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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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godutch
post Dec 21 2010, 10:52 AM

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Was naive and started to look for a place for own stay only two months ago and only found out that houses have been commoditized and prices are out of control. Speculators are taking away desperate buyers' hard earned $$ just like that. Don't know what to say.

Can't agree more with TheDoer's comments.

I think the government should hv more aggressive policy to stop excessive speculation, keeping an eye on those active property traders that make tonnes of money out out genuine buyers. the 70% cap obviously is not enuf.

But l do believe that whatever "extra and unreasonable gains" that the speculators took away, they will hv to pay it back, if not now in the future.

This post has been edited by godutch: Dec 21 2010, 10:54 AM
godutch
post Dec 21 2010, 11:29 AM

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Hi TheDoer, looks like we are in the same ship smile.gif

i was thinking maybe the government should come out with a matrix kind of tax scheme on Property, based on amount of profit as well as holding period of property, something like this:

<1Y <3Y <5Y <7Y <10Y >10Y

<RM 20K 30% 25% 20% 10% 5% 0%
<RM 50K 40% 35% 20% 15% 10% 2%
<RM100K 50% 40% 30% 20% 15% 5%

the figures are for illustration purpose only, i think this will be a better way to curb speculation activity compared to the 70% Cap. Speculators will now think twice before buying big time smile.gif
godutch
post Jan 7 2011, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jan 7 2011, 01:05 PM)
similarities between pyramid/ponzi schemes and property speculation?
>property backed up by real hard asset which the bank can foreclose when u bet wrong. how is ponzi similar? its backed up by wat? ponzi real hard arse? not forcloseable leh

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I don't quite understand why you are trying so hard to convince people here to buy (price won't drop) and saying no matter what you will not sell.?? no offence. smile.gif BTW, the point that there are always many buyers vs few sellers, can provide statistics to prove or not? what make you think that people will wanna pay you 40-80% more to buy your property?? are you the only one owning properties in this country? hmm.gif


Added on January 7, 2011, 1:44 pm
QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 7 2011, 12:35 PM)
two other things that are certain, increased cost of living through taxation both hidden and visible and the gap between rich and poor!

Consumers are being consumed by debt!!!!
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Cant agree more that consumers are being consumed by debt biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by godutch: Jan 7 2011, 01:51 PM
godutch
post Jan 14 2011, 10:34 AM

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a 50% hike in BLR for a house owner (buying for own stay) should be manageable, just spend less, shop less to mitigate the impact.

But i think 50% hike could be substantial for those who refinanced their homes over the past two years to the max to withdraw money and bought other properties to flip. So i think the adjustment will definitely dependent on the holding power of the so called speculators/investors.

for very high end properties (>700K) i would think that most of the owners are those with stronger holding power but for the middle-high end condos, while the middle class is struggling to get on to move to the wealthy class, they could have taken the unnecessary risk over the past two years. No many born rich rite?? so maybe these properties will be adjusted sooner ?

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...92&sec=business

although OPR may only increase in the later part of the year, but BNM could increase the SRR, doe anyone know the impact of SRR on BLR? i think a hike does increase the banks' cost, so the increase could be transferred over to customers (meaning you and me)? Experts pls enlighten.

meanwhile, with neighhouring countries increasing interest rates (unexpectedly) there seems to be more pressure for Malaysia now smile.gif

This post has been edited by godutch: Jan 14 2011, 10:38 AM
godutch
post Jan 14 2011, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(epie @ Jan 14 2011, 10:40 AM)
i dun think 50% hike....its 50 points hike.....dun get confused between % and points
which normally translated:
current blr 6.3% to 6.8%
for me personally...it is still managable
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif it is 50bps or 0.5%, thanks smile.gif

yup, i do agree that they are smart middle class investors who did not stretch to the max over the past two years. But i also believe that they are many who did.


btw, came across this news:

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...36&sec=business

the target market is definitely for the rich. so, is it a signal that property price appreciation in M'sia is close to the peak and the rich starting to look overseas??? hmm.gif experts pls enlighten notworthy.gif notworthy.gif


godutch
post Jan 19 2011, 11:06 AM

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Singapore Developers cut prices following new measures

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-ma...ng-new-measures

will it happen in M'sia soon?


Added on January 19, 2011, 11:08 am
QUOTE(Jason @ Jan 19 2011, 10:38 AM)
i will only say, look at google maps in the urban areas and draw your own conclusion as to whether land is scarce in Malaysia in comparison to HK & SG. there's still empty land, even within walking distance of KLCC <15mins. our definition of scarce may be different.

all i'm saying is that prices need to normalize itself to levels that are sustainable. thats all smile.gif normalize != drop.
*
agreed!!

somehow think that this "land is scarce" idea is promoted by developers to gain big profit. Can't compare singapore/HK with M'sia as if i m not mistaken kuala lumpur alone (not klang valley) is bigger than the whole of singapore??

This post has been edited by godutch: Jan 19 2011, 11:09 AM
godutch
post Jan 19 2011, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Jan 19 2011, 11:58 AM)
High-end condo owners caught with rents down

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...ith-rents-down/

First sign of property bubble going to burst....
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so potential buyers, hold your horses? tongue.gif tongue.gif

but, maybe need more signs to see the trend ? hmm.gif


Added on January 19, 2011, 1:27 pm



http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...r-set-at-rm3000

High income job = RM3000 monthly salary??? how can a high income family (2 income family) with a monthly household income of RM6K (before tax & EPF) to afford a decent house at the current property price??

