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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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preego88
post Aug 11 2010, 07:58 PM

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about 7 yrs ago my friend bought a unit at DPC first launch at 450k. i thought he was crazy when everything surrounding that area was selling at 250-300. last year he sold it for 850k, but recently apparently transacted around 1.2mil.
i was starting to survey for house to buy 2 yrs ago. i settled on something 660k+. now as i am staying here, somewhere around the neighbour sold at 1mil last month.
it's a supply and demand thing. property drop 50%???? who is the seller?
bank lend money based on the property value. they will never put themselves into trouble. if they think the property is overpriced, they will only loan 50-80%.... anything that put the risk on the buyer, not the bank.
soon there will be oil price hike again. then the food, sugar, (steel, cement, bricks) and everything else. anyone actually saint enuf to think the developers will absorb the cost?
So we live in a low income country now. why bother compare to US or Europe. They earn 2-3k usd/euro a month and they pay less than 1k for laptops. then they pay 10-30k for cars.
you want to compare us to them?
somehow i couldn't agree more.... we live in 'bolehland'....
preego88
post Aug 12 2010, 06:09 AM

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QUOTE(return78 @ Aug 11 2010, 09:06 PM)
Try to recall what happen during 1987, 1997, 2008 crisis.
> What do you expect for the ppl who bought 1m with 90% loan lose his job?
> What do you expect if BBB mode investor / flipper can't up keep with interest?

Malaysian had never gone thru a big correction in property market and most of the ppl only think price always go one way.
A sharp correction will cause lot ppl hold an negative-equity properties like what was happened in HK earlier and US nowadays.
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If you want to compare to US again.....
Asia is a 'saver's region. Traditionally the Asians save and the US spends. They spend what belongs to the future and Asians save it up for them.
Of course there is some new breed of Asians who Americanized themselves spending the money they can't afford.
So it is the risk they take.
I am always looking for the fella... the ppl who bought 1m with 90% loan lose his job..... always wanting to buy a property from this fella.
This is what the property investers call the 'good buy'. Never that easy to find one these days. The bank will keep it for themselves, or lelong it buy end up selling it at market price.
Those who try to goreng, risk goreng them selves.
Those who choose to 'buy what they cant afford' , esp the ppl who bought 1m with 90% loan and the 'risk' of loosing his job...risk goreng them selves.
Those who want a house for themselves, finds it getting more and more difficult, especially if they... WAIT.
preego88
post Aug 12 2010, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(cloudwan0 @ Aug 12 2010, 11:09 AM)
bro, 'saver' region now only can apply to those 40's above malaysian, do u know malaysia got how many cc debt, u can try ask those 20's or 30's see how many ppl got cc debt, cc installment, car loan. asking them how much they spend for their food every day, how much they spend on IT gadget ever year, how much they spend for travelling every year.
you will find out most of them dont have much saving in bank. u can also see this happen in china, taiwan, korea, sg, and those asia country.
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unless you buy a house with CASH ...... is there any other way than incuring LOAN aka DEBTS??
pay your loan and you will find yourself proud owner of 1 or 2 properties at the age of retirement.
continue renting and you will find that you helped your house owner own another property at his retirement.
I guess job securities and how to have a steady income is not exactly in the text book so we can probably start another forum to discuss about not loosing your job...
and i am not hoping for the price of property to hike. the past has shown us it is not difficult to see what will happen 20-30 yrs to come.
like in the share market, speculators always got burn in the short term but imagine holding 10lot of Public bank share 30 yrs back...

just my 5cents.... i could be wrong...

This post has been edited by preego88: Aug 12 2010, 03:01 PM
preego88
post Sep 3 2010, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Sep 3 2010, 10:07 AM)
Spoken like a true politician...what else is he going to say!  Politicians + Banks + Brokers + RE Agents + Developers + Media defend policy and values until the bitter end...ask the western world. 

Remember, you can not have an Asian Centric View unless Asia has evolved to be the powerhouse next generation economy, that will only start after the Western World finally gives in to the move.  15 - 20 years away to start.  There is massive sovereign debt to be managed over the next 3-5 years that will put a final end to this cycle.  During this time, the destinations above will suffer badly especially China followed by HK and Sing.  Malaysia will not be spared with the exception of moderate corrections, 10-30% based on speculation/location.

I buy property when rates are high, tight lending in place etc as this means supply outstrips demand and prices fall to their lowest possible level.  This is the time to get in.  My suggestion to anyone who cannot afford to put down 30% right now is to stay out, rent, take the extra cash flow and save until this time occurs. 

Remember, a balanced portfolio should only include 40% of your net worth in RE, 60% should be in other balanced investements given your circumstances.  Just ask all the baby boomers right now with 85%+ of all net worth in RE if they can retire in the USA now, 5 or 10 years down the road?  Not! Dumping homes for cash where 3 more years of downturn in RE in USA is poised to take the market on avg. to 50% drop.  Smells just like QE in Japan the last 20 years and will happen to some extent in EUROzone and absolutely in UK.  Canada Aus NZ and China next to burst but coming in November mid terms USA.

This is only my opinion and for the value of those here who are not property investors but HOME buyers for personal use.  I'm a property investor and I choose to wait as well.
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I'd like to make a wild guess...
ONEMORETHING is probably wallaping the property market while asking u guys to stop buying and WAIT. rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif
While he buys and sell till government finally tightens all the rulez..... the poor 2-3k earners will forever be stucked in the 700sqf pigeon hole. rclxub.gif
Just a wild guess sweat.gif sweat.gif
preego88
post Sep 18 2010, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Sep 17 2010, 07:13 PM)
come on guys, get with the meaning, you need to sell the property first, find a buyer!  This is not liquid when it's a buyers market only when it's a sellers!  Ask California residents who are now taking a 60% hit on million dollar mcmansions as there are NO buyers and actually as I stated two weeks ago, in the month of July, there was not ONE transaction in the USA of greater than 500K.

Stocks, PM's even Currencies - Equities - Bonds can all be sold quickly if needed.  Your house, car, boat and antique Ming Vase, NOT!
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Guess you are a pro in the US RE market
Definately not in Asia Market.
People like you are not helping our RE market not even the most conservative ones
Malaysia is not The States.... not even near. No point comparing KL to NY or probably Seremban to Carlifornia.
RE in Malaysia is Healthy. There was a Hick Up this yr, moving above the trend of 7-10% appreciation over the past 30 yrs to ....a crazy 20-30 this yr.
You sure want us down with some SARS or H1N1.
fortunately we survived most of it...
I have invested in many properties over the years.
The advice i was given when i started work....

" i was young like you when i started working.... wandering why all the houses are overpriced (back in 80s)
now (10s) i am still asking myself the same question. nothing changed... except the price tag"

Good luck to all the buyers. Soon we will see ourselves like Japan or Hong Kong..... paying 3 generations for home loans.
Except.... we were quoted 50yrs lag behind Japan.
I hope i live to witness this statement....

This post has been edited by preego88: Sep 18 2010, 01:33 AM

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