about an apartment unit rather other landed?

I would say the market for property is still considered not worst yet. Although there are speculation around, but hey what you earn is what you get.

3k earner - get a 200k apartment
combined 2 x 3k earner - now you are eligible for 300-400k landed

Isn't that bad right? Of cz 300-400k you can't stay in prime area, we are talking about sub-sales in suburban.
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the ratio is mention in the article MFLooi posted.
robertngo
post Sep 8 2010, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(0106127 @ Sep 8 2010, 03:43 PM)
its still very affordable
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affordable should less that 5 times annual salary.
robertngo
post Sep 9 2010, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(winner @ Sep 9 2010, 08:29 PM)
If you like the locality and product, just buy it as market will not wait for you.
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before the sub prime crisis in the US everyone also said like that and believe property value will never drop. must buy now later cannot afford already.
robertngo
post Sep 9 2010, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(amco @ Sep 9 2010, 08:59 PM)
China major cities are 30 times. The bull in properties will continue for years in malaysia before burst together with china, hk, sg, th etc
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malaysia dont have a massive population and booming economy like china.

you see china are now 30 times, this causing huge problem to the people there to buy house in major cities, need to pay three generation to clear the loan sweat.gif

a market where the government have done a very good job in controlling the rise of house price is germany, they ratio is just 3 times even in berlin.

This post has been edited by robertngo: Sep 9 2010, 11:43 PM
robertngo
post Sep 10 2010, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(106127 @ Sep 10 2010, 01:29 AM)
where can u get that? show some proof
user posted image

many financial advisor recommend only buying house less than 3 times your annual salary.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/money101/lesson8/

https://www.nwcu.com/knowledge_center/tips/...ing_a_home.aspx

http://www.mymoneyhelp.com/education-cente...rdability.shtml


Added on September 10, 2010, 2:13 am
QUOTE(106127 @ Sep 10 2010, 01:29 AM)
properties in asia should continue to climb without worries of bursting. anyone who want to wait till it burst can wait as long as you can.
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what is the basis for support this kind of increase when the income did not rise as fast?

This post has been edited by robertngo: Sep 10 2010, 02:13 AM
robertngo
post Sep 13 2010, 08:22 PM

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QUOTE(klbull @ Sep 13 2010, 05:10 PM)
Check out One Menurung condominium project adjacent to Bangsar Shopping Complex, KL, and you will appreciate how a speculator caught on the wrong foot can lose RM400k more or less. Great location, big luxurious units 3-8000 ft2, now largely vacant with many units looking for tenants and buyers. Selling price? Asking around RM750-1250 psf still.
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last week go pass by the place going to BSC, dont see any people there. hmm.gif
robertngo
post Sep 14 2010, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Sep 14 2010, 03:08 AM)
That is the magic question!

RE is not liquid so just say no!

Preferred shares - Banking - Utilities yielding 5-7% is fine!

5% Gold 10% Silver

Cash - USD YEN SWISSY in that order!

Agriculture & Aquaculture feeding asia

Volatility is the play and if you dont day trade stay clear of it. 

Remember at this stage a 5-7% return is excellent!

A 10% loss will be manageable!

Stay Liquid always to move with the volatility and maintain a flush position and you will be a star!
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why you want to buy banking share when you think property bubble going to burst, it will drop like stone when the burst happen.

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