This post has been edited by godutch: Jan 19 2011, 01:27 PM
godutch
post Jan 19 2011, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Jan 19 2011, 01:47 PM)
if you want more sigh, actual you can go to all the property website, do a statistics how many already posted to sell within the six months. If its increase month to month, better you alert on it.
*
hi, thank you for the advise. Can elaborate more on how to get the statistics ah?

currently i'm only monitoring certain condos that i'm interested in (buying for own stay) and noticed prices have stagnant for a few months, a few condos' prices actually decline a bit (also notice condos that i viewed 2.5 months ago still in the listing), but suspect these could be isolated cases. If like what you said there's a way to have more complete statistics, certainly a good help.

thanks in advance notworthy.gif notworthy.gif
godutch
post Jan 21 2011, 11:58 AM

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Growth to slow, inflation trending higher, earnings deteriorating, living cost increasing, property prices???? hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

Investors shun Malaysia as emerging market outlook cools
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-outlook-cools/

Asia to see soaring prices in 2011, more modest growth
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-modest-growth/

TNB earnings hit by higher coal prices
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...er-coal-prices/

will TNB use this as an excuse to hike electricity tariff???

This post has been edited by godutch: Jan 21 2011, 11:59 AM
godutch
post Feb 21 2011, 05:45 PM

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Property talks/seminars are just biased.

Just think about this, how can the instructors or the so called property Sifus earn money from people who attend their talks/seminars if they went and tell people, "no worries, plenty of land", "property prices are going to drop"? then everybody busy selling, no one will attend their talks/seminars, the property sifus then will loss their income to FUND their properties smile.gif. Yes, i think they earn more money from giving talks then trading property biggrin.gif

Is the same as Property developers telling us that property prices will increase 30% in 2011, otherwise who is going to buy their new launches?

This post has been edited by godutch: Feb 21 2011, 05:46 PM
godutch
post Feb 21 2011, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 21 2011, 03:36 PM)
bubble burst.. i will get a house  smile.gif  its not like we got alot of thing to pay to the bank.. its our 1st properties... scare what ? the one scare is those who owned more properties and each month they have to fork out xx amount of money  biggrin.gif
fearing that price will drop lower > ownself set a limit lur.. those who set too lower.. end up the property price go up .. then its their own fault lo.. ;p  they can also do as below :
Property A : b4 bubble  > 500k    it drop to 400k, the fella wait.. drop till 380k , the fella wait again , it go up to 420k > 
a) the fella kept waiting cus they thought it will drop below 380k > if property keep on increase.. then its their own fault already lo
b) the fella buy at 420k > at least b4 bubble and after bubble.. can save 80k.. also worth what ~

depend on how we all set the limit ~  tongue.gif
problem now is, we kenot afford the properties now.. thats why wait for it to burst.. even if it become more and more expensive.. kenot do anything also what.. we kenot afford it..
*
can't agree more, for the genuine buyer, it's just a matter of affordability as house is a basic need. we just want to buy at a fair price not gorenged/speculative price.

when property prices drop to the fair price which could be roughly estimated using the discounted cash flow valuation (yield analysis), i will definitely buy FOR OWN stay. smile.gif
godutch
post Feb 21 2011, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 21 2011, 05:46 PM)
You probably never attend a seminar before
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not interested to help speculators finance their properties and not interested to learn GAMBLING smile.gif


Added on February 21, 2011, 5:53 pm
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Feb 21 2011, 05:51 PM)
Seminar: "How to get rich..."  first of all, join my seminar.

thumbup.gif
*
rclxms.gif good one.


This post has been edited by godutch: Feb 21 2011, 05:53 PM
godutch
post Feb 21 2011, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Feb 21 2011, 05:54 PM)
I'm praying to all the gods now, including the ancient egyption god Ra.

Currently the signs are good.
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noticed auctioned listings are increasing.

let's pray hard and continue to do our search, coz i find sometimes it is possible to see fairly valued (resonable yield/ bank value) properties, but just that don't get the "this is the one feel" as i am looking for a home biggrin.gif
godutch
post Feb 21 2011, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 21 2011, 06:02 PM)
+10 !!  ahahah.. depend on u liao.. since u pray to all the gods ! (when someone meets the end of the road.. and no place to go.. they will pray to god)
new properties now.. hard to get 100% fully sold.. especially the higher level one.. a good sign maybe ? smile.gif
plus need to blame those developers..  simply stick a red note stating all already sold..
after few months then increase few puluh k.. then say " aiya.. some of the buyers.. kenot get bank loan leh.. ok la.. now i release the unit .. who wanna buy.. come come.. its very hot.. super hot !! "
they not boring one oh.. keep on using the same technique..  =.=


Added on February 21, 2011, 6:05 pm

sad.gif too bad i dun like auctioned home.. duno inside how teruk it'll be..    sad.gif
somemore.. (duno how true is it) they all said, there's insider inside the auction.. they will try to raise the price of that property by joining the auction..
but duno what happen if they won the auction tongue.gif
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actually i am not interested in buying auctioned properties either (for own stay ma), but i thot increasing auction listings is a sign that the market will either be stagnant or may be adjusted.

I also noticed certain old condos were being auctioned at quite a hihg price so i suspect these are the properties that some no holding power speculators bought over the past 2 years but couldn't get tenant and in the end could not afford to pay mortgage. But not to say too many of them(so not sure whether these are isolation cases or not), so i am still monitoring while looking for my home sweet home.

Also noted that a house that i was interested to buy 4 months ago still unsold , didn't buy coz was 100K higher than bank value rclxub.gif , and now the seller lower the price by about 5%, still too high, am still monitoring smile.gif

This post has been edited by godutch: Feb 21 2011, 06:18 PM

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