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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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Bobby C
post Dec 10 2010, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Dec 10 2010, 04:57 PM)
Should be average. The numbers for the big towns in China are insanely high, guess most owned by foreigners??

Malaysia is moving up, 53.70%, no 43.
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Don't think so, most should be locals.

Even our Jap bosses said Chinese are cash rich, snapping up properties in HK with bag of cash, yup pure paper cash, tie up with rubber band like bricks... notworthy.gif. Even the Jap nowadays surrender to them, seeing is believing! But again, some of these might be what people call money laundering, cleaning up ill gotten gain in HK.

Bobby C
post Dec 14 2010, 10:56 AM

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When you look back at short history of what happening 1-1.5yrs ago, you will understand reason of sudden spike in price.

Abolishment of RPGT in besides reduction of OPR at the same time causing the spike. So who was the culprit besides blaming speculators, developers of course.

WHo else, GE is coming to town, santa clause has to look good, feel good, act good with plenty of gifts to give out even the world is crumbling down.

Globalization affect everyone, but over here you have to understand who is the taikor, who made the decision base on party party and party reason. Coz party means power, moeny etc. They will do anything to the extend of rewrite the country history and force every boys and girls to pass as reported in headline of The Sun yesterday. mad.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Dec 14 2010, 10:58 AM
Bobby C
post Dec 17 2010, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Dec 17 2010, 08:33 AM)
When I can rent for 40% of buying and take the 60% and re-invest with even moderate and LIQUID returns, WHY WOULD I BUY???


Your moderate LIQUID returns will turn out to be 60% ie if your return is 8%, NETT return is 'only' 4.8%. 40% is guarantee unrecoverable losses  tongue.gif


ETA on bursting, 12-18 months!  Watch CHINA my friends!

If China burst, your others investment probably in foreign currencies, stocks, commodities, unit trusts etc also not spare, downward trend might be even worst than properties. So how to protect ur investment? Gold ... now that the peak of Mt Everest?

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This post has been edited by Bobby C: Dec 17 2010, 09:22 AM
Bobby C
post Dec 17 2010, 09:42 AM

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For those who are desperate, may be you should evaluate whether is your need or you want.

Need is a roof over ur head, probably enough for your family in mid term say >10yrs down the road, location with all amenities, convenience with access, public transport, schools, shops etc. Price will be high but if you are not worry abt size, 2nd hand, leasehold watever, you can still find some reasonable ones though price also inflated quite substantial.

Yup you can get a place further/cheaper but dont forget every yr there are 600,000 new vehicles register in the country, most in KV and KV public transportation all talk no action for dockey yrs, MRT probably >10yrs, just think abt land acquisition etc going to take long long time ... if you buy wrong locations risk is price will hardly escalate, even at current peak there are many lelong properties around, many at not so Ong areas.

Want because your buddies also having the same or bigger, die die must be new properties from developer where price hike by >50%, die die must have foot on the ground v big garden so you can plant vege etc. Want because you succumb to peer pressure, then may be time to change mindset first before enter into property.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Dec 17 2010, 09:45 AM
Bobby C
post Dec 17 2010, 01:55 PM

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Guess things are difficult to change here in this country. Look at general comments, many still in same mindset. Basically there are 4 groups of people.

1st group, I’m in my comfort zone, roof over my head, good job, got my needs satisfy, my wants still in pursue, I don’t care the heck lah. (even lawyers in this category, tot they advocate human rights and stuff?!)

2nd group. I’m in my comfort zone. Ain’t happy, migrate lah. Bye.

3rd group. I don’t know. I don’t want to know. Oh, price increase so much. What should I do now?

4th group. 52 yrs. Cukuplah. Tak lapar lagi kah. Korea, Spore which 40yrs ago behind us already ahead of us. Thailand, Vietnam, Indo overtaking us. Save our younger generations. Without rampant scandals and corruption, we will be of better position (TI corruption index worsening after Dr M, tot before tat already bad, now worse). Vote for a change lah. We need 2-party system to have check and balance. Say No to one dominant party.

So which group are you in?

