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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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phang88
post May 26 2010, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ May 13 2010, 08:59 PM)
Chief, wasnt born with silver spoon, so I cant afford to make ANY mistakes. WB once said "No 1 rule of investment is never lose money". I have to get it right................. EVERY time, and thank God I've been very lucky so far.....  smile.gif
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Hi Pai,

I am new in RM. Some say fixed loan rate is better at this point of time while some say loan base on BLR is better,(current fixed rate is about 1% higher that discounted BLR rate). What would you say?

phang88
post Jun 7 2010, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ May 26 2010, 06:48 PM)
Generally if you are looking at long term charts, the VRM (Variable Rate Mortgage) or as refered to here as the BLR - xx will always be the better savings in the long run.  Further to this, the VRM in the Western World has been responsible for making property so affordable that it had most first time home buyers get in over their heads along with ZERO down deposits in which caused the RE bubble now deflated.  Fixed 30 year's at 5% cannot even bring these buyers back.  In the USA you can just walk away!

I found this which is a few years old.

Below info shows the Malaysia Base Lending Rate (BLR) for January of each year from year 1989 to year 2009.

BLR

2009 - 6.50
2008 - 6.75
2007 - 6.75
2006 - 6.00
2005 - 6.00
2004 - 6.00
2003 - 6.50
2002 - 6.50
2001 - 6.75
2000 - 6.75
1999 - 8.00
1998 - 10.50 - 12.27%
1997 - 9.25
1996 - 8.50
1995 - 6.60
1994 - 8.25
1993 - 9.50
1992 - 9.00
1991 - 7.50
1990 - 7.00
1989 - 7.00

From the record, it shows that the highest BLR Malaysia ever has is 12.27% in year 1998 and the lowest BLR is 6%. The average is 8.1%. Probably you can use this to justify whether it is better to take the fixed rate loan or the BLR - x% housing loan.
At this moment 2008, the BLR is 6.5%, next year 2009 should have a lower BLR but whether it will dive into a new lowest BLR rate that Malaysia ever has. We will wait and see.

With 2010 came 5.55 now 5.85% so unless we have a significant change in rates do to inflation, then variable is the way to go.  I still believe rates will stay low for a period of time 12-18 months and with Larry Summers hinting that a new stimulous program may be in the works for the US, you may see rates come back down in Malaysia.

On the flipside, if you find things getting quite inflationary, you may opt for a fixed mortgage when the time comes.

There are hidden costs in the fixed rate as well!
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Added on June 7, 2010, 6:11 pmThanks for the infor. hmm.gif

QUOTE(Onemorething @ May 26 2010, 06:48 PM)
Generally if you are looking at long term charts, the VRM (Variable Rate Mortgage) or as refered to here as the BLR - xx will always be the better savings in the long run.  Further to this, the VRM in the Western World has been responsible for making property so affordable that it had most first time home buyers get in over their heads along with ZERO down deposits in which caused the RE bubble now deflated.  Fixed 30 year's at 5% cannot even bring these buyers back.  In the USA you can just walk away!

I found this which is a few years old.

Below info shows the Malaysia Base Lending Rate (BLR) for January of each year from year 1989 to year 2009.

BLR

2009 - 6.50
2008 - 6.75
2007 - 6.75
2006 - 6.00
2005 - 6.00
2004 - 6.00
2003 - 6.50
2002 - 6.50
2001 - 6.75
2000 - 6.75
1999 - 8.00
1998 - 10.50 - 12.27%
1997 - 9.25
1996 - 8.50
1995 - 6.60
1994 - 8.25
1993 - 9.50
1992 - 9.00
1991 - 7.50
1990 - 7.00
1989 - 7.00

From the record, it shows that the highest BLR Malaysia ever has is 12.27% in year 1998 and the lowest BLR is 6%. The average is 8.1%. Probably you can use this to justify whether it is better to take the fixed rate loan or the BLR - x% housing loan.
At this moment 2008, the BLR is 6.5%, next year 2009 should have a lower BLR but whether it will dive into a new lowest BLR rate that Malaysia ever has. We will wait and see.

With 2010 came 5.55 now 5.85% so unless we have a significant change in rates do to inflation, then variable is the way to go.  I still believe rates will stay low for a period of time 12-18 months and with Larry Summers hinting that a new stimulous program may be in the works for the US, you may see rates come back down in Malaysia.

On the flipside, if you find things getting quite inflationary, you may opt for a fixed mortgage when the time comes.

There are hidden costs in the fixed rate as well!
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Added on June 7, 2010, 6:13 pm
QUOTE(Pai @ May 26 2010, 08:08 PM)
Actually using BLR will not give you an accurate assesment on MY's historical mortgage financing cost. One should look at actual cost of financing  (COF) for mortgages instead. An example, BLR was its lowest in 2004-2006, but our current COF is cheaper now despite the fact BLR is higher now VS 2004........
wink.gif
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Got it! Thanks rolleyes.gif


Added on June 7, 2010, 6:15 pm rclxub.gif
QUOTE(airline @ Jun 5 2010, 10:37 AM)
u sure u want fixed rate?
i still have a 5.5%lock in..
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This post has been edited by phang88: Jun 7 2010, 06:15 PM

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