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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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Apscen
post Oct 15 2010, 12:18 PM

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The property bubble will burst if the government make it to, in other term ' over-react ' , i believe it is still rather a small and healthy bubble compare to US case, where ppls there can simply walk away or default the loan when they house value drop, the worst bank take over the house and sustain the loss itself, scenario here in Malaysia is very much different , where greater responsibility toward the owner if they default payment.

control is good and a gentle measurement is also good, too drastic change on RPGT and tighten loan did not help to grow the economy.
Apscen
post Oct 15 2010, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 15 2010, 02:01 PM)
again, for Malaysia the correction will come with the unhealthy downturn of the US market coming early November.  Remember the "Recovery" only happened through money printing (QE).  This has only delayed the inevitable and the REAL DOWNTURN is coming.

You are looking at the issue with Non Recourse Loans incorrectly.  Non-Recourse loans in the US gave you the opportunity to walk away and still the country is in dire straits.  Those countries with Recourse Loans and in bubbles right now, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, SING, China and to some extent Malaysia will get absolutely hammered when the next leg down in the US, UK and EUROZONE occur.

You will be happy when a property in KL or selected highly speculative KV locations drop 30% as you still may be able to manage to service the loan.  Those in other countries will be on the streets and paying for their speculation likely the rest of their days.
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when come to money, you want to save yourself or you want to save the bank or country? Non-recourse loan have directly encourage those owner to walk away so they can stop they loss immediately, i believe HK, and SG bubble will not lead to burst stage since their government has impose some extend to control it, and most are well aware of it, not like in US , where so much sub-prime loan is given out and eventually affected the prime loan market where all those who is capable to pay also choose to default when the property value drop below the loan amount, this chain reaction has trigger the crisis.

i really cant see any of the do fault by the US government in our country now, where bank still careful in approve loan, and the most root cause, the buyer, those younger generation buyer which at their mid 30 are now pretty highpay, and what more most of them are double income family, husband and wife both work, where they can easily get a 600-700k house and pay their installment comfortability everymonth, ofcourse i believe this group of ppls significant contribute to the hiking of property price now.

i am optimistic on local property market, i think the most it will stagnant when price reach to one stage, whether there is REAL DOWNTURN to come, that's external factor which laid greatly on US gov.

just my piece if opinion.
Apscen
post Oct 15 2010, 10:54 PM

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the budget has tell....the game is still on, grab a decent house before the price hit the sky !! rclxms.gif
Apscen
post Oct 18 2010, 11:39 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Oct 18 2010, 11:50 AM)
In the context to this country, first they wanna rescue is the political party, forget abt bank, rakyat want ever. Political top reason for policy implementation. Just see how the screw our education system and our future generation. $%#!

Tat's why the gomen always missing the point one. Do they care abt globalization? Do they care abt country competitiveness? Only recently they woke up from their wet dream started talking abt it.

Someone in the forum keeps referring to US. Think missing the point all together. Yes, US sneeze the rest catching cold, we have been hearing the same over and over again.

Question:- Have we ever recovered from Asian financial crisis? After Asian crisis, dotcom burst, then SARS, then 911, then gulf/Afgan war, then oil crisis, then US crisis, then euro crisis, H1N1 ..... bad news aft bad news but life goes on. Unless you intend to go hiding under cocoon resulting unemployment rate shoot up to 10% watever. Property/stock still go up wat even during crisis after crisis! 

Have we ever experience property/stock boom in 2008? Apparently global and Asian market having good time prior to the Olympic? Malaysia market, gloomy and boring all the while.

Might turns out to be good thing if US slowing going down, more foreign funds shifted over to Asia, incl. Msia hopefully.