Ps:- Yup, off topic. But don’t you think country GDP, politics all inter-related esp here politics determine policies. History books also can be rewrite according to their whim and fancies.


Added on December 17, 2010, 2:03 pm
QUOTE(hanz079 @ Dec 15 2010, 02:25 PM)
You guys should chk out property prices in Kota Kinabalu, 2 storey terrace intermediate can go for 450k... Three storey terrace intermediate, i bought mine for 530k... Complain oso useless, dun buy, later price go up again, even harder to afford... so i juz close one eye and jump in... 160k in KK maximum can get a 850sqf apartment only.
Local KK ppl will know what I'm talking about.
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Understand KK International airport coupler with AirAsia bring in a lot of foreign tourists tat buying Sabah properties, weekend home, retire home watever. Tot read from some where. One Jap boss retire happily ever aft in Sandakan. Affordable house, cheap seafood, entertainment around, wat else do u ask for?

One thing undeniable AirAsia do bring a lot of low cost foreign tourists, like it or not, good or bad. Potential to affect property structure. Bring out a lot of local tourists/labours/students too nod.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Dec 17 2010, 02:17 PM
Bobby C
post Dec 17 2010, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(MonfereBlogspot @ Dec 17 2010, 02:23 PM)
Same here  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Ok, then miss out another group, care to eleborate icon_rolleyes.gif
Bobby C
post Dec 17 2010, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(hanz079 @ Dec 17 2010, 04:22 PM)
I'm in the 1st group.
Actually I dun ask for anything more, but frm the bolded part, understand that the couple is frm japan. Of course they say everything cheap mah.... Same like when I go to Phillipines, Thailand or Indonesia for holiday... I come back and say their stuff is cheap... but to the locals?
Understand that 30% of sabahans live in city and towns while 70% still live in remote villages... How do u think live is for them at these current prices?
How much is the average pay in KL? How much in KK?
Kuey Teow Goreng in KK kopitiam cost rm5.50... in KL?
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Kuey Teow goreng in KL ~ $4.50-$5. So KK more expensive, may be due to influx of foreign tourists. Similarly like JB, food more exp than KL due to Sporeans. Influx of low cost foreigners really scary in Sabah. Soon will be taken over by Phillipines.

Whereas Salawak swarm with Indos. But if without these legal/illegal foreigners, all palm oil plantations will be as good as becoming jungle. Bosses prefer cheaper labour than locals.

Construction cost of houses in Sabah/Salawak more exp than Peninsular. U know why?

Only a few taikors monopoly the entire market. Concrete, steel bar etc. Even the you-know-minister can monopoly the whole state from concrete, electricity, water, sewerage, properties, balak etc etc etc notworthy.gif

Looking at positive side, it is good for price increase, cut subsidies etc. So so like silent majority with tidak apa attitude will wake up from the wet dream and start asking, what happen to the value of my RM1 cp to 20yrs ago?

No offense, not referring to anyone here in the forum.

Bobby C
post Dec 19 2010, 01:43 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Dec 18 2010, 11:44 AM)
AUS is melting right now starting with the Goldcoast and Brisbane, down over 7% avg in last quarter.  It's an emotional bubble which will again come to and end but slowly as again governments go all in with stimulus.


Added on December 18, 2010, 11:54 am

Well Bobby, I see you know a thing or two about how the markets may play out.  The smart investor knows when to take profits and move into new opportunities that are adversely effected.  You have two choices, be savvy and actually get educated on how to invest or play the game of RE is the best of the bad bunch.

End game - the avg. family struggles to buy, then on the way down they struggle to service their loans, house/car/credit cards as Malaysian numbers suggest.

Smart sellers exit early, not so smart know enough to lower the price quickly to grab those still in denial, and for the rest, it doesnt end well.

I'm not calling for a collaspe here, but a slow downward spiral continuing for many years as we are at the top quite frankly in everything.

It will come down to not who made returns, but who protected them the best!!!!
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I like your word:- 'When I can rent for 40% of buying and take the 60% and re-invest with even moderate and LIQUID returns, WHY WOULD I BUY???'

