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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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Iceman74
post Aug 23 2010, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Aug 23 2010, 08:34 PM)
Let's take stock of the western world which dictates "at least for now" where we are headed based on the ecomony.

Conceived in the optimistic haze of a post-war world, raised amid continuous inflation, growth and creation of suburbs, Boomers were the best-educated, healthiest, most urbane, materialistic and narcissistic generation ever. It was all about them. Still is. And their RE.

And this is a problem.

More than half of this 30% of the population have less than $250K US saved.  In the US these numbers are worse given there is no end to the housing bust.  About seven in ten have no pensions. Life expectancy is pushing 85, even for cholesterol-reduced guys. So what are they going to live on?

This is another reason why RE correction may await us in our little country of Malaysia.  To a sickly economy, asset deflation, household and public debt, rising taxes and no jobs, you can add demographics. Several 100's of million couples in their sixties will have no alternative over the next five years but to liquidate their real estate.

This will go on until 2015 until this situation is flushed out.  This is an unprecidented time when the boomer demographic and RE prices both have hit the top and only downside continues for those already correcting or those in waiting.

China is sitting on edge of Asset Deflation and Price Inflation just like the rest of the world.  This combination is the deadliest of all and will become an unstoppable force.  2015-2020 is the rebuilding phase, when Asia takes the reins but leadin up to it, those in non-liquid assets will take losses, some managable but most not!
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you nail it smile.gif
Iceman74
post Sep 3 2010, 09:46 PM

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(RM550x12)/RM60000= 11% return

very good investment biggrin.gif
Iceman74
post Sep 27 2010, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(hakon @ Sep 27 2010, 01:31 PM)
actually, i asked some loan officers before... the general rule ranges between 33% to 40% some banks allow up to 40%.

however, if you are one of the high earners (e.g. 20-30k a month), the banks will relax the limit for you... but this one got no fixed guidelines... go case by case...

*the above is only what i hear from the bank officers - i cannot confirm true or not*
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yes is true. you can loan up to 70% or even higher provided you have others supporting asset documents like FD cert.

the bank not afraid loan you, just afraid you dare not to take up the loans tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Sep 27 2010, 03:33 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 9 2010, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Oct 9 2010, 12:50 PM)
main reason property price went up was due to speculation of new launch properties. FLIPPING.
30% of RPGT will affect FLIPPING. if implemented, property price will go down, that's for sure.

those who say prices will go further up are mainly vested parties who reluctant to see this tax eat into their profits.
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agreed with you

btw if increase, why need increase 30%, they really dun know RPGT works
the increase will be marginal as the RPGT on profit only(profit 100K, tax 30k only mar)

for those who want buy for own stay..there is no "what time to buy"
just buy it if everything fit your needs, not like you move every few years
Iceman74
post Oct 23 2010, 06:09 PM

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have a read on this

http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyGuide/Finance/7698/0/0
Iceman74
post Oct 25 2010, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(bkfeng89 @ Oct 25 2010, 02:39 AM)
This guy must be on crack. Or maybe where he's sitting is too high up to see what's happening on ground level.
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i think he know what he talking about, just that he need to delay it until all his aunties/uncles unload the struck properties first tongue.gif

btw, since when our goven got caution/tell bad news to normal rakyat like us. mad.gif
after we all hit right into brick wall & scream for help, then goven will say help is on the way doh.gif

as far as i know, the properties price are preparing to go down
recently i got to know a 2.5 storey property in Puchong Jaya although the transaction price there around 650k above but the PBB valuation only around 550k(reason given, PBB said will value it on lowest valuation report)
& another case in Sg. Kapar Klang 1.5 storey, the buyer are first time buyer properties for own stay also cannot get 90% loan, can get max 80% only

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Oct 25 2010, 12:03 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 30 2010, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(klbull @ Oct 30 2010, 06:57 PM)
Try going back to 1970/71 ( the aftermath of May 13 ) and 1987/88 ( recession & Ops Lallang ) for the experience of a property market slump. If the government had not imposed capital controls in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, and then brought down interest rates sharply, properties would have followed the stock market and crashed as well. During the worst of the crisis in 1998,  short term Rgt interest rates went up to 15% as capital fled the country.
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yes & now we all have the symptoms of that now. Things are not look so rosy now & may turn ugly very fast if gov not intervene.
Iceman74
post Nov 3 2010, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(noproblem @ Nov 3 2010, 07:12 PM)
Why not? Selayang Spring condo already gave 20% for some buyers... I can see developers going upgrade this trick again as long they can convince bankers... smile.gif
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Developers can sell but the problem is, can the flippers sell after VP as there is no more another flippers buying it cos can't get cheap loan anymore
Iceman74
post Nov 4 2010, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Nov 4 2010, 02:21 PM)
how come this time dont see any comment like "jack up the price 30%"???
  hmm.gif
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lol rclxms.gif

let see got bank valuer jack up 30%? icon_idea.gif


This post has been edited by Iceman74: Nov 4 2010, 02:27 PM
Iceman74
post Nov 5 2010, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(Apscen @ Nov 5 2010, 08:30 AM)
u miss the point dude, jack up was not mean to get higher loan, it is just a move to get back 90% loan, it mean for new development where developer will offer u 20% discount in return, read back the previous post by others so u know what i am talking about.

bank n developer will happy of such trick, but gov will bz figuring out the controlling measure, und??
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this time bank won't join the party anymore, let see developers can use their brain juice more on develop new trick hmm.gif
Iceman74
post Nov 5 2010, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Nov 5 2010, 01:53 PM)
You guys need to put all the pieces together here, it's all in support of the bubble.  You can be part of it in it's final stage or be smart and watch it's demise.
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from what i know, BLR are set to increase follow by reintroduce back full RPGT(or worst, min 5% RPGT regardless of number of years holding) & GST after GE
Iceman74
post Nov 19 2010, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Nov 19 2010, 11:07 AM)
Quote from Canadian RE expert - Canada is noted as one of the big bubble countries yet to pop!

Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later. For example the US housing market peaked in the autumn of 2005 in terms of sales, but prices did not crest until two years later. The reason is simple. There are always people ready to buy a house who don’t follow the capital markets, monetary policy or leading indicators. Instead they have hormones, emotions and parents screaming at them to grow a set and get a mortgage.

So sales may decline, but prices stick. And as fewer foolish buyers show up with offers, more homeowners take their properties off the market. So listings fall (they are down 14% across the country from last year) while prices don’t (they’re within 1% of 2009 levels). This stage can last for some time – maybe a year, even – until economic conditions change, forcing people to sell their homes.

Those could include a moribund economy in which families have too much debt, rising interest rates or taxes, another financial crisis, or it could be house-rich retiring boomers realizing all of the above. Whatever. Once real estate has achieved unaffordable levels, and people realize it is both overpriced and vulnerable, then falling sales become falling prices.
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yup...these thing are happening now
being sideline beginning of this year
there are few of my seniors also doing the same or buying if there are bargain sales too good to resist(mostly in choice shoplot)
Iceman74
post Nov 26 2010, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Nov 26 2010, 04:00 PM)
"Of the 6,401 new residential units launched during the third quarter, which was a far cry from the 14,588 units launched in the previous corresponding quarter, only 20.2% found buyers."

why stilll see a lot of forumers say sold out sold out at recent launches one?
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this question need to ask those greedy developers
ask them when the next phase launch since soldout so fast rclxms.gif
Iceman74
post Dec 1 2010, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 1 2010, 10:23 AM)
Typical Government brainwashing. Thats the crap the Gov has been feeding us with for the last 53 years. You only do a currency conversion when you are a tourist. If ure living and earning in the local currency of that country you do not do a currency conversion.

Same with prices of cars. Why convert a USD$45,000 BMW 3 series to local RM when comparing with our damn Proton? U earn in USD, u pay taxes in USD, your daily expenses are in USD and your property and car purchase is in USD. So why the heck do u convert the currency to RM and claim the BMW is expensive???

Ask those who have worked and lived in the US. You can buy a nice hillside bungalow house overlooking the ocean in California for about USD650K. What can you get for RM650K in KL? Even my 18 year condo in TTDI costs RM 670K now.

And you still wanna say cost of living in Malaysia is low???  rclxub.gif
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well said rclxms.gif
Iceman74
post Dec 2 2010, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Dec 2 2010, 01:18 PM)
well, let me clarify again and listen properly:-
27k + tax amount for the 150k means 18% tax, every single dollar above 150k is 27% tax.
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latest should be anything taxable income above 100K is 26% for YA 2010 tongue.gif
http://www.hasil.gov.my/goindex.php?kump=5...it=5000&sequ=11

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Dec 2 2010, 02:06 PM
Iceman74
post Dec 9 2010, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(teoanne @ Dec 9 2010, 01:48 PM)
Eric is the big boss of Crest Builder.

but of course a developer's view will be.... tehehehehe
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more like big boss son lar tongue.gif
Iceman74
post Dec 22 2010, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(chunho01 @ Dec 22 2010, 09:59 PM)
Good! If the demand decrease, as everyone can't catch up with the prices, the seller will soon turn into desperate sellers. My reasoning is, since a lot of sellers are actually speculators, so their aim is to sell as soon as possible once the price of property increased to a certain value. If they are unable to sell their properties, the longer they hold, the longer they have to cough out monthly mortgage payments, which is not in their original plan. They will soon are willing to sell at lower than market prices.

Just to clarify with some more experienced investors, am I right? This is basically my logical opinion.
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not neccessary or not yet. there are still alot good news/things ongoing(QE2, GE & others)
just need a very noticeable ignitor to set fire down sales
but to how low or until when, nobody know
sometimes it is better prepare for worst (maybe 40% for certain place)
properties can goes 100%, sure can goes down at least 50%
Iceman74
post Dec 23 2010, 11:03 PM

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what make you think RE keep going up at this rate is a good thing. There are already sign that those big boss using excess cashflow from biz pump into these properties investment & Share Market. They are already distract from their main biz. If fact, they also encourage their staff doing it as well. Few of them told me their biz no good due to RE & Share Market distraction. That means 1 thing, all cash are into these so call investment. 1 small bump will cause a chain reaction.

for those want to buy a home, save as much as possible to put the downpayment. I believe bank will loan for the first time purchase as they will less likely default the payment anyway compare with those loaded with loan debt.

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