Election coming to town, die die they will keep stock and property up. 1Malaysia mah. Let's all give them Mother of 1Finger in return in the coming election. biggrin.gif
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Well, almost miss your comment, i am pretty much agree on they always save their ass first, their colony, their won interest by using rakyat hard earn money. the US eco indeed very much connected to world eco, nothing we can do about it, property blooming now indicate that our internal $$ power is strong, though some might contribute by foreign investor, but who care? as long as the party is still on, buy a ticket join in n dun miss it.

Mother of 1 finger is good one, perhap it tell them dun simply said '1' when it is not really '1'.
Apscen
post Oct 21 2010, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Oct 21 2010, 09:56 AM)
my view on: 100% loan for below 220k properties - it is a policy that appears to be helping the lower income group but if we dig deeper, this doesn't do anything helpful

if a person is not able to save up a minimum 10% for the down payment, it is very obvious that the person is not financially ready to commit to a mortgage. gov is optimistically hoping that the person who bought a property at 100% would amazingly come out with extra RM600 - RM1000 for monthly installment. on the other hand, if a person who is able to generate extra income of RM600 - RM1000 at will (through MLM, freelance, etc) that person would not belong to income below RM3000 per month.

secondly, the biggest problem that the lower income group facing right now is NOT because they cannot come out with the 10% down payment. the problem is the affordable units are sold before they can take a move. a lot of insiders, group purchaser, through relationship, aunty uncle who are usually way richer than the lower income group have grabbed the affordable units before the lower income group can make a move.
i'm referring to new launches here, because for MOST people the first property that they want to buy, they do desire it to be a new one, rather than getting it from sub-sales.

if the gov insists this is a very helpful move, i can only see that it works in sub sales market which the first time home purchaser is very reluctant to go in.
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very much agreed, the gov could contribute to the bubble by allow bank to giving out too much subprime loan to ppls which are not afford to pay, when this amount become so huge, there is when the default rate reach peak, what happen when the default rate is high? needless to explain. good job Gov!

Apscen
post Oct 30 2010, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Oct 30 2010, 04:13 PM)
Malaysia has never experienced a property market crash, even in 97/98. Putting all hopes on a market crash, as some forumers seem to be doing, might not be the best move  wink.gif
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those will soon find them only afford subsales house, which directly boosting the property market, cause investor need buyers...without buyer, investor die....without investor, developer die.... without developer, economy die........this is property chain. so this group ppls completed the cycle.
Apscen
post Nov 5 2010, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 4 2010, 11:11 PM)
30% is wrong figure already.

if a property that worth 100K, with now 70% means 70K loan can get. In order to get back 100K loan, jack up 30% is not enough.

30% = 130k x 70% = 91k, jack up not enough.

Must jack up >40%, or 43%.

100k x 143 % = 143K x 70% = 100K.

So let's jack up 43%.  rclxm9.gif 

laugh.gif
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jack up 30% is enough to get back 90% loan lo, if all the developer do the same, we will see million houses everywhere, so where is the price drop? it will become sudden hike...... shocking.gif
Apscen
post Nov 5 2010, 08:30 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Nov 5 2010, 12:54 AM)
Don't be foolish, banker's valuer is not stupid...

You say jack up 40% then jack up 40%, then bankers are the one left with all default loans  doh.gif  doh.gif
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u miss the point dude, jack up was not mean to get higher loan, it is just a move to get back 90% loan, it mean for new development where developer will offer u 20% discount in return, read back the previous post by others so u know what i am talking about.

bank n developer will happy of such trick, but gov will bz figuring out the controlling measure, und??
Apscen
post Nov 5 2010, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Nov 5 2010, 01:42 PM)
this time bank won't join the party anymore, let see developers can use their brain juice more on develop new trick hmm.gif
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unless bank think money is stingy now, they are always part of the game, remember, at this hot property time, bank approves so much loan not because they are loose in the application, but because there are lot of application by cash rich ppls/investor, it categories as prime loan, which bank are happy to give.
Apscen
post Nov 29 2010, 10:32 PM

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obviously......thats what the gov do all the time.

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