If 30% of the population can think the same, landlords like us will be even happier man. If fact, many are already very happy even before the recent property spike. Tat why the very happy one usually keep to themselve and dont even happy to waste time participate here in the forum.

Putting 40% of investment sum into rental?! Tat's so call 'smart' investor? Come on, you can do better than tat. whistling.gif

Mind you there are distinct line that seperate so call smart investors cp to smart speculators. Smart investors looking at mid/longer term game plan. They will sit back relax after game plan fall into place. While so call smart speculators constantly worries abt global crisis, constantly swifting their funds around. Tell us since when there is no crisis aft 1997 or even before tat?

It is all abt how u manage your risk if worst case scenario happened. icon_rolleyes.gif

Bobby C
post Dec 28 2010, 04:22 PM

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Soon, many will realize formal education is only a license to work. If you trust in your paper qualifications, caught up with rat race aft graduated, similarly like some who are so caught up will world events, may be some day you will wake up and say, what happen to my money?

Old friend of mine from rags to riches whom didnt passed his SPM, wow saw the way he invested, negotiated, flipped, transfer land titles around, even VPs, docs, accountants also pants downs.

Just learn last sat the simple word of 'real estate'. Estate means tangible asset ie real assets. Not fake assets, paper assets made of numbers.

Yup, your tenants might run away, broke ur furniture etc. End of the day they cannot run away with ur 'real asset'.

Different from shares, trusts, funds etc. Even >100yrs companies can collapses, your money in some trusted funds can potentially wipe out overnight. 2008 just saw many overseas funds went down 40-50%. Profit accumulated over yrs wipe out in a matters of weeks.

Well, regarding real estate here, unless Malaysia gone into bankruptcy or war, touch wood, never ever happen in life time, your real asset should be safer than many others investments. At least under your manage and control. Not others manage for you. Of course not to buy new at peak esp from almost all developers now in KV, fry the market redhot. Its a con job and best is they allow to happen! Sales persons can do magic with they units that they are selling. Sell those difficult to sell one, slowly release the rest at higher price. Where got Malaysia Boleh standard?

Bobby C
post Jan 3 2011, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(yeowa @ Jan 3 2011, 03:20 PM)
Because human are selfish. They will do whatever thing to protect their own interest and will start complaining when something is affecting them. It is hard to be on the ethical line as none of us in this world can do that. We bound to do something unethical, but it is alright as long as we do not repeat the unethical behaviour when we know it is wrong.

Malaysia rich and poor gap is getting bigger and bigger with middle income group moving towards the poor group. Something for us to do this year if there is a GE.
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Guess nothing is unethical till shit hit the fan and those on the street feel the heat then only will they the majority complaining...typical Malaysia tidak apa attitude. Matter of fact, how many of us care even to register as voters or/and continue to vote for the corrupt to be in the office? Just look at recent minor hiccup on distorted history books advocate/force by Ministry of Education onto our Form5 students. How many in the country actually aware or even care to voice up?


Added on January 3, 2011, 5:34 pm
QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 3 2011, 10:23 AM)
Interesting enough, I do believe that Malaysia will not fall quickly but at moderate pace will drop 30-40% in the high end, 25% avg in KL and those selected KV hyped props.  Best guess is 10% nationally.
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That's not moderate drop, that's bubble burst! If that ever happened, wonder how about KLCI? 30-40% plunge?!

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Jan 3 2011, 05:39 PM
Bobby C
post Jan 5 2011, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 4 2011, 03:03 PM)
Yes, i renovated it and rented it for 2 years at double the basic unit usual rental. I recovered my renovation cost within this 2 years, and the last 1 year choose to keep it empty as my vacation home in Penang. Before that, there was problem of strata title, bad maintenance, developer's bankrupt, parking problems, congestion. All these are now solved since residents form their own management committee after getting strata tittle. Also some new highway was building nearby. The price of the property gained almost 100% from my initial purchase price, all these without being a speculator.
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I know one who did the same, not 1 unit but 6 units! Certainly not "accidental speculator". Local/insider knowledge is crucial. Not some world vision or you may call world disillusion. In the mid of uncertainty, one is still able to distinguish between value investment and over priced properties within the same area.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Jan 5 2011, 10:25 AM
Bobby C
post Jan 6 2011, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 6 2011, 01:54 PM)
鄭福成:建材沒漲價‧有人製造假象炒高屋價
國內  2011-01-06 10:06
(雪蘭莪‧八打靈再也5日訊)大馬建築商公會聲稱建材持續上漲造成屋價上漲的原因之一,但是,馬來西亞石廠商公會卻駁斥說,有人故意利用建材上漲使屋價上漲合理化,謀取暴利。

馬來西亞石廠商公會丹斯里鄭福成對星洲日報說,每塊紅磚約30仙的價格已經維持約兩年、洋灰也因需求下跌導致廠家必須削價刺激銷量的窘境,基本上除了鋼鐵的價格稍微有波動之外,其他建材都沒有上漲。
他相信未來建材起價的可能性也不高。

他說,由於有人故意製造建材起價的假象,導致市場混亂,發展商趁機起價,加上仲介的炒作,使大馬的屋價漲幅驚人。

“事實上建材並沒有上漲,洋灰還有很多囤貨,目前建築市場較淡,廠家還要每包洋灰暗扣3令吉來刺激銷量。”

本身也是發展商的他指出,就以他在柔佛的一個28間的店屋發展計劃為例,4個競標的承包商的競標價可以相差200多萬令吉,最低的出價700多萬令吉,而最高的則是1千萬令吉。

“我親自向這個出價最低的承包商瞭解,何以他能以這麼低的價格承包此計劃時,對方向他坦承目前的建材價格並沒有上漲,他的出價還是可以賺錢的。”

指屋價起得太離譜他說,他在滿家樂的屋業計劃建材價格也沒有更動;由此證明建材起價只是一種假象。

代理商接工廠通知
跟煤炭相關建材將漲價

建材代理商聲稱接獲建材工廠的口頭通知,即跟煤炭有關的建材如洋灰、鋼鐵和紅磚即將上漲。

建材代理商鄭先生對星洲日報說,由於全球最大的煤炭和焦煤出口之一澳洲發生大水災,導致國際煤炭和焦煤價格大漲,和煤炭有關的建材預料將在未來幾個月內上漲。

他說,未來幾個月和煤炭有關的各類建材如洋灰、鋼鐵和紅磚將會起價,預料今年將起約15%。

沒用煤炭煉鋼鐵
謝國培:影響不大

馬來西亞五金機械建材商總會會長拿督謝國培指出,目前大馬沒有使用煤炭煉成鋼鐵,因此並不受此影響;然而,大馬使用的以廢鋼煉成的鋼鐵,在生產國減少產量的情況下,也在今年每公吨上漲了約5%。

“目前五金店零售價每公吨鋼鐵是2千300令至2千500令吉左右;在這之前,每公吨的鋼鐵是2千200令吉至2千400令吉左右;批發價每公吨也只是相差100令吉而已。”

建屋用鋼鐵僅佔10%

謝國培指出,雖然鋼鐵價格上漲,但是鋼鐵在一間屋子的使用率只佔了10%,所以並不會對屋價帶來多大的影響。

該會建材組主任蘇清聯說,大馬並沒有受到煤炭和焦煤價格上漲的影響,因此紅傳與洋灰都沒有起價,而其他建材包括木材、沙、石頭都沒有起價。目前建築業萎縮,預料短時間內也不會出現大變動。

星洲日報‧2011.01.06
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Finally, the shit has hit the fan. So who are the conmen? Gomen together with conmen built built raise price to double, easy loan cum low RPGT, stir stir let the whole market roar! GE coming to town, Santa Clause need money to stir stir hangat hangat tahi ayam even Christmas over already. Those who bought brand new with double/triple inflated price, better forfeit your booking fees before kena wallop by the conments.

Yup, inflation has arrive yet again. Today lunch kopi, mee up by 10%. 1Malaysia, mit finger pointing up whistling.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Jan 6 2011, 06:35 PM
Bobby C
post Jan 7 2011, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 7 2011, 12:35 PM)
Consumers are being consumed by debt!!!!
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Guess you need to be more precise in your wild allegation.

There are 2 types of debt, good debt and bad debt.

Buying a car with 90% loan, 20% depreciation per annum in the first 3 yrs is a bad debt. Putting all your savings with into the biggest house the bank can loan for own enjoyment/show off can also consider bad debt.

Tat compare with someone who choose to stay in a smaller house (even he can afford a mansion) and put the rest of his money into land estates, properties, stocks, funds etc.

My old friend owned 30 over estates, properties and yet he only drove an old waja and stay in a link house. No need to talk big, win debate, fear global crisis. Talk is cheap.

wink.gif


Added on January 7, 2011, 2:42 pm
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 7 2011, 01:23 PM)
In Malaysia, Property has an unique role as hedge instrument against RM, I hv zero confident with our government ability to lift up our economy, 30 yrs back wat is the exchange rate against Sing $? Now? And 30 yrs fr now? if anything wrong like Zimbabwe, those who own clean real estate (without loan) are safe
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Nobody is confident with the way gomen wallup our taxpayers money. Just see the way they tender the MRT, 100 sty building, military astronomical spending on unsinkable submarine and local made combat vehicles which are more expensive than world best tanker M1 etc etc etc.

Putting all negativity aside, life has to go on. Yup, there will be crisis may be 2012, 2015, 2020 or beyond. It is how you response in worst case scenario. Instead of renting to expats just target workers, students etc, you investment still at work.

As some oldies said, in 1969, many sold off their assets and cabut lari. Later regretted. Recently met an old uncle. Said a lot Sporeans (ex-Malaysians) buying properties in KV as 2nd home. Even left long time still have attachment to mother land.

In the mid 80' i was a kid stayed in Spore for a mth. Heard the condo near Orchard 'only' S$150k. Many sold off everything and migrated saying Spore no hope liau blah blah. Tat time sentiment was so so negative, you cabut i lari, see who fastest.

In 98' Indo also in deep recession, but now, among the highest ROI if u own a property there. Even the country is in deep s***, how come still so many rich indos in Spore?!

It's all about local knowledge. How u turn s*** into gold.

Look at the positive side.


This post has been edited by Bobby C: Jan 7 2011, 02:42 PM
Bobby C
post Jan 8 2011, 10:55 AM

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During 97' recession, there are some lucky few, like my sibling, bought a new house in S_w_y D'sara ~$400k. Recession hit, developer gave 20% cash back ~$80k! biggrin.gif ... where on earth have you heard aft signing S&P you got 20% cash back one??!! Like kena toto during recession. Not so surprise their internal people wallup a lot of units, so to help internal people, some lucky external people also have their share.

Those speculative properties like shophouses in SS2 or may be mansions in DH, price will swing may be >50%. SS2 shophouses highest in 96' how much? 1.9-2.1M? Drop to 900k-800k?

Understand those medium high condo in Tropicana and houses in BU did not suffer significant drop hovering around <5-10% in general? Buyers suffer >10% BLR fr 1 yr. Any real life experience buyers can confirm? I wasn't in KL, took cover in other country.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Jan 8 2011, 10:57 AM
Bobby C
post Jan 8 2011, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 11:20 AM)
The most fear of property is not the price drop how many %.

The most fear :
1. the project being abandoned in midway. Buyers can do nothing.
2. the property located in ghost township.
3. the property has no buyer at all due to location wise issue.
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Spot on. Tat's why good developers play an important role. There are not many around.

Compares with stock, during 97', $18 becomes penny stock. $50+ becomes ?? $3??

Bobby C
post Jan 8 2011, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 02:18 PM)
It depended what stock you bough, you bought rubbish stock, then turn out rubbish loh.
Buy quality stock, then hefty gain, even though during peak time.
Eg. PBB, BAT, Genting.

Although timing does play an important role, sometimes, it is about quality of investment you made that dictate the outcomes.
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Yup you are right but not entirely. 97'-98' recession KLCI <300 points. Nothing spares. Anyone has historical chart of bluechips. Believe many gone below 50%.

Bobby C
post Jan 11 2011, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jan 11 2011, 02:28 PM)
lol  shakehead.gif tis thread is on property price going to drop? so far, the fats speaks for it  whistling.gif
previously cover on world macroeconomics, now we'll go into basic simple positive mindset  laugh.gif
just for reading pleasure & no need get so uptight  nod.gif

http://www.bloggersbase.com/philosophy/mil...e-manage-money/

http://money-making-online.myddnetwork.com...ich-dad-lesson/

Great sharing sulifeisgreat! Have to read and reread make sure sink into sub-conscious mind.

Very easy to forget what we read cause 95% of herd follow the same path. All seek bigger salary, bigger houses and the story never ends.

Tat's why one wise man once told me straight, 'please don't ever mention the word UPGRADING!'. It is a famous word in Spore. Think closely, think longer, think further. There are plenty of truth in it. Don't con by the developers/bankers ---->politicians. Plenty of marketing gimmick now esp new launch projects with pretty showrooms, buyers like fishes get caught in the net. Just see what happen after GE, whether will lose steam esp the new launch.

Think many who are complaining also looking for either landed or bigger houses. The story never ends.... smile.gif

Bobby C
post Jan 11 2011, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 03:38 PM)
Recession is just a parcel of the economy.
Economy boom and burst is always come in cyclical mode.
Neither one last forever.

So recession give your opportunity to buy quality investment asset during that time.
So why fear about recession.

Recession won't last forever, in fact, recession generally won't more than 2-3 years, from historical perspective.
And somemore, 97-98 may only happened once or twice in our life-time, it was an extra-ordinary event definitely not a norm.

Just fyi. Not only 50%, but even more.
Pbbank was 0.88
CIMB was 1.80

So same with properties, it is all about buying the right and quality properties.

Bare in mind, properties is unlike stock.
Listed company can go burst if under severe losses. So value can go to 0.

Properties cannot drop to 0 in value.

So invest in properties has less downside risk than stock.
While any quality asset will turn up fast when economy turn better time.
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Recession is part and parcel of the economic cycle, like it or not, instead of fear, why don't think of backup plan say worst case scenario, how are we going to response?

So talking about response during recession like 97'-98', isn't better to sell properties and buy quality blue chips? Properties down say 10-15%, bluechips down >50%. Sell properties then buy bluechip!

Opss, am I confuse the experts rclxub.gif laugh.gif

Bobby C
post Jan 13 2011, 01:21 PM

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Ok, for discussion sake, take condo as an example. Take 3 categories for comparison, high end, middle high and middle class. Just check the price chart. There was a slump in high end property in early-mid 2009. But middle class generally flat.

This forum started in Jul 2008 before global crisis. Crisis hit after 080808 olympic. So which segment was hitted hardest? While many are debating since 2008, how many entered in 2009 when bubble burst at high end properties? How many even feel the bubble cause many were not from tat segment?

So before you say bubble going to burst, yup you are half right. Which segment are you referring to? Which properties, which class, which area, which one ….

High end
http://www.propwall.my/klcc/marc_service_residence

Middle high
http://www.propwall.my/bandar_utama/1_bukit_utama

Middle
http://www.propwall.my/bandar_utama/pelangi_utama

Of course if refers to landed property chart will be different but generally highly speculative ones including 90% of new launches going will be hitted hardest if market sentiment turn negative. So if you wanna wait for bubble, go wait for those highly speculative ones. Conservative middle class generally will be able to withstand the rising storm if any.

RPGT will be implemented again after GE. Mark my word. Currently they cannot do tat else there will be no more flippers buying the new properties. The best flippers property I heard asking for Mont Kiara price but located near airport sitting on a formal dump side!!!

Not surprise need more funds from you-know-who for GE.

Bobby C
post Jan 13 2011, 05:36 PM

On my way
****
Senior Member
663 posts

Joined: Oct 2008
QUOTE(lucerne @ Jan 13 2011, 02:13 PM)
"The best flippers property I heard asking for Mont Kiara price but located near airport sitting on a formal dump side!!!"
whihc project is it?  i heard some of the sub sales 3-4 storey shops near KLIA is selling close to 1 mil
*
Oh, tat refers to old airport.

The clue is in LY.net/forum/property ... tongue.gif


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